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	<title>Knuckle Curve &#187; tony gwynn</title>
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		<title>Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual Now Available</title>
		<link>http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve/ducksnorts-2008-baseball-annual-now-available/</link>
		<comments>http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve/ducksnorts-2008-baseball-annual-now-available/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Feb 2008 14:50:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Geoff Young</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Books and Movies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[book]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cooperstown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ducksnorts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hall of Fame]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[kevin towers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[matt vasgersian]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor Leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[padres]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[player commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tony gwynn]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.knucklecurve.com/ducksnorts-2008-baseball-annual-now-available/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Is it the height of conceit to display a photograph of oneself reading one&#8217;s own book in an attempt to lure people into buying said book? Quite possibly it is. Regardless, I&#8217;m pleased to announce that the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual is now available. You can buy it as a hard copy or a PDF download, depending on your taste.
The book is subtitled &#8220;More than any sane person should ever need to know about the San Diego Padres,&#8221; and I think that pretty well covers it. You&#8217;ll find 200+ pages of analysis and commentary on the 2007 Padres season, the [...]<p>Post from: <a href="http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve">Knuckle Curve</a></p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://ducksnorts.com/book/"><img src="http://www.geoffreynyoung.com/gfx/ducksnorts-2008-annual4.jpg" alt="Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual" /></a></p>
<p>Is it the height of conceit to display a photograph of oneself reading one&#8217;s own book in an attempt to lure people into buying said book? Quite possibly it is. Regardless, I&#8217;m pleased to announce that the <a href="http://ducksnorts.com/book/"><em>Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual</em></a> is now available. You can buy it as a hard copy or a PDF download, depending on your taste.</p>
<p>The book is subtitled &#8220;More than any sane person should ever need to know about the San Diego Padres,&#8221; and I think that pretty well covers it. You&#8217;ll find 200+ pages of analysis and commentary on the 2007 Padres season, the farm system, Tony Gwynn&#8217;s induction into the Hall of Fame, GM Kevin Towers&#8217; trading record, and more &#8212; including a foreword by Matt Vasgersian, TV play-by-play announcer for the Padres.</p>
<p>Still not sure? Try the <a href="http://ducksnorts.com/free/">free PDF download of excerpts</a>. If you like it, then <a href="http://ducksnorts.com/book/">go for the whole shebang</a>.</p>
<p>Enjoy, and spread the word!</p>
<p>Post from: <a href="http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve">Knuckle Curve</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>More Fun with Career Projections</title>
		<link>http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve/more-fun-with-career-projections/</link>
		<comments>http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve/more-fun-with-career-projections/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Feb 2008 04:10:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Geoff Young</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Hall of Fame]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats and Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[alex rodriguez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cal ripken]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chuck-knoblauch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[frank thomas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[kevin stocker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lou-whitaker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[marquis grissom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mlb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rafael palmeiro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[roberto-alomar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tony gwynn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wade boggs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.knucklecurve.com/more-fun-with-career-projections/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[While I&#8217;m waiting for Puppy Bowl IV to arrive, I thought I&#8217;d flip through the STATS 1997 Baseball Scoreboard for inspiration. I&#8217;ve already used this source to re-examine Barry Bonds and now I see that there are a few more projections in here.
This time we&#8217;re looking at projected career hits. Specifically we&#8217;re looking at the players who were judged at that time most likely to reach 3000 hits. Let&#8217;s compare projected with actual, shall we?

Career Hits, Projected pre-&#8217;97 vs Actual post-&#8217;07


Player
Proj
Act
Diff




Cal Ripken Jr.
3166
3184
+18


Tony Gwynn
3139
3141
+2


Wade Boggs
3025
3010
-15


Roberto Alomar
2803
2724
-79


Rafael Palmeiro
2672
3020
+348


Chuck Knoblauch
2509
1839
-670


Frank Thomas
2355
2409
+54


Marquis Grissom
2328
2251
-77


Alex Rodriguez
2151
2250
+99



Points worth noting:

Those projections for Ripken, Gwynn, and Boggs are [...]<p>Post from: <a href="http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve">Knuckle Curve</a></p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While I&#8217;m waiting for <a href="http://animal.discovery.com/tv/puppy-bowl/puppy-bowl.html">Puppy Bowl IV</a> to arrive, I thought I&#8217;d flip through the <em>STATS 1997 Baseball Scoreboard</em> for inspiration. I&#8217;ve already used this source to <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/barry-bonds-circa-1997/">re-examine Barry Bonds</a> and now I see that there are a few more projections in here.</p>
<p>This time we&#8217;re looking at projected career hits. Specifically we&#8217;re looking at the players who were judged at that time most likely to reach 3000 hits. Let&#8217;s compare projected with actual, shall we?</p>
<table style="border: 0px none ; padding: 6px; background-color: rgb(234, 234, 234); width: 70%; font-size: 10pt;">
<caption>Career Hits, Projected pre-&#8217;97 vs Actual post-&#8217;07</caption>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Player</th>
<th>Proj</th>
<th>Act</th>
<th>Diff</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td>3166</td>
<td>3184</td>
<td>+18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tony Gwynn</td>
<td>3139</td>
<td>3141</td>
<td>+2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Wade Boggs</td>
<td>3025</td>
<td>3010</td>
<td>-15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Roberto Alomar</td>
<td>2803</td>
<td>2724</td>
<td>-79</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Rafael Palmeiro</td>
<td>2672</td>
<td>3020</td>
<td>+348</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chuck Knoblauch</td>
<td>2509</td>
<td>1839</td>
<td>-670</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Frank Thomas</td>
<td>2355</td>
<td>2409</td>
<td>+54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Marquis Grissom</td>
<td>2328</td>
<td>2251</td>
<td>-77</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alex Rodriguez</td>
<td>2151</td>
<td>2250</td>
<td>+99</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Points worth noting:</p>
<ul>
<li>Those projections for Ripken, Gwynn, and Boggs are almost perfect; the Alomar and Grissom projections aren&#8217;t bad either.</li>
<li>Estimates for Palmeiro turned out to be very low, while those for Knoblauch are very high. Through age 30, Knoblauch posted numbers comparable to those of Lou Whitaker. After that, Knoblauch turned into Kevin Stocker. Ouch.</li>
<li>A-Rod provides yet another reminder of why it&#8217;s dangerous to work with such small samples. He&#8217;d had precisely one full big-league season under his belt when these projections were published. Granted, it was a great season, but the fact remains that he&#8217;s blown past his career projection and he&#8217;s still in his prime. A-Rod is looking like a real good bet to finish at the top of the above list.</li>
</ul>
<p>Just a little something to contemplate&#8230;</p>
<p>Post from: <a href="http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve">Knuckle Curve</a></p>
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