Maybe Michael Beasley should have been standing in front of Derrick Rose?

Image details: 2008 NBA Draft served by picapp.com

Can you use math to predict how good a college player will become in the NBA?

Chris Doughty, a 2008 industrial and operations engineering graduate of the University of Michigan, pointed me to a cool regression analysis of the great John Hollinger. Using data from current NBA players, Hollinger sees how well the players’ college stats explain their subsequent performance in the NBA.
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According to John, Rudy Gay, Marcus Williams, and Rajon Rondo would be the best 3 players from the 2006 draft.

So, who does John pick in the latest draft?

Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Darrell Arthur, Marreese Speights, D. J. Augustin, and then Rose.

It’s particularly interesting to see what happens to players like Darrell Arthur who had very different Hollinger and actual draft ratings. Hollinger ranked Arthur 3rd in projected PER (player efficiency rating) but Arthur was taken 27th. (Donte Greene, Kosta Koufus, Roy Hibbert, and Marreese Speights were also undervalued by the regression’s lights).

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O.J. Mayo was traded for big Kevin Love

Image details: 2008 NBA Draft served by picapp.com

Hold on to your hats. There has been a trade between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Ok, wake up, there may be some important stuff happening here.

O.J. Mayo was traded in an 8 person deal.

That’s good because Mayo didn’t come cheap. In addition to parting with the draft rights to forward Kevin Love, the No. 5 pick, Memphis gave up Mike Miller, a sharp-shooting guard who is extremely valued around the league. The Grizzlies were able to dump the remaining two years and $13 million on Brian Cardinal’s contract while also sending center Jason Collins, whose contract expires after the upcoming season, to Minnesota. In return, the Timberwolves unloaded Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker and Greg Buckner.

The contracts of Walker and Buckner aren’t guaranteed past the upcoming season, but Jaric has three years and $21.3 million left. Getting rid of Jaric gives Minnesota the potential to be a significant player in the bountiful free-agent summer of 2010.

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Ok, what just happened here?

Opinions were divided. Love has the potential to be a long time starter and solid player. Mayo has the potential to be a star.

Minnesota wanted Mike Miller for his shooting and wanted to get under the cap for the 2010 free agents. They got that.

Memphis wanted some star power.

Both teams have a history of mucking up the trade wars. One needs only to look at the two NBA finals teams. Pau Gasol came from Memphis to the Los Angeles Lakers. Kevin Garnett came from the Timberwolves to the Boston Celtics. This left what? Memphis – 0 Minnesota – young Al Jefferson. Of course, don’t forget the Brandon Roy for Foye Minnesota trade. Who is Foye? Who knows, but Minnesota wanted him.

So O.J. Mayo ends up playing for the Memphis Grizzlies for now and Kevin Love plays for Minnesota for now. For now being the key words.

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Take a look at these prospects for the NBA.

Derrick Rose, Freshman PG, Memphis
Expected to go: 1 or 2 | NBA comparisons: Baron Davis, Dwyane Wade, Devin Harris
Talk to me: “Rose has done everything humanly possible to make a case for himself to be considered the #1 overall pick in the 2008 NBA Draft. While just a few weeks ago it was virtually a guarantee that Michael Beasley would claim that spot, Rose has now, at the very least, given NBA GMs plenty to think about before deciding to pass him up. Depending on which team lands the top pick, and what their point guard situation looks like, it’s not ludicrous at all to suggest at this point that he might even be the one.” — J. Givony, DraftExpress

Derrick Rose scoring easily for Memphis on my Michigan State Spartans

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Watching this guy destroy my Michigan State Spartans was actually fun. What a spectacular athlete. How easy he scores.

Of course he had help with Chris Douglass-Roberts a lanky junior that easily gets into the paint and scores with a silky jumper.

Or how about Kevin Love (played against my Spartans early in the year). Kevin establishes himself on the blocks and you cannot move him. Scores in a variety of ways.

Think of Tyler Hansbrough. They say he is not a great athlete, but every time you watch him, he is blowing by someone with a fancy move and taking it to the rack.

The list goes on.
Darrell Arthur, Kansas
Ty Lawson, NC
Brandon Rush Kansas

This is a star studded final four.

NBA Basketball special comment The NBA scouts will be salivating over these games.

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