This time we’re looking at projected career hits. Specifically we’re looking at the players who were judged at that time most likely to reach 3000 hits. Let’s compare projected with actual, shall we?

Points worth noting:

• Those projections for Ripken, Gwynn, and Boggs are almost perfect; the Alomar and Grissom projections aren’t bad either.
• Estimates for Palmeiro turned out to be very low, while those for Knoblauch are very high. Through age 30, Knoblauch posted numbers comparable to those of Lou Whitaker. After that, Knoblauch turned into Kevin Stocker. Ouch.
• A-Rod provides yet another reminder of why it’s dangerous to work with such small samples. He’d had precisely one full big-league season under his belt when these projections were published. Granted, it was a great season, but the fact remains that he’s blown past his career projection and he’s still in his prime. A-Rod is looking like a real good bet to finish at the top of the above list.

Just a little something to contemplate…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

J.D. Arney at Red Reporter has written a great post about exciting players he’s seen over the years. As you might expect, his list contains a fair amount of Reds. Actually, it contains only Reds, because — well, he’s the Red Reporter. Get it?

Anyway, I thought it might be fun to take this concept and extend it. Here are the most exciting players I’ve ever seen:

C: I’m not sure that I’ve encountered any “exciting” catchers. (I’m guessing Ivan Rodriguez, but I’ve only seen him play once or twice.) Maybe early Benito Santiago. I enjoyed watching Mike Piazza play for the Padres in 2006, even though he was well past his prime by then. My all-time favorite at the position is probably Mike Scioscia, who I grew up watching.

1B: Rod Carew was near the end of his career when I saw him play for the Angels, as was Eddie Murray when he played for the Dodgers. I’m going to call this a toss-up between Fred McGriff (’91-’92) and Adrian Gonzalez. I also really loved the way Andres Galarraga handled himself at the position, although I didn’t get to see him nearly as often. Great footwork for such a big dude.

2B: Technically, Steve Sax was pretty exciting, but I don’t think that’s quite what we’re going for here. I have only vague recollections of Bobby Grich toward the end of his career and Roberto Alomar at the beginning of his. I grew up in an era of very unexciting second basemen — Glenn Hubbard, Ron Oester, Tommy Herr, Johnny Ray, etc. I’ll go with Craig Biggio, with an honorable mention to Ryne Sandberg. If I’d watched more of the American League, I’m sure that Frank White and Lou Whitaker would be here as well.

3B: Ken Caminiti. Yeah, it may have been tainted by PEDs, but he carried the ‘96 Padres on his back. I’ll always have fond memories of that. Honorable mention goes to Mike Schmidt, who obviously was the much better player but whom I didn’t see nearly as often.

SS: I almost feel obligated to say Ozzie Smith, but I didn’t see him play a lot. The guy I grew up watching, Bill Russell, may have been the least exciting I’ve ever seen at the position. Alfredo Griffin was exciting, but not always in a good way. Tony Fernandez? Eh, not quite. Dick Schofield? No. Cal Ripken? Robin Yount? Alan Trammell? Didn’t see them enough. Same with Barry Larkin. You know who I’m going to say? This is almost by default and he was a terrible hitter, but I think it might be Shawon Dunston. Wait, how about Omar Vizquel. Way to commit, huh?

OF: Rickey Henderson. Dude was playing a completely different game.

OF: Tim Raines. Not just because of all the Hall of Fame attention. He wasn’t quite as disruptive as Henderson, but pretty much everyone in the history of baseball falls short by that standard. Raines was plenty troublesome.

OF: Tony Gwynn. Easily the best hitter I’ve ever seen.

OF: Eric Davis. I’m stealing one from J.D.’s list here because, man, Davis was unreal in the outfield. Probably the best defensive outfielder I’ve seen.

OF: Kenny Lofton. Yeah, Lofton. I’m thinking specifically of his playoff performances with the Indians in the mid-’90s. Electric player.

OF: Bo Jackson. Probably the best athlete I’ve ever seen play baseball. He had holes in his swing the size of Montana, but the guy could hit the ball a mile. He’s also the fastest man I’ve seen from the right side. I distinctly remember him knocking three infield singles in one of his first big-league games. My recollection is that at least two of those were routine grounders that would have been outs with anyone else at the plate.

Well, that was fun. How about you? Who makes your list?

Post from: Knuckle Curve