Knuckle Curve » prospects

Where Are They Now: Top Prospects of ‘98, #21-30

Geoff Young — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 07:14:23 +0000

Previously…

J.D. Drew and Ila Borders were playing in the Northern League. Kevin Mench led the NCAA in home runs, while Brian Roberts led in stolen bases. You guessed it, we’re back in 1998 for our latest look at baseball’s best prospects from that year. Sit back, relax, and enjoy…

Darnell McDonald, OF, Baltimore Orioles. McDonald is a very fast man who can’t hit. On the Robinson scale, he is more Kerry than Frank. The Orioles took McDonald with the 26th pick overall in 1997. He had one decent year in the minors, in 2002, when he hit .290/.362/.445 at Double- and Triple-A as a 23-year-old. McDonald saw limited action for Baltimore in 2004 and again for the Minnesota Twins in 2007. His big-league line is .143/.200/.167 in 45 plate appearances. He’s hit .269/.330/.390 over parts of 11 seasons in the minors and he needs just three more stolen bases to reach 200.
Brian Rose, RHP, Boston Red Sox. Rose and Carl Pavano sure generated a lot of buzz back in the day. That’s what happens when you play in the Red Sox organization. Boston picked Rose in the third round of the ‘94 draft. He posted some decent surface numbers in the minors but had trouble putting the ball past hitters even at Double-A. That usually doesn’t translate into big-league success, and Rose was no exception. Over parts of five seasons, he finished with a 15-23 record and a 5.86 ERA (87 ERA+). Rose continued to toil in the minors through 2005, when he went 5-6 with a 6.82 ERA at Triple-A Louisville in the Reds organization.
Ryan Anderson, LHP, Seattle Mariners. In retrospect, perhaps hanging the moniker “Little Unit” on the young hurler wasn’t such a great idea. Not that Anderson’s career would have turned out any better necessarily, but comparing an 18-year-old kid to one of the dominant big-league pitchers of his generation isn’t exactly fair. Either way, Anderson never made it. He had three reasonably successful minor-league seasons, then got hurt, then briefly resurfaced in the Milwaukee Brewers organization, then disappeared. In 75 minor-league starts, Anderson went 20-27 with a 4.05 ERA. He’ll turn 29 in July. Maybe the next time you order a steak, he’ll be the guy who cooks it for you.
Matt Anderson, RHP, Detroit Tigers.. Throwing hard is great, but it’s no substitute for knowing how to pitch. The Tigers drafted Anderson and his triple-digit heater with the first pick overall in 1997. After 30 dominant (0.66 ERA) minor-league appearances, Anderson got the call and gave the Tigers 44 innings of 3.27 ERA (144 ERA+) in ‘98. The 6.34 BB/9 should have been a warning sign. Anderson was roughly league average in 2000, at age 23, and saved 22 games (despite an 88 ERA+) the following year. After a couple of injury-marred seasons, Anderson popped up with the Colorado Rockies in 2005 and worked 10 uninspired innings for them. He spent ‘06 in the Giants organization, posting a 9.26 ERA over 26 appearances at Triple-A Fresno.
Eric Milton, LHP, Minnesota Twins. The New York Yankees selected Milton with the 20th pick overall in 2006, just ahead of right-handers Jake Westbrook and Gil Meche. After just one season in the minors (and only 14 starts above A-ball), Milton headed to Minnesota as part of the package that put Chuck Knoblauch in pinstripes. Milton had a bumpy rookie campaign, but then pitched reasonably well from 1999 to 2002. He missed most of 2003 due to injury and then was traded to Philadelphia after the season. Milton enjoyed one so-so season with the Phillies before moving on to Cincinnati, where he and Reds fans endured one of the worst performances ever by a starting pitcher. He rebounded somewhat in 2006 before spending most of ‘07 on the shelf. Now 32 years old, Milton owns a career 87-84 record with a 5.01 ERA (93 ERA+) over parts of 10 seasons. His most comparable pitchers by age are guys like Jose Lima, Esteban Loiza, James Baldwin, Shawn Estes, Darren Oliver… have you fallen asleep yet? Anyway, Milton also managed to spin a no-hitter back in ‘99. That almost certainly will end up being the highlight of his career.
Russell Branyan, 3B, Cleveland Indians. Branyan probably deserved a better career than he’s had. Unfortunately, he strikes out at a legendary rate, and many decision makers view that particular type of out as worse than other types. The Indians tabbed Branyan with their seventh-round pick in the 1994 draft. In ‘96 he put himself on the prospect map by launching 40 homers in the South Atlantic League. The next year, he pounded 39 more in the Carolina and Eastern Leagues. Branyan got cups of coffee with the big club in ‘98 and ‘99, and split 2000 between Cleveland and Triple-A Buffalo. In 2001, his first full big-league season, Branyan hit .232/.316/.486 (108 OPS+) with 20 home runs in 361 plate appearances. He also fanned 132 times, which really is amazing. In ‘02, he hit 24 more homers with the Indians and Reds, to whom he was traded (for Ben Broussard) in June. Since then, Branyan has never had as many as 300 plate appearances in a season. He has produced, though — specifically homers, walks, and strikeouts (three true outcomes). Over parts of 10 seasons, Branyan owns a .229/.327/.478 (107 OPS+) batting line. He also has struck out in 34.8% of his trips to the plate. The latter number will keep him from ever getting a chance to start, but figures to endow him with a cult following long after his career has ended (Ken Phelps and Rob Deer send their regards).
Bruce Chen, LHP, Atlanta Braves. Chen, who had one of the more fascinating backgrounds of this group, first signed with the Braves in 1993 as a 16-year-old. After three years of Rookie and Short-Season ball, Chen moved up to the South Atlantic League in 1997 and at times dominated. He finished 12-7 with a pedestrian 3.51 ERA but a stellar 11.22 K/9 and 4.14 K/BB. He split the next season between Double- and Triple-A, and even made four starts for Atlanta. Chen split 1999 between Richmond and the big club, and in 2000 he worked out of the Braves bullpen before being traded to Philadelphia in July for Dennis Cook and Turk Wendell. Since then, Chen has bounced around the league, pitching for nine teams in 10 years. He appeared to break through in 2005 with the Orioles, when he went 13-10 with a 3.83 ERA (113 ERA+), but his game fizzled the next season. Chen made five relief appearances for the Texas Rangers in 2007. Now a few months shy of 31, he owns a 35-37 career record and a 4.63 ERA (95 ERA+).
Scott Elarton, RHP, Houston Astros. A lot of smart baseball people I know were really high on Elarton after his strong showing (124 IP, 3.48 ERA, 128 ERA+, 8.78 K/9) as a swingman for Houston in 1999 at age 23. Unfortunately, his career didn’t unfold quite the way they’d envisioned. Elarton, the Astros’ first pick in the 1994 draft (what a terrible year for first-round pitchers: Paul Wilson, C.J. Nitkowski, the late Doug Million, etc.), burst onto the prospect scene in ‘97. His ERA (3.85) wasn’t spectacular at Double- and Triple-A, but he struck out a ton of batters (well, 9.19 per 9 if you want to be technical). He followed that up with another solid season split between New Orleans and the big club. Then, after the fine ‘99 campaign we’ve already mentioned, Elarton spent the entire 2000 season in the Astros’ rotation. The good news is that he won 17 games. The bad news is that his ERA (4.81) was too high, and his strikeouts (6.12 per 9) had plummeted to an alarming degree. Elarton proceeded to battle injuries and a stint in Colorado before moving onto Cleveland and Kansas City, where things haven’t been much better. Over parts of nine seasons, Elarton is 56-60 with a 5.31 ERA (86 ERA+). His list of most comparable pitchers through age 31 is littered with uninspiring names. Actually, Sugar Cain and Phil Collins are cool names; they just weren’t exciting pitchers.
Grant Roberts, RHP, New York Mets.. The Mets tabbed Roberts in the 11th round of the 1995 draft. Two years later, he went 11-3 with a 2.35 ERA and strong peripherals in Low-A ball at age 19. In hindsight, my suspicion is that folks got a little too giddy over that initial success. Roberts saw his ERA balloon into the 4.00s over the next couple seasons, during which he experienced a concurrent drop in strikeouts. After working almost exclusively as a starter in the minors, Roberts shifted to the bullpen with the big club. He found some success in his new role, most notably in 2002, when he posted a 2.20 ERA (181 ERA+) in 34 appearances. Roberts was injured (shoulder) for much of the following two seasons, and last pitched in the majors in 2004. He got into nine games for Double-A Trenton in 2005, but hasn’t been heard from since. Over parts of five seasons, Roberts went 4-4 with a 4.25 ERA (97 ERA+) and 1 save.
Eric Chavez, 3B, Oakland A’s. Like Roberts, Chavez came out of San Diego. Taken with the 10th pick overall in 1996, Chavez passed up a USC scholarship and signed with the A’s. The next year, in an extremely aggressive move, the club sent Chavez to Visalia in the High-A California League. He responded by hitting .271/.320/.444 — not great, but certainly respectable for a teenager in that league. Chavez exploded the following year at Double- and Triple-A, and by the end of 1998 was well on his way to establishing himself as Oakland’s starting third baseman at the ripe old age of 20. Chavez enjoyed productive years from 2001 through 2004, before slipping a bit in his age 27 season. His last two campaigns have been truncated by injuries, and he appears to have settled in at a lower level of production. Now entering his thirties, Chavez owns a career line of .269/.347/.486 (117 OPS+) and has knocked 227 big-league homers. His list of similar players at the same age includes Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus, two other third basemen whose careers stalled a little earlier than anyone could have expected.

As always, thanks for joining me in our look back at the top prospects of ‘98. Our next installment includes a potential future Hall-of-Fame first baseman, a couple decent outfielders, and a guy whose career has taken some unexpected twists and turns. Until then…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Where Are They Now: Top Prospects of ‘98, #31-40

Geoff Young — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 07:34:01 +0000

Previously…

I think 1998 is right around when I first started to realize how difficult it is to develop a big-league catcher. Five backstops made Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects that year, and none of ‘em did much. Still, this latest batch includes a former home-run champion and a Cy Young Award winner…

Cesar King, C, Texas Rangers. As a Latin-American catcher stuck behind Ivan Rodriguez, King drew the inevitable comparisons. Unfortunately, King couldn’t hit. He never reached the big leagues, and his career minor-league line is .248/.311/.377 in 1665 plate appearances. King last played 12 games for Double-A Chattanooga in the Cincinnati Reds organization in 2002. He was 24 that year and hasn’t been seen since.
Dermal Brown, OF, Kansas City Royals. Brown’s is a familiar story: plenty of tools, not enough skills. He received one shot as a big-league regular. In 2001, at age 23, Brown hit .245/.286/.350 (63 OPS+) before losing his job. For a defensively challenged left fielder, that kind of bat just didn’t cut it — not even with the ‘01 Royals. Brown resurfaces every now and then, most recently for three at-bats with the Oakland A’s in 2007. For his career, he’s batting .233/.280/.333 (57 OPS+) in 874 plate appearances. Brown turns 30 at the end of March, but it wouldn’t surprise me if his stint with the A’s last year was his swan song.
Eli Marrero, C, St. Louis Cardinals. Marrero is the one catcher on our list who actually had a decent career. He’s also the one who had the most to overcome. Marrero first came up the big leagues in 1997 and got into 17 games that year. After a nondescript ‘98 season, he got the bulk of the playing time behind the dish and hit .192/.236/.297 (33 OPS+). That is epic: Since 1961, only 11 players have posted a lower OPS+ while logging 300 or more plate appearances. Marrero then missed much of the 2000 season due to thyroid cancer, only to come back the next year and hit .266/.312/.438 (92 OPS+) in 86 games. He followed that with a .262/.327/.451 campaign — and, oh, by the way, he spent most of his time playing the outfield, including 36 games in center. Marrero has played sparingly since then, most recently in 2006 with the Rockies and Mets. Over parts of 10 seasons, he owns a .243/.303/.411 (84 OPS+) batting line. He also has stolen 56 bases, at a slick 84% success rate.
Mike Caruso, SS, Chicago White Sox. Caruso, along with pitcher Lorenzo Barcelo, was part of the “White Flag” trade of 1997. The next spring, despite zero experience above High-A, Caruso made the big club. Amazingly he hit .306/.331/.390 (89+) despite hacking at nearly everything thrown his way. The same approach didn’t work for Caruso in 1999, and he spent the next two seasons at Triple-A — first with the White Sox affiliate, then with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays organization. He didn’t hit a lick either place. Caruso got into 12 games for the Royals in 2002, then apparently retired at the ripe old age of 25.
Ryan Minor, 3B, Baltimore Orioles. Minor was sort of Joe Borchard’s predecessor. Like Borchard, Minor excelled in another sport (basketball), had tools that made scouts drool, was always old for his level, and lacked the necessary skills to play baseball in the big leagues. One in a line of “replacements” for Cal Ripken Jr., Minor saw action in parts of four seasons and hit .177/.228/.259 (26 OPS+). Minor last played at Double-A Charlotte (Marlins) in 2004 at age 30, and had more strikeouts than hits. Minor knocked five home runs during his brief career. His victims weren’t exactly household names: Terry Adams, Nelson Figueroa, Dan Perkins, John Snyder, and Ed Yarnall.
Troy Glaus, 3B, Anaheim Angels. Hey, look, a prospect who turned into a star. It happens. The Angels took Glaus with the third pick overall in the 1997 draft. Glaus, who had played some shortstop at UCLA, immediately turned into a full-time third baseman. He also immediately destroyed minor-league pitching, to the tune of .307/.396/.641 in 109 games at Double- and Triple-A. By the end of his first pro season, Glaus was Anaheim’s starting third baseman. He hit 29 homers in his first full season and followed that up by knocking 47 and winning the AL home-run title at age 23. Glaus has continued to produce ever since, albeit not to those early levels. He also has had trouble staying healthy. Even still, over parts of 10 seasons he’s hitting .254/.358/.500 (121 OPS+), with 277 home runs. Two of Glaus’ most similar players through age 30 are in the Hall of Fame (although both Mike Schmidt and Reggie Jackson had a much higher OPS+). Glaus bears stronger resemblance to Matt Williams or the man for whom he was traded this past winter, Scott Rolen.
Rolando Arrojo, RHP, Tampa Bay Devil Rays. One of the Cuban defectors from the mid- to late-’90s (Ariel Prieto, Livan Hernandez), Arrojo featured a funky delivery that kept hitters off balance all throughout his rookie season. He went 14-12 with a 3.56 ERA (133 ERA+) in 1998 and finished second to Oakland outfielder Ben Grieve in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Arrojo slipped considerably each of the next two seasons before rebounding as a reliever for the Red Sox in 2001. After appearing in 29 more games for Boston in 2002, Arrojo pitched nine innings at the Yankees’ Triple-A club in Columbus the following year before calling it quits at age 34 (or thereabouts). Arrojo left the game with a 40-42 record and 4.55 ERA (108 ERA+) in exactly 700 innings.
Roy Halladay, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays. What I remember about Halladay’s early years is that he had week peripheral numbers in the minors and then almost spun a no-hitter in his second big-league start. In his first full season, 1999, Halladay went 8-7 with a 3.92 ERA (126 ERA+), but it screamed fluke. His K/9 was below 5, his K/BB was right around 1, he gave up a lot of hits, and he was prone to serving up the long ball. In short, Halladay looked like a great candidate to collapse, and that’s just what he did the next year — in spectacular fashion. He became the 12th pitcher since 1900 to work at least 60 innings and post an ERA+ below 50 (and the only one whose ERA reached double digits). So in 2001 the Blue Jays kicked Halladay all the way back to High-A and reinvented him. He returned to the big club and pitched very well down the stretch. The next year he won 19 games and made the All-Star team. A year after that he won 22 and took home the Cy Young Award. Halladay has battled injuries since then but he’s been remarkably effective when healthy. Through parts of 10 seasons he’s 111-55 with a 3.63 ERA (128 ERA+). Nice comeback, eh?
Braden Looper, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards selected Looper out of Wichita State with the third pick in the 1995 draft. A closer in college, Looper was shifted to starting duty as a pro, but that experiment soon ended and he returned to the bullpen. After two seasons in the minors, Looper came up to the big club in September 1998, made four appearances, and then got shipped to Florida in a deal for shortstop Edgar Renteria. With the Marlins, Looper embarked on his career as generic middle reliever, although his high draft status probably netted him a few more saves than most guys with his skill set. Looper’s best season came in 2004, when he notched 29 saves with the New York Mets and posted an uncharacteristic 2.70 ERA (158 ERA+) in 83 1/3 innings. Last year, after 572 consecutive relief appearances to start his career, Looper made his first big-league start. He went on to make 30 of them in a performance that is best described as “adequate.” For his career, Looper owns a 46-44 record with a 3.88 ERA (110 ERA+) and 103 saves. He also has proven extremely durable, which is more than can be said for his predecessor as closer at Wichita State, Darren Dreifort.
Ruben Rivera, OF, San Diego Padres. My two enduring (if not endearing) memories of Rivera are the time he launched a ball into the upper deck at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia and the time he entered as a pinch-runner and promptly got picked off first base to end the game on the third-to-first move that never works. I doubt I’ll ever see a more exasperating player in my lifetime. Originally signed by the New York Yankees, Rivera came to San Diego in the Hideki Irabu trade. Rivera spent two seasons as the Padres starting center fielder and displayed an incredible inability to hit a baseball. He later spent time with the Reds, Rangers, and Giants, but didn’t do much with any of those clubs. Actually, he made one of the worst baserunning blunders in history while with the Giants (no video is available, so you’ll have to settle for a description that doesn’t do it justice). Rivera also once allegedly stole a glove from teammate Derek Jeter. Scouts like players who have tools, not players who are tools. Over parts of eight seasons, Rivera, who is the cousin of Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, hit .216/.307/.393 (82 OPS+). At last check, Rivera was swinging and missing for the White Sox’s Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte in 2006 at age 32.

As always, thanks for joining me in our look back at the top prospects of ‘98. Our next installment includes a very tall pitcher, a very homeriffic pitcher, the ultimate Three True Outcomes hero, and pretty good third baseman who looked like he’d be better than he is. Until then…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Where Are They Now: Top Prospects of ‘98, #41-50

Geoff Young — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 07:19:52 +0000

Previously…

California bans smoking in bars and restaurants, 19 countries in Europe forbid human cloning, the Unabomber enters a guilty plea — and that’s just in January! You guessed it, we’re looking back at 1998 again. In this installment, we enter the top half of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects. Sit back, relax, and try not to think about George Michael getting arrested in a park restroom…

Francisco Cordero, RHP, Detroit Tigers. Cordero always had a great arm — when it was healthy, that is. After bursting onto the scene in ‘97 at Western Michigan (54.1 IP, 0.99 ERA, 4.47 K/BB), Cordero appeared in 18 games the next season before blowing out his elbow. He bounced back strong in 1999 and then was traded to the Rangers that November as part of the package that brought Juan Gonzalez to Detroit. Cordero’s first full big-league season didn’t go so well (77.1 IP, 5.35 ERA, 1.02 K/BB), and then he missed most of the following year due to injury. Cordero came back in 2002 and pitched well in the second half. Since then, he’s been one of the more effective relievers in baseball. Cordero, who turns 33 in May, signed a big contract with Cincinnati this past off-season. Over parts of nine seasons, he is 26-27, with a 3.29 ERA (146 ERA+) and 177 saves.
A.J. Hinch, C, Oakland A’s. The A’s selected Hinch out of Stanford in the third round of the 1996 draft. He appeared to be on the fast track when, in his first pro season, he hit .328/.408/.568 in 520 plate appearances between Single- and Triple-A. Hinch claimed the starting job in Oakland the next year and batted .231/.296/.341 (69 OPS+) in 391 plate appearances. That was really his only shot at a regular gig in the big leagues, as he yielded first to veteran Mike Macfarlane and then to fellow prospect Ramon Hernandez. Hinch kicked around for a few more years before retiring in 2005. Over parts of seven seasons, he hit .219/.280/.356 (65 OPS+) in 1075 plate appearances. Among his career highlights: On August 10, 1999, Hinch launched a homer off Roger Clemens. Since his playing days, Hinch has stayed in the game and currently is working in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization.
Carlos Lee, 3B, Chicago White Sox. It may be difficult to imagine that Lee started out as a third baseman, but he did. He also hit at every level, which made his move off the hot corner more palatable. The questions with Lee were whether he would ever learn to draw a walk and how much power he would develop. His minor-league numbers (.306/.343/.463 in 2338 PA) suggested a good hitter who figured to derive much of his value from batting average. His rookie season with the Sox did nothing to dispel that notion: he hit .293/.312/.463 (with a remarkable 13 BB in 517 PA). After a couple more solid but unspectacular campaigns, Lee broke out in 2002, batting .264/.359/.484 (120 OPS+). Lee more or less has maintained that level ever since. Now with the Houston Astros, Lee owns a career .288/.342/.499 (114 OPS+) line in 5726 plate appearances. His list of comparable players through age 31 includes Hall of Famers Billy Williams and Dave Winfield, as well as contemporaries Paul Konerko, Shawn Green, and Derrek Lee.
Luis Rivera, RHP, Atlanta Braves. Rivera’s minor-league credentials are impressive. For his career, he compiled a 3.47 ERA and fanned 10.51 batters per 9 innings. The trouble is, he worked a total of 280 innings during that time. Rivera made seven big-league appearances for Atlanta and the Baltimore Orioles in 2000, going 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA.
John Patterson, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks. Taken by Montreal with the fifth pick overall, Patterson became one of the “loophole free agents” when the Expos failed to offer him a contract in the time allotted. The Diamondbacks then signed him for $6 million. Although Patterson showed signs in the minors (most notably in ‘98, when he posted a 2.83 ERA at High Desert, a notorious hitters park), he didn’t dominate with any kind of consistency. He made cameos with the big club in 2002 and 2003 before being shipped back to Montreal for journeyman left-hander Randy Choate. In 2005, his first full big-league season, Patterson went 9-7 with a 3.13 ERA (130 ERA+) in 198 1/3 innings. Since then, he’s mostly been hurt. Over parts of six seasons, Patterson is 18-25 with a 4.32 ERA (100 ERA+).
Ricky Ledee, OF, New York Yankees. The Yankees tabbed Ledee in the 16th round of the 1990 draft. He didn’t play until ‘92 and didn’t reach Double-A until ‘95. When he finally got there, Ledee hit a ton and quickly advanced to Triple-A. In 1996, he hit .305/.380/.576 at two stops. A groin injury limited Ledee to 50 games the next year, but George Steinbrenner refused to part with him in the Hideki Irabu deal (the Padres settled for Ruben Rivera instead). In his 1998 Minor League Scouting Notebook, John Sickels compared Ledee to Paul O’Neill. Unfortunately reality had other ideas. Ledee has spent parts of 10 seasons in the big leagues and only once amassed as many as 300 plate appearances in any one of them. For his career, he’s hit .243/.325/.412 in 2307 plate appearances. His biggest claim to fame probably lies in once being traded for David Justice.
Derrek Lee, 1B, Florida Marlins. Lee was taken by the San Diego Padres with the 14th pick overall in the 1993 draft — two picks after the Astros picked Billy Wagner and one before the Blue Jays snagged Chris Carpenter. The Padres wasted no time with Lee, sending him to High-A Rancho Cucamonga the following year at age 18. Not surprisingly, the youngster struggled (.267/.331/.373) and repeated the level in ‘95, with much better results (.301/.363/.494). Lee continued to post big numbers as he moved up the ladder, receiving a brief audition in San Diego toward the end of 1997. He even knocked his first big-league homer in the season’s final contest — a game-winning three-run blast off the Giants’ Corey Bailey in the 11th inning. That December, Lee was traded to Florida, where the Marlins were busy dismantling the team that had just won the World Series. Kevin Brown headed to San Diego, and Lee enjoyed a few productive seasons in Miami before moving onto the Cubs. With Chicago, the rangy first basemen became a serious MVP candidate in 2005 thanks to a .335/.418/.662 performance. In parts of 11 seasons, Lee owns a .281/.367/.502 (124 OPS+) batting line. Among members of his draft class, only Alex Rodriguez, Scott Rolen, Jermaine Dye, and Richie Sexson have hit more homers. Wow, that was quite a draft class (and we’re not even counting Corey Dillon, picked by the Padres in the 34th round).
Alex Gonzalez, SS, Florida Marlins. Not to be confused with a slightly older shortstop of the same name, this Alex Gonzalez bears strong resemblance to — well, the other Alex Gonzalez. The Gonzalez who was a prospect in ‘98 showed some power in the minor leagues but little else. Although he hit 19 homers in Double-A at age 20, his overall line was just .254/.296/.434. After a similarly lackluster campaign at Triple-A, Gonzalez took over for the departed Edgar Renteria and hit .277/.308/.430 (91 OPS+) in 591 plate appearances. Gonzalez suffered through a Punto-esque sophomore season before rebounding somewhat in 2001. After several more interchangeable seasons with the Marlins, Gonzalez spent a year in Boston and played for the Reds in 2007. Over parts of 10 seasons, he owns a .248/.295/.399 (80 OPS+) batting line.
Ben Davis, C, San Diego Padres. Davis was taken with the second pick overall in the 1995 draft — after Darin Erstad and before Jose Cruz Jr. Sent to the California League at age 19, Davis was overmatched, batting .201/.266/.286 at Rancho Cucamonga in ‘96. He repeated High-A the next year and his numbers improved. In 1998, Davis moved up to Double-A Mobile and hit .286/.349/.460. Davis split the following season between Triple-A Las Vegas and San Diego; he hit .244/.307/.361 during his stint with the big club. After shuttling between Vegas and San Diego again in 2000, Davis took over as the Padres everyday catcher in 2001, hitting .239/.337/.357 in 526 plate appearances. That December, Davis was shipped to the Mariners, but his career stalled in Seattle. He never could overtake Dan Wilson as the #1 catcher and eventually was traded to the White Sox in June 2004. Davis hasn’t been seen in the big leagues since that season. He owns a career line of .237/.306/.366 (78 OPS+) in 1698 plate appearances. Davis spent 2007 back at Las Vegas (now a Dodgers affiliate), where he hit .218/.281/.282 in 36 games. Now 31 years old, Davis appears to have missed his opportunity at a big-league career.
Willie Martinez, RHP, Cleveland Indians. Martinez never posted eye-popping numbers in the minors. His best season came in 1997, when at age 19, he went 8-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 137 innings. On June 14, 2000, he made his only big-league appearances, working three innings against the White Sox. He allowed one hit (Jeff Abbott) and recorded one strikeout (Frank Thomas). Martinez’ final season came in 2002, when he got into four games for Double-A Chattanooga in the Reds organization. He was out of baseball by age 24.

As always, thanks for joining me in our look back at the top prospects of ‘98. Our next installment includes a Cy Young Award winner and a home-run champ, among many others. Until then…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Where Are They Now: Top Prospects of ‘98, #51-60

Geoff Young — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 07:43:10 +0000

Previously…

America was listening to Fuel, Everclear, Creed (noooooo!!!!), Barenaked Ladies, and the dulcet tones of Rammstein. Lethal Weapon 4 was playing in theaters, because if ever a movie franchise screamed out for a fourth movie, it was Lethal Weapon. Or maybe Police Academy.

Meanwhile, baseball’s best and brightest young prospects were working their way up the ranks. Our latest installment includes a couple of All-Star outfielders as well as the usual assortment of characters who saw their dreams dashed somewhere along the way…

Michael Coleman, OF, Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox selected Coleman out of a Tennessee high school in the 18th round of the 1994 draft. After a couple lackluster seasons in the low minors, Coleman broke through at Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Pawtucket in ‘97, batting a combined .305/.372/.524, before making a brief cameo with the big club. Coleman was unable to build on his success and struggled at Pawtucket the following season before rebounding in ‘99 (.268/.340/.531) and earning another cup of coffee. After missing most of the 2000 season, Coleman was traded along with Donnie Sadler to the Cincinnati Reds for Chris Stynes. Four months later, Cincy flipped him and Drew Henson to the New York Yankees for Wily Mo Pena. Coleman appeared in 12 games for the Yankees in 2001. On April 10 of that year he hit his only big-league homer, a solo blast with one out in the top of the ninth against Royals closer Roberto Hernandez that tied the game. If you’re only going to hit one home run, it might as well be dramatic. Coleman hasn’t returned to the Show since 2001 and last was seen playing for the Devil Rays’ Double-A affiliate in 2006. In 70 big-league plate appearances, Coleman hit .194/.203/.254. Over parts of 12 seasons in the minors, he hit .260/.331/.444, with 129 homers and 131 stolen bases. Like many prospects, he had an abundance of tools, but a paucity of usable baseball skills. Some guys (Preston Wilson) are able to overcome this, others (Derrick Gibson) not so much.
Vernon Wells, OF, Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto tabbed Wells with the fifth pick overall in 1997, between Jason Grilli (#54 on this list) and Geoff Goetz (#96). The Jays actually had a great draft that year — Wells, Michael Young, Orlando Hudson, and one guy they didn’t sign, Brad Hawpe. Anyway, Wells rocketed through the system and made his big-league debut in 1999, at age 20. After additional refinement at Triple-A over the next two years, Wells arrived for good in 2002. In nearly 4200 plate appearances, Wells has posted a tidy .281/.331/.478 batting line and won three Gold Gloves in center field. His best season came in 2003, when he hit .317/.359/.550 and received a smattering of MVP votes.
Ben Petrick, C, Colorado Rockies.. The Rockies picked Petrick out of an Oregon high school in the second round of the 1995 draft. Two years later, he established himself as a top prospect with a .248/.346/.427 performance as a 20-year-old in the High-A Carolina League. Unfortunately, Petrick’s minor-league success never translated into much of a big-league career, as he hit just .257/.337/.448 over parts of five seasons. Unlike some promising young players who fizzle, Petrick had a damn good reason: he’d been fighting Parkinson’s disease. The ailment forced him out of baseball in 2004, at age 27.
Jason Grilli, RHP, San Francisco Giants. Son of former big-league pitcher Steve Grilli, Jason Grilli came out of Seton Hall, which brought with it the inevitable comparisons to Matt Morris. Originally drafted by the Giants, Grilli never posted eye-popping numbers in the minors and was sent to Florida as part of the July 1999 deal that brought Livan Hernandez to the Bay Area. Grilli had several false starts, and spent all of 2002 and 2003 in the minors, before re-surfacing as a serviceable reliever for the Detroit Tigers. He owns a 5.19 ERA (87 ERA+) over 236 innings. Those aren’t great numbers, but he has a big-league career, which is more than anyone had a right to expect just a few short years ago.
Luis Rivas, SS, Minnesota Twins. Rivas’ claim to top prospect status relied heavily on his extreme youth. At age 18, he hit .281/.302/.374 in the Florida State League. People were willing to overlook his atrocious strike-zone judgment (14 BB, 75 K in 478 PA) because most guys his age don’t play full-season ball, let alone hold their own in a pitching-friendly High-A league. Unfortunately his offensive game never developed. Further complicating matters, his defensive shortcomings forced a move to second base. Although Rivas was playing every day for the Twins at age 21, his limitations soon chased him to the bench. He’s still only 28 years old, but his best years appear to be well behind him. Over parts of seven seasons, Rivas has batted .262/.307/.385 in 2067 plate appearances.
Magglio Ordonez, OF, Chicago White Sox. Ordonez has had a remarkable career. His minor-league numbers (.269/.325/.419 in 2575 PA) are nothing special, and he never was young for his league. He didn’t get a shot in the big leagues until he was 24, and even then, he didn’t do much (.282/.326/.415) as a rookie in ‘98. Then he just kept improving every year, culminating in his monster ‘02 season (.320/.381/.597). After a brief drop the next year, Ordonez ran into injury problems and appeared to be on the downside. Then in 2007, and without warning, he hit .363/.434/.595 for the Detroit Tigers, finishing second in the AL MVP voting. Over parts of 11 seasons, Ordonez is hitting .312/.370/.522 (129 OPS+). His most comparable contemporary player is Larry Walker, which is mighty impressive for a guy who couldn’t crack a 700 OPS in High-A ball.
Julio Ramirez, OF, Florida Marlins. See Michael Coleman. Like Coleman, Ramirez oozed athletic ability but lacked the refined skills necessary to convert them into anything useful. Ramirez hit .167/.216/.229 in 103 big-league plate appearances from 1999 to 2005. Over parts of 12 seasons in the minors, he hit .261/.305/.407, with 101 homers and 327 stolen bases. Ramirez last played for the Norfolk Tides in 2006, batting .188/.232/.260 in 50 games before being released.
Ryan Brannan, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies. Brannan never reached the big leagues, and his minor-league career was brief and mostly undistinguished. His entire professional career lasted 233 innings, during which he posted a 4.06 ERA and a pedestrian 6.10 K/9, mostly at High-A and Double-A. I’m trying to remember why this guy was considered a prospect. In his 1998 Minor League Scouting Notebook, John Sickels gave Brannan a B-minus, calling him “Ricky Bottalico, Part Two.” Bottalico had an ERA near 3.00 and a K/9 around 8.50 in the minors. Maybe the comparison was based on pitching style or something else. Whatever the case, Brannan never showed the type of results that Bottalico achieved.
Mike Judd, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers. Man, I loved Beavis and Butt-head. Wait, that’s Mike Judge. Hey, both of ‘em have San Diego ties, so cut me some slack. Judd was a ninth-round pick of the New York Yankees in 1995. Used exclusively as a reliever in the Yankees system, Judd blossomed as a starter after being traded to the Dodgers in June 1996. The following year, he went 10-7 with a 3.14 ERA and 9.16 K/9 in 26 starts at High-A and Double-A. Judd appeared in games for the big club every year from 1997 to 2000 before being dealt to Tampa Bay the next spring. In 2001, Judd worked a career-high 29 innings for the Devil Rays and Rangers. That’s the last time he pitched in the big leagues. His career line: 4-3, 7.20 ERA (60 ERA+) in 75 innings.
Ed Yarnall, LHP, Florida Marlins. Yarnall played on the LSU team that won the College World Series in ‘96 (Warren Morris home run, anyone?). Taken in the third round of that summer’s draft (the Mets, incidentally, had a miserable draft in 1996), Yarnall didn’t pitch professionally until the following season. In 1997, he came out of the gates quickly and even made a start for Triple-A Norfolk. The next year, after jupming out to a 7-0, 0.38 (!) start at Double-A Binghamton, Yarnall was shipped to Florida (with Goetz) in the Mike Piazza deal. The Marlins then flipped Yarnall (along with right-hander Todd Noel) to the Yankees for Mike Lowell (#71 on BA’s list). Yarnall worked a total of 20 innings for the Yankees in 1999 and 2000 before being included (with Henson) in the package that brought Denny Neagle to the Bronx from Cincinnati. Yarnall spent 2001 and 2002 pitching in Japan, then returned to North America, where he kicked around in affiliated ball through 2006. Last season, at age 31, he went 5-5 with a 3.93 ERA working as a swingman for Long Island of the independent Atlantic League.

As always, I hope you’ve enjoyed this little trip down memory lane as much as I have. Next time we’ll look at a hard-throwing closer, a tall first baseman, and a third baseman who outgrew his position. Until then…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Talkin’ Padres Prospects

Geoff Young — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 20:30:53 +0000

For the Padres fans in the house, I’ve posted a Q&A with the folks at MadFriars.com over at Ducksnorts (Part 1, Part 2). Actually, even if you’re not a Padres fan, there’s some good stuff here in terms of strategies for evaluating prospects and what-not.

Por ejemplo:

There are a lot of factors that go into comparing, analyzing and ranking players. It is a combination of projection and stats — but one thing John and I have learned through the years is nothing beats watching a player live. By going to the field four hours prior to the game, we can see work habits, how they hustle when the lights are dim, and what they take into a game. It may seem minute, but pre-game workouts can define a player’s potential and ability to reach that potential.

Enjoy…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Prospecting the Names

Geoff Young — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 19:57:08 +0000

What’s in a name? According to the Baseball Crank, a lot:

Having a great baseball name is important. For example, lots of people remember Drungo La Rue Hazewood (who was 0-for-5 in the major leagues) and Van Lingle Mungo, but almost nobody has heard of Bobby Wallace even though he played 25 seasons in the majors and is in the Hall of Fame. Maybe he shoulda gone by his given name of “Rhoderick.”

I always want to pronounce that name “Wodewick,” by the way. Monty Python has corrupted me.

You should have seen me trying to watch Camelot with a straight face in a college class after having seen Holy Grail dozens of times. Worse yet, a nun taught the class. She also was the RD for my on-campus apartment that year and a heckuva nice woman. Whew, talk about a stressful movie. Anywho…

The Baseball Crank has listed 15 of the best names among current prospects, and 10 of the worst. I’m not sure that I agree with “Jake Wild” as a good name for a pitching prospect, but that’s just me. I remain hopeful that one day we’ll find a prospect named Spiny Norman.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Where Are They Now: Top Prospects of ‘98, #61-70

Geoff Young — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 07:55:04 +0000

Previously…

Where were we? Ah yes, Terry Kennedy was being named Minor League Manager of the Year; Jay Gibbons was busy winning the Pioneer League MVP; and 41-year-old Dave Stieb, after a 5-year layoff, was making a comeback and earning “best control” honors in Baseball America’s “best tools” survey.

It must be 1998, the year that neither of the two first baseman playing for the Savannah Sand Gnats ranked among baseball’s top 100 prospects. Perhaps you have heard of Travis Hafner and Carlos Pena?

Meanwhile, back at the list…

Enrique Wilson, 2B, Cleveland Indians. Originally signed by the Minnesota Twins in 1992, Wilson came to the Indians toward the end of spring training in 1994. As a minor leaguer, his primary offensive attributes were an ability to make contact (he struck out every 12.8 plate appearances) and middling power (.135 ISO). Wilson hit .262/.310/.352 over 368 plate appearances in 1999, his first full big-league season. He hung around a few years as a utility player and got into some World Series games with the New York Yankees in ‘01 and ‘03. Over parts of nine seasons, Wilson hit .244/.288/.350 (64 OPS+). His list of most comparable players is uninspiring; the best match currently active in MLB is St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina.
Damian Jackson, SS, Cincinnati Reds. Jackson’s chief asset coming up through the minors was his youth. He had an everyday job in Double-A at age 20 and performed reasonably well (.269/.343/.371). Jackson was fast but his swing was way too long for a guy without much power. He didn’t see any big-league action in 2007, but over parts of 11 seasons, he owns a .243/.323/.356 (81 OPS+) line in a shade over 2500 plate appearances. The active player most similar to Jackson is Minnesota Twins shortstop Adam Everett. I have four enduring memories of Jackson from his time in a San Diego Padres uniform:
- In May 2001, Jackson got plunked by A.J. Burnett. He missed several weeks thereafter due to a broken wrist (Burnett, meanwhile, tossed a no-hitter, adding insult to injury).
- In June 2005, he inexplicably knocked two home runs in a game at Petco Park against the Seattle Mariners
- He once hit a broken-bat grand slam in Houston.
- I can’t find documentation for this one, but he almost made the most spectacular catch I’ve ever seen climbing over the center-field fence at Petco Park.
Corey Lee, LHP, Texas Rangers. Lee made one big-league appearance, in the 11th inning of a game against the New York Yankees on August 24, 1999. He faced six batters, including Tino Martinez, who hit a game-winning three-run homer off of him. Since 1901, 21 big leaguers have allowed one homer in exactly one career inning of work. Many of those — Sean Burroughs, Mark Grace, Bobby Bonilla, Rick Leach, Leon Roberts, Tom Hutton, Alvin Dark, et al. — were position players forced by circumstances to take the mound.
Lance Berkman, OF, Houston Astros. Another disappointment who — oops, Berkman actually did something. In fact, he’s done quite a bit. The former first-round pick out of Rice has hit .300/.412/.559 in 5127 career plate appearances. Coming into the 2007 season, Berkman has 259 homers to his credit to go along with four All-Star appearances. He is, at the risk of getting overly technical, a beast. Berkman’s list of comps through age 31 would make a nice wing in the Hall of the Very Good: Larry Walker, David Ortiz, Mo Vaughn, Jason Giambi, etc. Heck, one of these guys (Willie McCovey) is in the Hall of Fame, and at least two others (Albert Belle, Fred McGriff) could make a reasonably strong case for themselves.
Abraham Nunez, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates. See Wilson and Jackson. Signed by the Toronto Blue Jays in 1994, Nunez never hit in the minors (.274/.339/.342 in 1769 PA). Not surprisingly, he’s never hit in the big leagues either (.242/.313/.314 in 2802 PA). Sort of on par with Tom Veryzer and Curtis Wilkerson as a hitter. That’s not good.
Joe Fontenot, RHP, Florida Marlins.. Fontenot made eight big-league starts, all in 1998 at age 21. He lost seven of them, receiving a no-decision in the other (which Florida also lost). Originally a first-round pick of the San Francisco Giants, Fontenot came to the Marlins in a November 1997 trade that sent Robb Nen to the Bay Area. Fontenot returned to Triple-A in 1999 and made eight starts at Calgary before disappearing. Alas, Fontenot never got a chance to become the new Terry Felton.
Shawn Chacon, RHP, Colorado Rockies. A third-round pick in 1996, Chacon had a decent season for Asheville (11-7, 3.89 ERA, 8.28 K/9) in the South Atlantic League the following year at age 19. Then he kind of stalled out at High-A before blossoming in 2000 at Carolina (10-10, 3.16, 8.90). Chacon enjoyed marginal success with the big club as a rookie in 2001 and made the National League All-Star team in 2003. The next season, he had one of the most remarkable seasons ever, saving 35 games despite a 7.11 ERA (69 ERA+). Chacon and Todd Worell (35 SV, 73 ERA+) are the only men in big-league history to have recorded 30 or more saves in a season while recording an ERA+ of 80 or lower, demonstrating yet again the silliness of the save statistic. Chacon continues to bounce from team to team. Over parts of seven seasons, he owns a 43-58 record and a 4.98 ERA (96 ERA+), with 36 saves. His list of comparable players through age 29 includes some pitchers who became solid relievers after failing as starters — LaTroy Hawkins, Jose Mesa, and Jim Gott, to name a few.
Robbie Bell, RHP, Atlanta Braves. Like Chacon, Bell also was selected in the third round — of the ‘95 draft. Bell put up some nice numbers at Danville (7-9, 3.29 ERA, 9.96 K/9) of the Carolina League in 1998. The Braves traded him to Cincinnati after the season, along with Denny Neagle and Michael Tucker, in a deal that brought Bret Boone and Mike Remlinger to Atlanta. In 2000, Bell surfaced with the big club and made 26 starts, showing an alarming case of gopheritis acutis (2.05 HR/9) in the process. When he proved that his malady was no fluke, the Reds shipped him to Texas for Ruben Mateo and Edwin Encarnacion. From there, Bell has made stops in Tampa Bay and Baltimore, but never found a home. Over parts of seven seasons he is 34-37 with a 5.71 ERA (81 ERA+). During his career, Bell has allowed a home run once every 21.7 at-bats, which is roughly as often as Moises Alou hits one.
Brent Butler, SS, St. Louis Cardinals. Would you believe, another third-round pick? The Cards nabbed Butler with the 68th pick overall in 1996 (not a good draft for St. Louis — only Butler and Braden Looper ever did anything, unless you count Stubby Clapp’s 26 plate appearances in 2001). Butler batted .306/.387/.485 as a 19-year-old in the Midwest League in ‘97, and then it all kind of went downhill from there. Traded to Colorado after the 1999 season, Butler saw action in parts of three seasons with the Rockies. He hit .248/.285/.380 in 597 plate appearances from 2001 to 2003. Since then Butler has been hanging out at Double- and Triple-A in the Braves and Rays systems. He doesn’t really hit anymore, he doesn’t really play shortstop anymore, and he’s 30 years old. Butler needs five more RBI to reach 500 for his career… in the minors.
Preston Wilson, OF, Florida Marlins. Stepson of Mookie, chaser of breaking balls. The New York Mets took Wilson in the first round of the 1992 draft and traded him to Florida in May 1998 as part of the Mike Piazza deal. Wilson’s career minor-league numbers (.258/.304/.470 in 2395 PA) are fairly pedestrian, but he’s had better success in the big leagues (.264/.329/.468 in 4436 PA). He had a real nice run from 1999 to 2003, batting .269/.337/.491 during that stretch. For a guy who has so much trouble making contact, Wilson has enjoyed a remarkably productive career. He even won a World Series with the Cardinals in 2006.

There it is. Thanks again for joining me in this little sojourn to the past. Next time we’ve got a couple of All-Star outfielders scheduled, along with a bunch of guys who never quite made it. Until then…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Pacific Coast League Prospects from 1988

Geoff Young — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 15:39:23 +0000

I don’t know why I’ve become so fascinated with prospects from years gone by, but I have. My latest article at Hardball Times looks back at the Pacific Coast League circa 1988: names like Craig Biggio, Terry Francona, Edgar Martinez. Good times…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Where Are They Now: Top Prospects of ‘98, #71-80

Geoff Young — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 07:29:33 +0000

Previously…

Welcome back to 1998. Dante Bichette led MLB with 219 hits, Jose Offerman led with 13 triples, and Mike Piazza signed a record-setting 7-year/$91 million deal with the Mets. Our latest re-examination of Baseball America’s top 100 prospects from that year shows yet again how few of the best minor leaguers convert their potential into great big-league careers.

There’s a reason for that, of course: baseball is a lot harder than it looks. So is predicting which guys will make it and which ones won’t. To the list:

Mike Lowell, 3B, New York Yankees. Selected in the 20th round of the 1995 draft, Lowell was a late bloomer. His breakout season as a prospect came in 1997, when he hit .315/.401/.562 between Double-A Norwich and Triple-A Columbus. Lowell spent the following year back at Columbus, earning a late cup of coffee with the big club. In February 1999 the Yankees shipped him to Florida for three prospects who never made it. Lowell’s first season with the Marlins was underwhelming, as he hit just .253/.317/.419 — not the sort of performance one might hope for out of a 25-year-old. Lowell improved the following year and settled in as a solid run producer for a few years before taking another step forward at age 29. Florida traded Lowell to the Boston Red Sox after the 2005 season in the deal that brought Hanley Ramirez to the Marlins. Lowell isn’t a superstar, although the fact that he now plays in a large and visible market sometimes causes people to think he is. Over parts of 10 seasons, Lowell has hit .280/.344/.468 (110 OPS+). His most similar players through age 33 are Paul O’Neill, Ron Cey, Doug DeCinces, Ken Caminiti, and Todd Zeile.
Rafael Medina, RHP, New York Yankees. Medina threw hard but didn’t do much else. The Yankees traded him to the San Diego Padres on April 22, 1997, as part of the package that landed them Hideki “Fat Toad” Irabu. I actually got to see Medina’s debut in the Padres organization. Nearly eight months later, the Padres shipped Medina and Derrek Lee (who will appear in a future edition of our series) to Florida for right-hander Kevin Brown. Over parts of two seasons, Medina went 3-7 with a 5.96 ERA in 90 2/3 innings. Command was the big problem, as he walked 7.15 per 9 innings during his career. Medina spent 2000 in the Toronto system and 2001 in the St. Louis system. He hasn’t pitched for a big-league organization since, but did make a few appearances for Victoria of the independent Canadian League in 2003 at age 28.
Jarrod Washburn, LHP, Anaheim Angels. The Angels took Washburn with the first pick in the second round of the 1995 draft out of the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh. This school also produced former big-league second baseman Jim Gantner and current big-league left-hander Jack Taschner. Washburn made his big-league debut on June 2, 1998, working 6 1/3 strong innings and leading the Angels past Kansas City, 7-5. He finished his rookie season with a 6-3 record and 4.62 ERA in 74 innings. After bouncing between the minors and majors in 1999 and 2000, Washburn established himself permanently the following year and has made 25 or more starts in each of the past seven seasons. In 2006 he signed with the Seattle Mariners. Although he hasn’t enjoyed the same level of success there that he did in Southern California, Washburn continues to soak innings. Over parts of 10 seasons, he owns a 93-86 record and 4.07 ERA (110 ERA+).
Ramon Hernandez, C, Oakland A’s. Hernandez wasn’t even his organization’s best catching prospect in 1998. That honor belonged to A.J. Hinch, whom we’ll discuss in a future installment. As for Hernandez, he first garnered attention following a monster ‘97 season at High-A Visalia in which he hit .361/.422/.572 before faltering in a late-season promotion to Double-A. Hernandez came up to the big club toward the end of June 1999 and hit .279/.363/.397 during his rookie campaign. After three pedestrian seasons with the A’s, he exploded in 2003 at age 27 with a .273/.331/.458 performance. That November, the A’s traded Hernandez to San Diego along with outfielder Terrence Long for outfielder Mark Kotsay. Hernandez enjoyed two solid seasons with the Padres before signing a 4-year, $27.5 million deal with Baltimore. Hernandez set career highs in many offensive categories in 2006 before regressing badly — as will happen with catchers in their thirties — in 2007. Over parts of nine seasons, Hernandez has hit .263/.328/.423 (97 OPS+) in 3932 at-bats. Among his most comparable players through age 31 are several other catchers who aged badly, including Jody Davis, Terry Kennedy, Charles Johnson, and Mike Lieberthal.
Ramon Ortiz, RHP, Anaheim Angels. Three years is the difference between good and great. According to the Baseball America 2002 Almanac, Ortiz was born March 23, 1976. By the 2003 Almanac, the date had been amended to March 23, 1973. (Do you suppose he got to celebrate all those birthdays at once?) Ortiz had one very nice season in 2002, when he went 15-9 with a 3.77 ERA. At the time, he appeared to be poised for a breakout. Then he got old more quickly than anyone could have guessed and it never happened. Ortiz has been a reasonably dependable starter over parts of nine seasons, compiling an 84-80 record and a 4.90 ERA (91 ERA+) in a little under 1400 innings. My personal favorite game of his came on June 14, 2002, against the Dodgers, when he went the distance and allowed just four hits — all solo home runs.
Wade Miller, RHP, Houston Astros.. It’s a little scary to think just how good the Astros might have been if Miller had remained healthy. He and Roy Oswalt at the top of that rotation for all those years… But alas, reality had other plans. After spending parts of 1999 and 2000 in Houston, Miller stuck with the big club in ‘01 and fashioned a slick 16-8, 3.40 season. He followed that with a 15-4, 3.28 showing. Miller’s performance slipped in 2003, but at age 26, it appeared to be a blip on the radar. Then came the injuries. Miller worked 187 1/3 innings in ‘03; he’s worked a total of 215 innings since. Over parts of nine seasons, Miller (now 31 years old) owns a 62-46 record with a 4.10 ERA (110 ERA+). His list of top comps through age 30 includes several pitchers whose careers have suffered because of injuries, notably Cal Eldred, Juan Guzman, and Kris Benson.
Karim Garcia, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s easy to forget that Garcia was an absolute monster prospect. In his 1996 Minor League Scouting Notebook, John Sickels ranked Garcia #8 among all prospects in baseball. That’s right behind Jason Schmidt and ahead of Scott Rolen if you’re keeping score at home. By ‘98, Garcia’s stock had fallen to the point that the Los Angeles Dodgers left him unprotected for the expansion draft. Arizona snatched him up and he proceeded to hit .222/.260/.381 for the Snakes in his first full big-league season at age 22. That December, he was involved in one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory. The Diamondbacks shipped Garcia to Detroit straight up for Luis Gonzalez, who became the face of the franchise and led the club to its first World Championship in 2001. Garcia, meanwhile, fizzled for the Tigers and soon found himself bouncing around the league. He last played for the Baltimore Orioles in 2004 at age 28. Over parts of 10 seasons, Garcia owns a .241/.279/.424 line (82 OPS+) in 1560 plate appearances. He spent 2006 in Japan, hitting .249/.302/.412 for the Orix Blue Wave, and spent this past winter trying to make his way back to the big leagues. Sounds crazy, but it just might work: the Phillies signed him in January.
Sidney Ponson, RHP, Baltimore Orioles. Ponson had a great ‘96 season in the Carolina League at age 19, and everyone went nuts over him. The following year didn’t go so well, but he still had youth on his side. Despite having worked just 82 innings (not terribly effective ones at that — 5.06 ERA, 1.79 K/BB) above A-ball, Ponson spent most of 1998 with the big club. Not surprisingly, he struggled, going 8-9 with a 5.27 ERA in 135 innings. Ponson was roughly league average each of the next two seasons before injuries limited him to 23 starts in 2001. Ponson bounced back the following year and then enjoyed his best season in 2003, when he went 17-12 with a 3.75 ERA for Baltimore and the San Francisco Giants. He has been unable to duplicate that success and has spent the past several years bouncing around from team to team. Over parts of 10 seasons, Ponson owns an 82-101 record and a 4.94 ERA (91 ERA+). Knighted in his native Aruba, Ponson also has had his share of legal troubles in the past.
Robinson Checo, RHP, Boston Red Sox. Checo was a Dominican-born right-hander who spent some time pitching for the Hiroshima Carp in the Japan Central League before coming to the U.S. Checo made just 21 starts in the minors before making his big-league debut on September 16, 1997, in Yankee Stadium. The game didn’t go so well for him or the Red Sox. Checo spent most of ‘98 in the minors, making just two forgettable starts for the big club. Boston let Checo go after the season and in February 1999, the Detroit Tigers signed him. Two months later, they shipped him off to Los Angeles in a deal for Dave Mlicki and Mel Rojas. Checo’s stint with the Dodgers didn’t go so well either, and after spending 2000 with their Triple-A affiliate in Albuquerque, he called it a career. His final big-league line: 36.2 IP, 7.61 ERA (59 ERA+). For more on Checo, see his entry at the BR Bullpen.
Lorenzo Barcelo, RHP, Chicago White Sox. Barcelo provides yet further evidence that a lot can go wrong for a young pitcher. Barcelo established himself as a top prospect in 1996, when he went 12-10 with a 3.53 ERA for Burlington of the Midwest League. The numbers aren’t eye-popping, but he also had a 3-to-1 K/BB rate. Oh, and he was 18 years old. The following year, Barcelo was a key part of the “White Flag Trade.” His numbers took a slight hit in ‘97, but then injuries limited him to just 74 innings over the next two seasons. Barcelo made it up to the big club in 2000 and pitched well (4-2, 3.69 ERA over 39 innings) out of the bullpen. Unfortunately, his arm woes returned and Barcelo worked only 63 innings over the next three seasons before retiring at age 25 with a career line of 5-3, 4.50 ERA (108 ERA+) over 66 innings.

Wasn’t that fun? Our next installment includes a few marginal big-league talents and one stud switch-hitting outfielder. Until then…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Downtime, Family Trees, Hardball Times Book

Geoff Young — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 15:16:26 +0000

First off, I apologize for the recent downtime we had around here. There aren’t many things worse in life than suffering through a New York/New England Super Bowl, but a withdrawal of baseball blogginess might be one of them.

Anyway, thanks to our crack staff, we should be good to go, which means… more stuff!

Okay, that was lame. It’s Friday and I’m on my first cup coffee. So, what’s going on? Glad you asked:

In case you missed it, I’ve kicked off a look back at the top prospects of 1998; the first installment covers #91-100 (and yes, Eric, that teaser at the end is a nod to Mr. Ortiz). These will be running every Thursday for the next — eh, you do the math.
My latest article at Baseball Digest Daily examines “baseball family trees.” It’s sort of an attempt to connect players from different eras. For example, we can look at Sean Casey and see that he was kind of like Hal Morris, who was kind of like Chris Chambliss, who was kind of like Wes Parker, and so on back to Fred Merkle. The method is a bit crude (hey, I’ve been called worse!), but I think it’s fun.
Finally, I’m pleased to announce that the Hardball Times Season Preview 2008 is almost upon us. I contributed the chapter on the San Diego Padres, so there may be some bias here, but I think we’ve got a pretty rockin’ book this year. If you don’t believe me (then why are you reading my stuff, but that’s a different story), here’s my esteemed colleague David Gassko to tell you more:
- It’s the Hardball Times Season Preview 2008!
- The Hardball Times Season Preview 2008: A sample chapter (Red Sox content warning)
- Ten things I learned from The Hardball Times Season Preview 2008
You can buy the book at all the usual outlets, but if you order directly from the publisher, THT gets a higher cut. More money, of course, means more books. Not that I’m telling you what to do or anything, but… oh wait, yes I am.

This was a weird post. What’s in my coffee, anyway?

Post from: Knuckle Curve