Post from: Knuckle Curve

In terms of my work with the Red Sox it was mostly enjoyable but occasionally frustrating. Being able to have the ear of an MLB GM is something most of the people who do what I do aspire to and it was indeed very {searching for a word} exhilarating? On the other hand the money was lousy, and at times I was left without any real idea of what kind of effect I was having on things. When you work on something for five months, deliver the final product and hear little back about it, it can be disheartening.

One of the things that kind of bugged me with the Red Sox was a somewhat implied expectation that I’d come up with something like DIPS on a regular basis. Whether that’s reasonable for someone else or not, I personally just don’t have that in me.

McCracken also talks about evaluating college hitters, a projection system he’s been working on, and plans for a new book. Good stuff; head on over and give the entire interview a read…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Honestly I’ve never understood why there’s been such a disconnect between the two factions. We’re all baseball fans, right?

Anyway, let me know what you think:

As always, feel free to leave a comment if checking a box just doesn’t get it out of your system.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

• Bill James Interview (Hardball Times). Chris Jaffe talks to the man who first popularized sabermetrics (and actually coined the term). James on what kinds of issues sabermetrics might tackle in the future:

  League-perspective decision making. Looking at decisions based from the standpoint of the league.

  Simple example: the wild card. The National League has 16 teams, and four teams make the playoffs. Sixteen is divisible by four. The natural thing to do, it would seem to me, would be to make four divisions and have four division races.

  It wasn’t done that way, and if you ask anybody why it wasn’t done that way, they’ll say “they must have thought that there would be more interest in the races if you kept a wild card there.” But is that true?

• Beer Run: How to Defeat a Sabermetrician in an Argument (Catfish Stew). Just when you thought there was nothing more to say about Jim Rice and the Hall of Fame, Ken Arneson comes along and looks at the debate from a remarkably fresh angle.
• Some traditions should get axe, others kept (SI.com). Jon Weisman examines the status quo and finds some aspects lacking. I disagree with Jon’s take on interleague play and post-season start times, but I’m with him on the rest.

Enjoy…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

A reader from Belgium emailed me the other day wanting to learn more about baseball. I gave him a few suggestions and then thought, what a great idea for a post. Why not make this information available in one place so that everyone can benefit?

This list is not comprehensive, but it represents some of the finest work I’ve seen covering various aspects of baseball. If you know of others, please feel free to add them in the comments and I’ll update as appropriate. Enjoy!

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Economics/Money

You’re all about the bottom line. What are players being paid these days, and how do their salaries fit into the bigger picture of baseball economics?

Cot’s Baseball Contracts

Need information on baseball contracts? For each team, the entire club’s payroll is given for the past several years. Current and past contract details are provided for the team’s general manager, manager, and players. Information includes length of contract, total dollar amount, year-by-year dollar amount, signing bonuses, options, clauses, and incentives.

Sabernomics

J.C. Bradbury is an economics professor, Atlanta Braves fan, and author of The Baseball Economist (aff link). This is his blog.

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History

History is the fabric that connects past to present. How did baseball come into existence, and who have been its greatest players over the years?

19th Century Baseball

This site examines the early history of baseball, including its origins in cricket, rounders, and other similar sports; the myth of Abner Doubleday as baseball’s inventor; leagues and players of the era; how the game was played in the 19th century; and more.

Baseball Think Factory’s Hall of Merit

Several respected analysts have created “an alternative to the Baseball Hall of Fame” that seeks “to identify the best players in baseball history and thereby identify the omissions and errors that can be found in the other venerable institution.” Although it lacks the Hall of Fame’s clout and nostalgic pull, this is a must-visit for anyone interested in learning more about the best baseball players throughout history.

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Projections

Maybe you play fantasy baseball, or maybe you’re just intellectually curious. How will your favorite player(s) perform this year?

CAIRO

SG at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog is introducing these for the 2008 season.

CHONE

Chone Smith runs these. The 2008 versions are now available for hitters and pitchers.

Marcels

Tom Tango makes these available but does not stand behind them (although they do quite well for such a simple system).

ZiPS

Dan Szymborski releases his projection system team by team, so you may need to dig around a little to find what you need.

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Rules, Etc.

This is all well and good, but how do you actually play the game?

Official Rules

The official rules of baseball can be found at Major League Baseball’s web site. Each chapter comes as a separate PDF file, but for the excellent price of free, who’s complaining?

Know your waiver rules

ESPN’s Jayson Stark explains how waivers work.

At last, a quick explanation of the Rule 5 draft

Baseball America’s Alan Schwarz examines the Rule 5 draft.

Transactions Primer

ESPN’s Rob Neyer covers all kinds of odds and ends, including the disabled list, minor-league options, players to be named later, and more.

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Sabermetrics

Perhaps you aren’t satisfied with the same old stats that everyone spouts without thinking about whether they make sense or add to our understanding. The field of sabermetrics — defined as “the search for objective knowledge about baseball” — might be for you.

Sabermetric Manifesto

David Grabiner discusses in great detail the reasoning behind the “sabermetric” movement — what it is, why it is necessary, and so forth.

Stats 101: The very basics of statistical analyses

This article at Statistically Speaking delves into the philosophy behind and fundamentals of statistical analysis. It’s a great starting point, and once you’re done, be sure to check out the rest of the web site; I find it to be very useful.

A PITCHf/x primer

Mike Fast discusses one of the hottest new items in Sabermetrics, PITCHf/x data, which allows for unbelievably detailed pitch-by-pitch analysis. This one also is at Statistically Speaking. (I told you it was a useful site.)

Goodby to Some Old Baseball Ideas

Before Bill James came along, there was Branch Rickey. A catcher of little distinction who played for the St. Louis Browns and New York Highlanders in the early part of the 20th century, Rickey later became general manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, Brooklyn Dodgers, and Pittsburgh Pirates. Among many other things, Rickey was a pioneer in using advanced statistical concepts to gain greater understanding of how baseball actually works.

Tango on Baseball

This is the research site of Tom Tango, a co-author of The Book, which also has its own blog.

Bill James Baseball Abstracts

Rich Lederer provides an overview of all 12 of the Bill James Baseball Abstracts published in the ’70s and ’80s: 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988. If you haven’t read James’ work and are curious to learn more, this is a great place to start. Rich and company do a fantastic job at Baseball Analysts (full disclosure: they’ve had me on as a guest a few times, although I enjoyed their work well before then).

High Boskage House Baseball Analysis

Site run by Eric Walker, who is mentioned in Michael Lewis’ Moneyball (aff link). If you haven’t read Moneyball, I highly recommend it and Alan Schwarz’ The Numbers Game (aff link) for some useful background information. If you’re already well versed in the work of James, Pete Palmer, etc., then much of this will be review material, but both books help provide context and are enjoyable reads. Anyway, the High Boskage site can be tricky to navigate, but two good places to start are the Overview and Probability and Baseball pages.

Beyond the Boxscore

Excellent general sabermetrics blog.

Hardball Times

I write for this site, but I was a fan long before I joined them. I learn something new almost every day from my colleagues here.

Baseboogle

Looking for research on a particular subject? Want to make sure you’re not duplicating someone else’s work before starting your project? It might help to give Baseboogle a spin.

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Scorekeeping

You’re at the game, enjoying the action, but you want to keep track of what’s going on so you can refer back to it later or maybe share it with friends. You will need a scorecard and some idea of how to use it.

Baseball Basics: How to Keep Score

This is a very rudimentary explanation of how to keep score at a baseball game. The subject is complex enough that entire books have been written about it.

Keeping Score

Patrick A. McGovern offers a tutorial on how to score a baseball game, as well as free downloadable scorecards for printing and using at a ballpark near you.

Guide to Scoring Baseball

Christopher Swingley also provides a tutorial and free downloadable scorecards.

Scorekeeping

Alex Reisner makes available several different types of baseball scorecards and scorebooks.

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Statistics/Reference

No abstract philosophy or complicated theories, just the facts.

Baseball-Reference

Saying that Sean Forman’s site contains a wealth of information doesn’t do it justice. B-R is a free repository of statistics dating back to 1871 that includes biographical information, lists of statistically similar players throughout history, play-by-play data from 1957, and more. Paid services offer even greater functionality, including sophisticated searches. I use this on a daily basis more than any other web site.

Update: reader suggestions added…

Official site of Major League Baseball

Stats, scores, and more. [Hat tip to Nick G.]

ESPN

News and commentary. Much of the content is available to subscribers only. [Hat tip to Nick G.]

Baseball America

All things prospects/scouting. Much of the content is available to subscribers only. [Hat tip to Nick G.]

Baseball Prospectus

News and commentary. Much of the content is available to subscribers only. [Hat tip to Rain Delay]

Sabermetric Wiki

Wiki developed by Tom Tango. [Hat tip to Rain Delay]

Whew, that was a long list. Anyway, these are some resources I find useful in my continued pursuit of baseball knowledge and enjoyment. May they serve you well…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

What if we think about what OPS looks like if you write it with a common denominator? Now we have:
OPS = ((H+W)*AB + TB*(AB+W))/(AB*(AB+W))

That is a hideous equation that measures, um… what? Anyway, I agree with the overall sentiment:

OPS is a fine, quick way to measure a hitter. That does not mean that its units are meaningful, that does not mean that it is has meaningful units when it is divided by the league average, or that it is a statistic that has any inherent logic behind it other then adding together two things because it works, or that another metric that combines OBA and SLG in a different way is necessarily inferior or incorrect. As long as you keep those things in mind, there’s not really anything audacious about OPS.

Batting average is meaningful (because it measures something) but not useful (because what it measures doesn’t provide us with information about how well a player or team will perform). OPS is useful (because it correlates reasonably well to how well an offense performs at an individual or team level) but not meaningful (because it doesn’t actually measure anything).

I know which I prefer…

Post from: Knuckle Curve