Twenty Names to Know
October 18, 2007 by Geoff Young
Filed under Stats and Analysis
Nate Silver ran a piece the other day at Baseball Prospectus re-examining his earlier look at the 50 most valuable long-term commodities in baseball. He offers thoughts on biggest risers (including Justin Upton, about whom he correctly notes that “age is everything, and for a 19-year-old to come this far this fast is very special”), biggest fallers (comparing Jason Bay’s career path to that of Bobby Higginson), and his “very preliminary, off-the-cuff, subject-to-change, pre-PECOTA Top 20″ for next year.
Read the full article for all the details, but here are Silver’s projected top pitchers for 2008-2013. See if you can figure out which one doesn’t belong:
- Johan Santana, Min
- Jake Peavy, SD
- C.C. Sabathia, Cle
- Erik Bedard, Bal
- Joba Chamberlain, NYA
Hint: His last last name is the same as that of a former British prime minister.
Or one of the most dominant basketball player ever
Still though, it could happen, there is a ton in common between Joba and Roger Clemens… if you said Clemens age 21, then i doubt anyone would question.
Sure, it could happen. A lot of things could happen. If you’d said Dwight Gooden at age 21, nobody would have questioned that either.
sure, but without hindsight, I would still take Gooden age 21 over ALL those guys . as would any sane person.
the 4 other guys to different degrees are hardly the best bet of health going foward anyway. it’s a risk for all pitchers. all of them coullld blow out their arm / shoulder whatever and get out produced in that 5 year span by Livan Hernandez. does that mean you’ll take Livan though ?
You never really know with pitchers health, Tommy John had a certain surgery and pitched forever. Clemens had shoulder problems and pitched forever. Schilling had various problems over the years and he’s still around and truggding along.
If the risk is there anyway, why not take the youngest guy ? I’d definately take Peavey and Joba on that list over the other 3. if only because their probably still got their best seasons ahead of them.. espically Chamberlian.