When Konerko Was More Suspect Than Prospect

Sometimes I get lucky and write something that makes me look smart 9 years later. Back in October 1998, after Paul Konerko’s first extended trial in the big leagues and just before the Cincinnati Reds traded him to the Chicago White Sox for outfielder Mike Cameron, I’d defended Konerko as a prospect. Here’s my favorite part:

Realistically, assuming Konerko is given the opportunity to play every day, and assuming he is able to make the adjustments all young players must make when they step up to a higher level (and there’s no reason based on his past history to believe he cannot), Konerko should consistently put up numbers on the order of .280/.370/.550 for the next 8-12 years, numbers which Karros once approached, at age 27. Konerko’s ceiling is more along the lines of Jeff Bagwell. If he doesn’t develop as expected, he could settle into another Eric Karros, which would certainly be disappointing but by no means embarrassing.

Well, Bagwell was probably a bit of a stretch. Entering 2007, though, Konerko’s list of similar players through age 30 includes guys like Carlos Lee and Derrek Lee — no shame in that. As for the .280/.370/.550 line? Since he’s been in Chicago, Konerko is batting .284/.356/.502. That’s not quite what I predicted, but it’s not too far off either.

Anyway, I’d better go soak in the hot tub for a while. I think I pulled a muscle patting myself on the back.