I’m not going to tell you which ones I think are wrong, but I will say that their names rhyme with Mimmy Mollins Ratt Rolliday and Posh Peckett. If you haven’t voted yet, please feel free to do the right thing.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Happy Monday, and welcome to our latest poll. Manager of the Year is always a tricky one for me. What criteria should we use to determine the winner? If we look only at total victories, we ignore factors such as improvement from one season to the next. If we consider improvement from one season to the next, but overlook the fact that management spent an obscene amount of money to put itself in that position, we still miss a big part of the picture.

I usually try to balance overall performance with what our expectations were of a given team coming into the season. For example, in the National League, even though the Cubs improved greatly from 2006 to 2007, it was hardly surprising given all the high-profile moves they made over the winter to help enhance their chances of reaching the postseason.

In the American League, I like Cleveland’s Eric Wedge. This is mostly due to the fact that I badly misjudged the Indians’ chances in ‘07. Many others expected them to do well, and perhaps I should have been one of them. Instead, I had them finishing fourth in the AL Central and they made the playoffs.

The rest of the pack is tough, because no-one really surprised me in a good way. As I’ve said before, if Mike Hargrove hadn’t left the Mariners, I think he’d deserve strong consideration. Beyond that, I’m not sure.

But enough about me. Who gets your vote, and why?

Post from: Knuckle Curve

We’re getting crazy with the postseason awards polls (NL MVP, AL MVP, AL Cy Young so far). Did I say crazy? Okay, would you believe mildly enthusiastic?

My preseason pick was Houston’s Roy Oswalt. He had a nice season, but by my estimation he’s a borderline top 5 guy and has no chance whatsoever at winning the award. Still, I think he’s a good guess most years, even if San Diego’s Jake Peavy gets my vote for ‘07.

But enough about me. Who would you choose, and why?

Post from: Knuckle Curve

This poll has been running for a while, but it’s gotten a little closer than I’d expected. If you haven’t voted yet, please feel free to do so. Here are some previous entries that might help you make a decision:

• Checking In on the MVP Races
• Holliday Over Hanley?
• Who Will Be NL MVP in ‘07?

One of these days I’ll get around to looking at the American League race. Maybe even before the season ends.

[Update, Sep 23, 2007: As promised, here is the AL MVP poll. ]

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Jacob’s analysis is solid, but I disagree with the conclusion, mainly because it gives voters too much credit. Specifically, I don’t know that Prince Fielder will be penalized much for his defense if he keeps leading the league in homers, nor do I have confidence in voters’ ability to understand (or care) just how much Matt Holliday has been helped by Coors Field.

I think the race will come down to Fielder, Holliday, and last year’s winner, Ryan Howard. How would I vote? Not sure, but probably Hanley Ramirez (despite his defensive shortcomings) or David Wright.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Before I go any further, you should know my bias: I can’t stand Albert Pujols. He’s a brilliant player, and I’m willing to give him all the props in the world for that, but he often comes off as a pompous jerk who doesn’t mind showing up other players in his pursuit of greatness. Pujols actually reminds me a lot of Barry Bonds before Bonds gained notoriety for reasons other than being merely unpleasant.

So, that’s my bias. I respect the heck out of Pujols’ game but have no use for his attitude.

Did I purposely look to pick someone other than Pujols as MVP? Yeah, it’s possible. I also still like to bust out the contrarian card every now and then, although not as often as when I was younger.

More importantly, I think I’ve found a guy who legitimately could win the NL MVP this year. He plays third base for the Florida Marlins, and his name is Miguel Cabrera.

Cabrera hit .339/.430/.568 last year while playing half his games in a park that favors pitchers. He turns 24 the third week of the ‘07 season and has exhibited some very promising trends in recent years. Cabrera’s OPS+ and RC/27 have each improved every season he’s been in the big leagues, but one set of numbers in particular intrigues me:

 
Cabrera is tightening his strike zone in a big way. He’s seeing better pitches and doing more damage to them also. He was good to begin with, and he still hasn’t reached his peak years.

Folks, this is a scary talent. Of Cabrera’s 10 most similar players at Baseball-Reference.com, six are in the Hall of Fame, three (Andruw Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., Vladimir Guerrero) are still active, and Hal Trosky — well, he’s a story for another day.

Will Cabrera win the MVP in 2007? Considering that Pujols has finished no lower than fourth in the voting since he came into the league sixth years ago, he probably should be considered the favorite. But if you’re looking for a dark horse candidate, keep a close eye on Cabrera this year. He’s not quite in Pujols’ class yet, but the guy is a special player who still has room to grow.

Post from: Knuckle Curve