Sorry, I’ve seen these guys pitch a lot this year and they are excruciating. Both pitchers have the same approach: Let the batter hit the ball and hope that good things happen. It’s earned Fogg and his 60-60 career record the nickname of “Dragon Slayer.” It’s earned Hernandez a World Series ring.

There is winning ugly and then there’s this:

Three pitchers in MLB failed to break the 4 K/9 threshold this year: Hernandez, Minnesota’s Jose Silva, and Colorado’s Aaron Cook. Only Florida’s Scott Olsen had a higher OPS against than both Fogg and Hernandez.

I dunno if I can sit through this one. Maybe there’s a Small Wonder marathon on somewhere…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Let’s see what in store for Thursday, shall we?

• Rockies at Phillies, 12 noon PT — Dropping Game 1 at home with Cole Hamels puts Philadelphia in a very uncomfortable position. Rookie Kyle Kendrick put up a nice ERA and win totals, but his complete inability to throw the ball past hitters could present a serious problem against the Rockies, who tend to hit the ball hard when they make contact. Another rookie, the even younger and less battle tested Franklin Morales, goes for Colorado. (When is the last time two guys age 22 or younger faced off in a playoff game?) Morales held left-handed batters to a .129/.206/.226 line this year. It’s a tiny sample, so who knows how telling this will be, but — well, I was going to note that the Phillies’ lineup is stacked with lefties, but despite that fact, they actually hit southpaws a little better. Eh, rookie pitchers. Who knows.
• Yankees at Indians, 3:30 p.m. PT — Two pitchers with identical 19-7 records square off in Cleveland. One of them is a leading candidate for Cy Young, while the other benefits from 7.04 runs per game behind him. The Yankees scored 968 runs this year, which is obscene. They’ve gotten well above average production from every position except center field, where they’ve been merely okay. To say that C.C. Sabathia will have his hands full would be to grossly understate the situation. Cleveland’s offense is pretty solid as well, but it has holes — notably at second base and in the corner outfield spots. Guess we’ll find out whether good pitching really does beat good hitting…
• Cubs at Diamondbacks, 7 p.m. PT — Arizona won a battle of the bullpens in the opener. Two left-handers hook up in Game 2: Ted Lilly and the eminently average (75-75 career record, 104 ERA+) Doug Davis. The latter tends to put guys on base via the walk (90+ each of the past three seasons), but the Cubs tend not to draw walks. Only Derrek Lee (71) and Mark DeRosa (58) had as many as 50 in 2007. Among National League teams, only the Pirates drew fewer bases on balls. Irresistible force, immovable object…

Happy watching!

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Marshall Clow on boring pitchers:

Any time Steve Trachsel, “the human rain delay”, is pitching – that’s a game to miss.

Unless of course Nomar is playing and the idea of Trachsel pitching to Nomar makes you laugh – that would be the AB that never ended.

Tom Durso on the state of baseball in Pittsburgh:

The real shame is that Pirates management has filled such a glorious ballpark with such wretched teams, year after year. Pittsburgh fans deserve far better.

Vegas Watch on the value of innings eaters:

…the only argument one could really have against the Westbrook signing would be that they should have let him go to free agency and tried to develop pitchers in their system to replace him. It’s not like they could get someone comparable at a better price on the open market.

Rain Delay on not understanding Moneyball:

Obviously someone hasn’t read it, or got the meaning completely wrong. John Schuerholz’s book “Built To Win” devotes an entire chapter to beating the wrong things into the ground. JS found a way to completely bash the book, and I don’t think he read it or maybe someone just gave him a second hand book review.

Thanks to all for keeping the conversation alive. I can talk to myself all day (and often do), but I learn a lot more from listening…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

It’s time to decouple the save from the person who finishes the game, and start awarding it to the reliever who does the most to increase the chance of his team winning. This should encourage managers to use their best pitchers in game situations, and still allow these pitchers to gather saves to use to negotiate contracts.

Of course, he’s right. The contract negotiation issue is an important point. Saves are viewed by many as the definitive stat for relievers, which means that closers typically are more expensive than their seventh- and eighth-inning brethren. (This, incidentally, can be exploited by small-market teams that choose to spread wealth across several middle relievers rather than dump all their money into the ninth-inning basket, but I digress.)

Pinto offers a set of rules that seem fairly straightforward to folks who are accustomed to analyzing such things. Sure, other people may be confused by a save rule that follows Pinto’s model, but is the goal of a statistic to be easily understood or to measure something meaningful?

As with everything else in baseball, if change does occur, it will do so at its own pace. In other words, you are advised to keep breathing…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

The Crank digs deep, back into the 19th century, and finds that early southpaws weren’t particularly effective. He cites the creation of the American Association in 1882 as the first breakthrough for lefties, noting that “startup leagues are often quicker to process innovation.” The second key point came two years later, when pitchers began throwing overhand.

Fascinatingly, in 1919, there were eight right-handers with 300 career wins and only one left-hander (Eddie Plank). In fact, Plank was the only lefty in history with even 200 wins to that point.

It’s interesting, to me, to see how various trends evolve over time. The Crank’s piece on the place of left-handed pitchers in the history of baseball makes for a thought-provoking read…

Post from: Knuckle Curve