Weaver, Pythagoras, and Snakes
October 2, 2007 by Geoff Young
Filed under Stats and Analysis
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been getting grief for outperforming their Pythagorean record by 11 games in 2007. Although it’s nice to see that Bill James’ creation has worked its way into the mainstream, it’s amusing (or not) to see the formula itself so poorly understood.
Instead of talking about “should win” and “luck,” we ought to be digging deeper. Perhaps there are reasons for Arizona’s success that aren’t immediately obvious? Wouldn’t be the first time.
In his 1982 Baseball Abstract, James identifies a team that regularly finished with better records than their run differential suggested they should. From 1977 through 1981, the …read more
