Comments on: Upton or Cano? http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve/upton-or-cano/ Major League Baseball News from Spring Training to the World Series Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:49:23 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: RollingWave http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve/upton-or-cano/comment-page-1/#comment-1267 RollingWave Sat, 26 Jan 2008 02:47:35 +0000 http://www.knucklecurve.com/upton-or-cano/#comment-1267 Of course, Kent probably shoulda shifted position awhile ago too heh. both Kent and Biggio are late boomers though, they really shot outta nowhere in thier mid 20s and then dominated for a long time. It would be fun to watch though indeed, though i think both guys fit their respective teams better, the Yankees want a star at every position, and 2B is a position that's really hard to find consistent stars. while the Rays simply need the biggest impact player. no matter where he plays Of course, Kent probably shoulda shifted position awhile ago too heh.

both Kent and Biggio are late boomers though, they really shot outta nowhere in thier mid 20s and then dominated for a long time.

It would be fun to watch though indeed, though i think both guys fit their respective teams better, the Yankees want a star at every position, and 2B is a position that’s really hard to find consistent stars. while the Rays simply need the biggest impact player. no matter where he plays

]]> By: Geoff Young http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve/upton-or-cano/comment-page-1/#comment-1258 Geoff Young Fri, 25 Jan 2008 18:38:51 +0000 http://www.knucklecurve.com/upton-or-cano/#comment-1258 Biggio is a notable exception, as is Kent. Even Carew, though, played only 17 games at second base in his thirties. He was a good enough hitter, of course, that he could shift to a less demanding position. Most second basemen don't have that luxury. We'll see what happens... Biggio is a notable exception, as is Kent. Even Carew, though, played only 17 games at second base in his thirties. He was a good enough hitter, of course, that he could shift to a less demanding position. Most second basemen don’t have that luxury. We’ll see what happens…

]]> By: RollingWave http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve/upton-or-cano/comment-page-1/#comment-1330 RollingWave Fri, 25 Jan 2008 15:01:14 +0000 http://www.knucklecurve.com/upton-or-cano/#comment-1330 Definately, it's not really a theory, it's a fact that 2Bs are probably the 3rd riskiest position for early decline after Pitcher and catcher. Of course, you have to gamble against the risk. there's also a few more problem, 2Bs like catchers tend to be harder to move around the diamond, they usually don't hit enough to justify a LF /1B, they usually don't have enough of an arm to play 3B, they usually don't have enough speed to play CF. and obviously if they'd field enough to play SS they'd be there in the first place. And since most 2Bs don't hit much. once they fall off a bit they're really below replacement level anyway. so that lowers their lifespan even more. I'm not sure what to make of Giles and Baerga, espically Giles who really just seem to have completely random ups and downs in power both in the minors and the majors (he was hitting like Roger Hornsby in A ball then had his power continue to fall as he move up until 2003 when he had another ridiculas spike and repeated the process .) I could think of one reason, but i don't want to go there without further evidence obviously.(the *) I didn't follow baseball as much when I was a kid in th early to mid 90s so i really don't know what the hell happened to Baerga. and he really is Cano's biggest worry because their career path is very simialr. he's peak years also happened in the strike shortened seasons which mess things up even more. was he hurt around 95/96 ? it certainly look a little like that as he only played 126 game in 96 ... and he's speed also completely vanished from that point on, it seems that he was either seriously hurt or he had a age gate problem or something. of corse then there are guys like Biggio and Carew that just kept chugging on... then there's the median case like Alomar and Sandberg ... still, we can't predict injuries. and it doesn't change the fact that good 2Bs are rare and the bar for the hall are low. Definately, it’s not really a theory, it’s a fact that 2Bs are probably the 3rd riskiest position for early decline after Pitcher and catcher.

Of course, you have to gamble against the risk. there’s also a few more problem, 2Bs like catchers tend to be harder to move around the diamond, they usually don’t hit enough to justify a LF /1B, they usually don’t have enough of an arm to play 3B, they usually don’t have enough speed to play CF. and obviously if they’d field enough to play SS they’d be there in the first place.

And since most 2Bs don’t hit much. once they fall off a bit they’re really below replacement level anyway. so that lowers their lifespan even more.

I’m not sure what to make of Giles and Baerga, espically Giles who really just seem to have completely random ups and downs in power both in the minors and the majors (he was hitting like Roger Hornsby in A ball then had his power continue to fall as he move up until 2003 when he had another ridiculas spike and repeated the process .)

I could think of one reason, but i don’t want to go there without further evidence obviously.(the *)

I didn’t follow baseball as much when I was a kid in th early to mid 90s so i really don’t know what the hell happened to Baerga. and he really is Cano’s biggest worry because their career path is very simialr. he’s peak years also happened in the strike shortened seasons which mess things up even more. was he hurt around 95/96 ? it certainly look a little like that as he only played 126 game in 96 … and he’s speed also completely vanished from that point on, it seems that he was either seriously hurt or he had a age gate problem or something.

of corse then there are guys like Biggio and Carew that just kept chugging on… then there’s the median case like Alomar and Sandberg …

still, we can’t predict injuries. and it doesn’t change the fact that good 2Bs are rare and the bar for the hall are low.

]]> By: Geoff Young http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve/upton-or-cano/comment-page-1/#comment-1227 Geoff Young Fri, 25 Jan 2008 14:05:50 +0000 http://www.knucklecurve.com/upton-or-cano/#comment-1227 You raise some excellent points, and I find myself in total agreement with your final paragraph. My biggest concern with Cano is this: I have a pet theory about second basemen (which I haven't investigated thoroughly) that they don't age well. Jeff Kent is sort of the exception (as were Joe Morgan and Lou Whitaker before him). For example, what would you have said about Carlos Baerga, Roberto Alomar, or Marcus Giles after their age 25 season? Here are their career numbers to that point, along with Cano's: Cano: .314/.346/.489, 117 OPS+ Baerga: .302/.342/.454, 116 Alomar: .297/.364/.416, 116 Giles: .285/.362/.476, 115 Baerga was useless after age 26, Alomar had a fine career but fell off a cliff after age 33, and Giles appears to have little left at age 29. Will Cano follow any of these paths? Not necessarily, but it's a valid concern. That said, I think you nailed it with Cano and Upton in terms of risk vs upside. Either way, if both stay healthy, it should be fun to watch them over the next decade or so... You raise some excellent points, and I find myself in total agreement with your final paragraph. My biggest concern with Cano is this: I have a pet theory about second basemen (which I haven’t investigated thoroughly) that they don’t age well. Jeff Kent is sort of the exception (as were Joe Morgan and Lou Whitaker before him).

For example, what would you have said about Carlos Baerga, Roberto Alomar, or Marcus Giles after their age 25 season? Here are their career numbers to that point, along with Cano’s:

Cano: .314/.346/.489, 117 OPS+
Baerga: .302/.342/.454, 116
Alomar: .297/.364/.416, 116
Giles: .285/.362/.476, 115

Baerga was useless after age 26, Alomar had a fine career but fell off a cliff after age 33, and Giles appears to have little left at age 29. Will Cano follow any of these paths? Not necessarily, but it’s a valid concern.

That said, I think you nailed it with Cano and Upton in terms of risk vs upside. Either way, if both stay healthy, it should be fun to watch them over the next decade or so…

]]> By: RollingWave http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve/upton-or-cano/comment-page-1/#comment-1326 RollingWave Fri, 25 Jan 2008 10:45:13 +0000 http://www.knucklecurve.com/upton-or-cano/#comment-1326 I don't think it's really a question of wether Upton is the better hitter, he is, there's little question about that. but the bar for 2Bs offesenively is one of the lowest. we could argue today that it's probably even lower than SS nowadays (think of how many good hit SS there is, then think of good hit 2Bs.. you get the picture ) so the disscusion here must consider the rarity of the player. Upton is a very very talented player. but does he really stand out between guys like Sizemore / Granderson? could some of the up and commers like Rasmus / Jones / Kemp / Bruce /and his own brother match him? meanwhile, name 3 active 2B that you think will have a better or comparable career to Cano right now. ... and /or name 3 2B prospect that you think could match him... you see the point? If we take them apart for a sec and simply look at Cano against 2Bs of the past. it's pretty scary, Cano's career OPS is .835 , he is the ONLY 2B at this age with more than 1 full season under his belt to have a OPS over .800 since world war 2 !! obviously era context is partially responsible for this, but in terms of count stats he's doing remarkablly well in hits and home runs. he's essentially out homering ALL 2Bs at the same stage in the entire baseball history and his hit pace is right along side several 3000 hit 2Bs. His downside obviously is the lack of walks. though he did improve significantly in 07 particularly towards the second half when he had a 33/24 K/BB in the last 75 game (includign 4 IBB and 3 HBP ) and he actually walked 12 times vs 11 K in the month of August, it seems that he and the Yankees are at least aware of the issue and making notable efforts to improve . I think both guys are fairly capable of getting in Cooperstown if they stay on track . the issue though is that the bar for cooperstown is much lower for Cano than it would be for Upton. In the end i think the fair comp is to say that Cano 's ceiling is clealry lower, but that he's already fairly close to reaching it and there's little room for him to flop. while Upton might be a tad more risky. but his ceiling is a inner circle hall of famer. I don’t think it’s really a question of wether Upton is the better hitter, he is, there’s little question about that. but the bar for 2Bs offesenively is one of the lowest. we could argue today that it’s probably even lower than SS nowadays (think of how many good hit SS there is, then think of good hit 2Bs.. you get the picture ) so the disscusion here must consider the rarity of the player. Upton is a very very talented player. but does he really stand out between guys like Sizemore / Granderson? could some of the up and commers like Rasmus / Jones / Kemp / Bruce /and his own brother match him? meanwhile, name 3 active 2B that you think will have a better or comparable career to Cano right now. … and /or name 3 2B prospect that you think could match him… you see the point?

If we take them apart for a sec and simply look at Cano against 2Bs of the past. it’s pretty scary, Cano’s career OPS is .835 , he is the ONLY 2B at this age with more than 1 full season under his belt to have a OPS over .800 since world war 2 !! obviously era context is partially responsible for this, but in terms of count stats he’s doing remarkablly well in hits and home runs. he’s essentially out homering ALL 2Bs at the same stage in the entire baseball history and his hit pace is right along side several 3000 hit 2Bs.

His downside obviously is the lack of walks. though he did improve significantly in 07 particularly towards the second half when he had a 33/24 K/BB in the last 75 game (includign 4 IBB and 3 HBP ) and he actually walked 12 times vs 11 K in the month of August, it seems that he and the Yankees are at least aware of the issue and making notable efforts to improve .

I think both guys are fairly capable of getting in Cooperstown if they stay on track . the issue though is that the bar for cooperstown is much lower for Cano than it would be for Upton.

In the end i think the fair comp is to say that Cano ’s ceiling is clealry lower, but that he’s already fairly close to reaching it and there’s little room for him to flop. while Upton might be a tad more risky. but his ceiling is a inner circle hall of famer.

]]> By: Geoff Young http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve/upton-or-cano/comment-page-1/#comment-1319 Geoff Young Thu, 24 Jan 2008 14:24:32 +0000 http://www.knucklecurve.com/upton-or-cano/#comment-1319 Actually, I like your parameters better because now I can include Tim Raines. :-) As you requested: 1. B.J. Upton, 2007, 136 OPS+, age 22 2. David Wright, 2005, 139, 22 3. Miguel Cabrera, 2005, 151, 22 4. Grady Sizemore, 2005, 123, 22 5. Miguel Cabrera, 2004, 130, 21 6. Adam Dunn, 2002, 121, 22 7. Albert Pujols, 2002, 151, 22 8. Albert Pujols, 2001, 157, 21 9. Alex Rodriguez, 1998, 136, 22 10. Vladimir Guerrero, 1998, 150, 22 11. Ben Grieve, 1998, 123, 22 12. Alex Rodriguez, 1997, 120, 21 13. Scott Rolen, 1997, 121, 22 14. Alex Rodriguez, 1996, 160, 20 15. Juan Gonzalez, 1992, 133, 22 16. Ken Griffey, 1992, 149, 22 17. Juan Gonzalez, 1991, 121, 21 18. Ken Griffey, 1991, 155, 21 19. Ken Griffey, 1990, 135, 20 20. Darryl Strawberry, 1984, 127, 22 21. Cal Ripken, 1983, 144, 22 22. Kent Hrbek, 1982, 128, 22 23. Tom Brunansky, 1982, 129, 21 24. Rickey Henderson, 1981, 150, 22 25. Tim Raines, 1981, 135, 21 26. Rickey Henderson, 1980, 134, 21 27. Paul Molitor, 1979, 126, 22 28. Bob Horner, 1979, 135, 21 29. Jack Clark, 1978, 152, 22 30. Eddie Murray, 1978, 140, 22 31. Jason Thompson, 1977, 121, 22 32. Eddie Murray, 1977, 123, 21 33. Ellis Valentine, 1977, 124, 22 Grieve, Brunansky, and Thompson all reached the big leagues with "old-player skills" and declined very early. The same is true, to a lesser degree, of Hrbek and Horner. Additionally, Horner had injury problems, as did Valentine. It's too early to tell what we have in Upton, Wright, Cabrera, Sizemore, and Dunn, although all look brilliant so far. Pujols and Vlad are on HOF tracks, A-Rod and Griffey are already assured a spot. Henderson will be there as soon as he's eligible, Raines should be. Ripken, Molitor, and Murray are in the HOF. Rolen and Juan Gone were on HOF tracks at one point but got hurt. Ditto Strawberry, but substitute "into drugs" for "hurt." Clark had a career OPS+ of 137 but played a corner spot and was injured all the time. If he'd enjoyed Jim Rice's health, he'd be a HOFer. Although Cano isn't on this list, he may well be the most underrated Yankee since Posada. Then again, I don't consider Posada underrated. :-) Thanks for the thoughtful comment... Actually, I like your parameters better because now I can include Tim Raines. :-)

As you requested:

1. B.J. Upton, 2007, 136 OPS+, age 22
2. David Wright, 2005, 139, 22
3. Miguel Cabrera, 2005, 151, 22
4. Grady Sizemore, 2005, 123, 22
5. Miguel Cabrera, 2004, 130, 21
6. Adam Dunn, 2002, 121, 22
7. Albert Pujols, 2002, 151, 22
8. Albert Pujols, 2001, 157, 21
9. Alex Rodriguez, 1998, 136, 22
10. Vladimir Guerrero, 1998, 150, 22
11. Ben Grieve, 1998, 123, 22
12. Alex Rodriguez, 1997, 120, 21
13. Scott Rolen, 1997, 121, 22
14. Alex Rodriguez, 1996, 160, 20
15. Juan Gonzalez, 1992, 133, 22
16. Ken Griffey, 1992, 149, 22
17. Juan Gonzalez, 1991, 121, 21
18. Ken Griffey, 1991, 155, 21
19. Ken Griffey, 1990, 135, 20
20. Darryl Strawberry, 1984, 127, 22
21. Cal Ripken, 1983, 144, 22
22. Kent Hrbek, 1982, 128, 22
23. Tom Brunansky, 1982, 129, 21
24. Rickey Henderson, 1981, 150, 22
25. Tim Raines, 1981, 135, 21
26. Rickey Henderson, 1980, 134, 21
27. Paul Molitor, 1979, 126, 22
28. Bob Horner, 1979, 135, 21
29. Jack Clark, 1978, 152, 22
30. Eddie Murray, 1978, 140, 22
31. Jason Thompson, 1977, 121, 22
32. Eddie Murray, 1977, 123, 21
33. Ellis Valentine, 1977, 124, 22

Grieve, Brunansky, and Thompson all reached the big leagues with “old-player skills” and declined very early. The same is true, to a lesser degree, of Hrbek and Horner. Additionally, Horner had injury problems, as did Valentine.

It’s too early to tell what we have in Upton, Wright, Cabrera, Sizemore, and Dunn, although all look brilliant so far.

Pujols and Vlad are on HOF tracks, A-Rod and Griffey are already assured a spot.

Henderson will be there as soon as he’s eligible, Raines should be.

Ripken, Molitor, and Murray are in the HOF.

Rolen and Juan Gone were on HOF tracks at one point but got hurt. Ditto Strawberry, but substitute “into drugs” for “hurt.”

Clark had a career OPS+ of 137 but played a corner spot and was injured all the time. If he’d enjoyed Jim Rice’s health, he’d be a HOFer.

Although Cano isn’t on this list, he may well be the most underrated Yankee since Posada. Then again, I don’t consider Posada underrated. :-)

Thanks for the thoughtful comment…

]]> By: RollingWave http://www.everyjoe.com/knucklecurve/upton-or-cano/comment-page-1/#comment-1248 RollingWave Thu, 24 Jan 2008 02:54:42 +0000 http://www.knucklecurve.com/upton-or-cano/#comment-1248 comeon Geoff that search will only end up with players BETTER than Upton. that's not a indicator of what he's going to be. almost everyone on that list had very productive major league seasons BEFORE the age of 22 . Upton didn't. when doing such searchss you can't use your player as the floor, you must widen it to something like all seasons under age of 23 OPS+ > 120 to be more relevent. I think Upton is a very special player, but Cano is probably one of the most underrated Yankee since Jorge Posada. comeon Geoff that search will only end up with players BETTER than Upton. that’s not a indicator of what he’s going to be. almost everyone on that list had very productive major league seasons BEFORE the age of 22 . Upton didn’t. when doing such searchss you can’t use your player as the floor, you must widen it to something like all seasons under age of 23 OPS+ > 120 to be more relevent.

I think Upton is a very special player, but Cano is probably one of the most underrated Yankee since Jorge Posada.

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