Where Pitchers Pitch
November 2, 2006 by Geoff Young
Filed under Stats and Analysis
Which pitchers work the inner half or the plate, and which live on the outer edge? Who works up in the zone, and who keeps the ball down? And does any of this matter?
These are the questions David Appelman attempts to answer at Baseball Analysts. Appelman, who runs the invaluable Fan Graphs, breaks down pitch location by handedness of batter and pitcher, and then looks at which pitchers work in which areas most often.
Some of the names are expected (Randy Johnson and Johan Santana both work inside), others not so much (Roger Clemens tends to stay on the outer half). And although Appelman isn’t able to find any strong correlations (a little between vertical location of pitches and groundball/flyball tendencies, but that’s about it), this is a fascinating line of research that is only just now being tapped. As Appelman notes in his conclusion, “There’s a lot to be learned from pitch location and it’s going to take some complex modeling to fully interpret it along with pitch-type and velocity.”
This sounds like a tremendous amount of work, and I’m sure it will be. I’m also pretty confident that some useful information will come from the effort. I’ll be watching and waiting…
Very interesting. I think a useful next step would be to sort these numbers by the type of pitcher. Mariano Rivera and Chad Bradford are the top relievers at pitching inside but they couldn’t be further apart in terms of stuff. Match this data to similar analysis of hitters and it may show that certain types of pitchers do well against certain types of hitters. Something I think we all suspect but has never really been quantified.
The Basball Analysts site has some great stuff, like the breakdowns of pitcher and hitter mechanics. One of the things that’s always bothered me about the boom in amateur sabermetrics is that too much emphasis is placed on numbers and not enough on actually watching the players. Baseball Analysts and others are starting to correct that.
Couldn’t agree more, Anthony. Using statistical analysis in collaboration with visual evidence is the nex great step. The spirit of sabermetrics (as I understand it) always has been to ask questions with the intent of learning more about baseball. Stats are a big part of that, for sure, but the emphasis is exaggerated at times. If the numbers don’t help answer a meaningful question, then they aren’t of much use. The guys at Baseball Analysts are doing great work, and the pitching breakdowns over at Baseball Think Factory are some of the most compelling pieces of analysis I’ve seen in quite some time. I’m glad to see more movement in this direction.
Like everything else these days, the internet breeds self-appointed stats experts who can crunch numbers and spout off at BTF or other blogs. One of my biggest pet peeves this last season was people looking at Jake Peavy’s stats and saying there was nothing wrong, it’s just bad luck, etc. Anyone who actually watched him could see he was having trouble finishing off hitters and even had a touch of Eaton-itis, grooving a fastball at the worst possible time.
Just because something isn’t showing up in whatever stat is fashionable doesn’t mean there’s not something there. He’ll make some adjustments this off season, get motivated by his sub par performance and come back strong next year. You can be sure some people will use that as proof that last season was just “bad luck”, probably people who’ve never seen him pitch beyond a few highlights on Sportscenter.