I’m no Nostradamus when it comes to forecasting players’ draft positions, as you can probably already tell.

My NBA draft predictions weren’t exactly Matt Millen-esque, actually far from it, however a couple of glaring mistakes certainly overshadowed the brilliant gems.

Like anyone is keeping score at home, besides me that is.

I keep score.

In previous posts I predicted

Shawn James, a shot blocker out of Duquesne, would be drafted.

I also was high on St. Joes forward Pat Calathes. He too was not drafted. However, I happened to notice that Jay Bilas had Pat Calathes on his list of 6 best remaining players not yet drafted, though that was after pick # 59.

My big monstrosity of an error was the George Hill prediction. Plain and simple I didn’t expect teams to have much respect for George, the little Summit League star from IUPUI.

I will say it again for whoever may have missed it: Seeing George Hill play in person, as I did late in the season last year, didn’t really allow me to gage his full repertoire and potential.

Obviously that’s my excuse and I’m sticking to it.

Now my opinion about the kid could have been swayed because of the complete beating Oakland U put on IUPUI that night, though I would have hoped it would not have because that’s not a sensible way to go about forming opinions on players. Thinking back I probably let the outcome of the game affect what I thought about George Hill.

Still doesn’t mean he will be any good but…

The guy was picked in the first round and by the San Antonio Spurs no less!

Victories

At least Sasha Kaun and Malik Hairston were drafted. And at least D.J. White was drafted in round one, even though the team who drafted him didn’t keep him.

Another little victory for me was Bill Walker. Yeah, he slipped a bit, but he’s on the best NBA team out there right now.

And finally I’d like to take credit and say I knew Jason Thompson would be a top #15 pick, but that would be a lie. Though I did say he was intriguing…

A morsel of my last post discussed Chris Douglas-Roberts’s draft night gag, and as expected, nothing much was accomplished. I guess the post was a good excuse to get Shawn Marion’s name out there, Kevin Martin’s as well, but of course I whiffed at the chance to link out to some frequently visited pro basketball blogs.

Lesson learned.

Mental note forwarded.

Will whore myself out more for the chance of getting more pv’s in the future.

So anyway, the whole story of why CDR’s stock dropped so excessively can be explained quite simply. It’s not as wondrous as a Harry Potter adventure… or an ominous kidney—but it will do for now, at least until Joe Dumars can escape the area so the steadfast anti-Tayshaun Prince portion of Metro Detroit doesn’t tear down his residence with him in it, or worse, leak out malicious, yet well meaning, trade proposals of a re-acquisition of Darko!

CDR apparently took the easy route during the draft workout period. It seems that CDR was extremely confident he would not be around at #20. Thus not only did he decline a workout with the Detroit Pistons, an organization’s fan base who is desperately wondering why Walter Sharpe was picked instead of CDR, he also most likely declined workout invitations from various other teams selecting after pick #20. If that assertion is valid, then shame on CDR for having a bigger head than Placido Polanco and for not putting himself out there to the best of his ability. After all, jobs are hard to come by in the NBA, very hard. There aren’t many openings, but when there are, there’s dozens and dozens of talented guys who would do anything to fill them.

Being picky about who you workout for not only sends a bad message to the teams he blew off, but the league as a whole. You can be sure other teams took note of his behavior.

So it seems that the “unorthodox” label was only part of the pie.

But being that CDR is from Detroit, there could be even more to the story.

Maybe a demon or two lurk in CDR’s Detroit past? Maybe he’s acutely aware of a leech like entourage waiting for him, waiting to engulf him, to suck from him the very strength and focus he had in order to make it out in the first place.

But that would only explain Detroit.

Everything aside,

CDR and I will still get paid.

As day 4 of the Pre-Draft camp in Orlando came to a close, one must wonder if any one player actually made a solidified mark in the minds of the scouts.

After all, Darrell Arthur, Michael Beasley Joe Alexander, O.J. Mayo, Derrick Rose, Donte Greene, Anthony Randolph, JaVale McGee, D.J. Augustin, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez, Jerryd Bayless, and DeAndre Jordan did not participate in the actual games. These guys were defined as “physical only players” during the duration of the camp.

Fatigue began to set in for many of the prospects and scouts in attendance here in day four, causing much of the attention to turn to the 15 physical-only players, who were here to participate in the combine and conduct light drills and skills-based workouts that drew quite a crowd of high-level NBA executives.

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So the players in attendance were not exactly playing against the best the draft has to offer.

Of the 62 names on the participant list, only a handful – namely North Carolina’s Ty Lawson and Cal’s DeVon Hardin – are receiving significant mention as potential first-rounders.

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So was the camp just a big waste of time and money? Should the NBA entice the more intriguing pro prospects to come and play instead of allowing them to sit back and be “physical only players?” Part of the dilemma is the uneasiness of guys like Beasley, Rose and Mayo to participate and take the chance of getting injured or playing poorly during the games. They would just assume lay low and let their past playing days speak for themselves, which if fine and dandy if they’re guaranteed to be a lottery pick, but overall it really waters down the competition at the camp.

A scout present at the camp had this to add

“In the past you’d have guys here trying to move up in the first round of the draft or trying to jump from the second round to the first,” one general manager said. “But now the kids don’t want to come any more. Some of them are so scared of hurting their stock that they end up not doing anything to help it.”

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Even worse, many players who are supposed first rounder’s — yet aren’t exactly guaranteed anything — declined invitations to the camp.

Some of them included Mario Chalmers, Bill Walker, D.J. White, Ryan Anderson, Roy Hibbert, Chris Douglas- Roberts and Jason Thompson.

If I were a scout or GM, I would feel better about seeing more of Tywon Lawson, DeVon Hardin or Joey Dorsey than seeing nothing of a Bill Walker or Roy Hibbert kind of prospect. I think deciding to play in this camp, and basically showcasing your skills for all 30 teams to ponder, shows more about a guy’s character than a guy deciding to decline, therefore avoiding taking a chance either way.

Now for guys like Rose or Mayo, or basically all of the 15 players I mentioned at the beginning save McGee, Greene and Randolph, I can understand them not wanting to participate considering there’s not much else to prove. But for the other guys, shoot, take advantage of the situation, improve your stock and ensure that you actually get chosen in the area you want.

Take D.J. White for example…

He’s currently on that 1st round bubble. A couple good showings during the camp could have essentially put him comfortably into the 1st round. If at all else, teams will become more familiar with you and are much more likely to choose you instead of someone they’re less familiarized with.

Be sure to check out Day 4’s strong performances here.

Comments, questions and suggestions are always appreciated.

The 08/09 Indiana Hoosier basketball team will look nothing like the team that made it to the NCAA tournament last year. Not only is former Marquette coach Tom Crean replacing unsuccessful interim Dan Dakich, but 6 recruits are essentially replacing just about all of last year’s squad.

This mess can be attributed to Kelvin Sampson, who all in all committed 5 major violations (along with Indiana), while at Indiana according to the NCAA. But I’m not here to bore you with all the details of Sampson’s wrongdoings.

I’m here to introduce the 08/09 Indiana basketball team, a completely revamped team in which many freshman and junior college recruits will be asked to play huge minutes.

Let’s start out with the seniors…

The Hoosier’s 07/08 seniors included D.J. White, Lance Stemler, Mike White, Adam Ahfield, and also A.J. Ratliff, who had left the team for good in February. The Hoosiers will sorely miss D.J. White, but nobody else out of that class will be missed too much.

The star…

With Eric Gordon’s departure for the greener pastures of the NBA, one would think winning next season would be a grind without him back, but not an insurmountable task.

But taking into consideration the dismissal of Armon Bassett (11.4 ppg in 29 games) and Jamarcus Ellis (6.8 ppg in 32 games) from the team when Dakich was still at the helm, and no welcome back handshake from Crean, the immediate future of the team looks very dim.

More bad news…

DeAndre Thomas (3.6ppg in 32 games) was asked by Crean not to return, as was Brandon McGee, just recently dismissed last week. And one cannot forget about reading the story of Eli Holman’s tantrum in the coach’s office. Eli will transfer to Detroit.

So that leaves a once storied Indiana program in a world of hurt. And it’s a little worse of a hurt than it seems right now. Many media outlets are reporting Indiana will have 3 players back from last year’s team, but in all actuality Indiana is only returning one player, sophomore Jordan Crawford (9.7 ppg in 30 games). No disrespect for walk-ons here, but returning senior Kyle Taber and sophomore Brett Finklemeier are not what you would call rotation type players at the Big Ten level, not many walk-ons are. However with that being said, Crean just might be forced to give a few walk-ons some serious playing time next year. And with just 9 players currently on the roster, the walk-on tryouts should be nothing short of controlled chaos.

The newbie’s at Indiana…

According to rivals.com and other recruiting sites, Indiana does not boast a single 4 or 5 star recruit for the 08/09 class. Now this really does not mean a whole lot in terms of the overall talent coming to Indiana, but in all honesty, 4 and 5 star recruits have a much better shot at being very good players at the college level than do the lower star recruits. Despite it, Indiana is still ranked in the top half of the conference in terms of the strength of the 08/09 recruiting class. I won’t even get into talking about all of the high level recruits who decided to change their mind and attend college elsewhere after the Sampson ordeal.

The JC’s

Junior college transfers Devon Dumes and Tijan Jobe will step right in and probably start. 6’2 Dumes is from Vincennes JC and scored 16.9ppg last year. Interestingly enough Dumes has played DI basketball before, scoring 8.1 ppg in 32 games with the Eastern Michigan Eagles in 06/07. Dumes will have 2 years of eligibility left.

Jobe is a 7’0 footer from Olney Central JC. Jobe is a native of Gambia and has only been in the States for 4 years. At Olney Jobe scored just 4 ppg. But Olney’s coach Mike Burris has said Jobe’s game has a lot of upside and he compares him to former Marquette big man Ousmane Barro.

“His body and game are better suited at the (major) college level. He runs, he’s raw offensively but he can really defend. He’ll dunk everything within 5 feet. He’s got a lot of upside and potential to his game and he’s a high character kid.”

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Jobe sounds like starter material on a 10 win team doesn’t he?

As for the other set in stone newcomers, there seems to be a heavy allotment of 3 star guards.

From scout.com

Verdell Jones is 6’4 and is rated the 32nd best point guard in this class.

Nick Williams is 6’4 and is rated the 36th best shooting guard in this class.

6’3 Matt Roth has a 3 star rating like the other guards, but it not rated at all in terms of shooting guard rankings.

Rounding out the class is 6’8 big man Tom Pritchard (3 star), but for Big Ten purposes you might as well call him a small forward. Pritchard is not rated in terms of power forward rankings.

So the rebuilding process has already hit Crean pretty darn hard. I have to wonder if he regrets his decision to leave a pretty well stacked Marquette team. But complacency is never a good thing and maybe Crean wanted nothing to do with it. I’ll give Crean credit where it’s due. He has started to mold this program back into one of class and respect, and for that he should be commended. This rebuilding process looks to be a grueling one just by the looks of the 08/09 season, but Crean is the man for the job. He put Marquette squarely on the map with a Final Four appearance and multiple other tourney berths, so why can’t he get Indiana back onto the map too?

In 1 or 2 years, no way. But in 3 or 4 looks like a safe bet.

Do you love to listen and read about what is being said regarding your school’s player(s) who stayed for all four years? All too often these guys who stay until they’re seniors are not going to be lottery picks, and most will not even be first rounders. It’s almost as if these players have become boring and predictable. But many fans and alumni of the school enjoy seeing their guys get drafted despite not getting tons of attention.

Here are some seniors I believe will be drafted higher than expected and will carve out respectable careers in the NBA.

SF Pat Calathes St. Joes (Sr)- A very good performance in the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament last month gave 6’10 Calathes some extra publicity. According to Draft Express.com, some of the scouts in attendance had never seen Calathes play before. Most scouts came away impressed with Calathe’s effortless ability to shoot three pointers and seemingly solid know how of the fundamentals of the game. Strength and quickness will be obstacles Pat will need to overcome if he is to be drafted. Many mock draft boards I’ve looked at are void of any “Pat Calathes”. But how many 6’10 guys can shoot from downtown as well as Pat? I believe that strength alone will propel him to be a late 2nd round pick. A ten year career in the league would not surprise me.

PF D.J. White Indiana (Sr)- Being from Big Ten country, I’ve seen White play many games. His all around game is what has always impressed me. He has improved his jump shot enough to where he can be a legitimate threat from outside of ten feet, something he had trouble doing early in his Hoosier career. He blocks shots well and positions himself well on rebounds, but will not Wow you with athleticism or determination. Averaging a double-double as he did his senior year is no easy task in the rough and tumble Big Ten. He’s projected to be anywhere from an early to late 2nd round pick. My feeling is that a late first round team will take a chance on him, knowing what he already brings to the table is quite sufficient for an already good team.

C Sasha Kaun Kansas (Sr)- Sasha has the ability to be much better than a handful of current backup centers in the league. Kaun’s stats will never jump out because of the limited minutes he logged throughout his career. Statistically his best season was his sophomore year, but I believe his consistency he displayed during this year’s Jayhawk title run will go a long way in impressing NBA teams. He is deceptively athletic, fundamentally sound and able to put the ball in the basket forcefully. Active is a word I think of when I see Kaun lumbering up and down the court. Remember Chris Richard’s career at Florida? Well that college sixth man is now playing for an NBA team. Sasha can too.

SG/SF Malik Hairston (Sr)- This rather young twenty-one year old four year vet from Oregon U. has huge upside. I would be shocked if he fell down to a late 2nd round pick, but that situation might be the best case scenario for him, considering the last four teams to pick in the 2nd round happen to be the last four teams standing in the NBA playoffs. A very good four year career at Oregon, where he scored in double figures every season, will bode well for him. But the fact remains, can he get a lot better? If he does improve mightily, especially with ball control and defense, Malik could be a lock for a starting role down the line in his career. His 6’6 frame is very appealing, and really, he doesn’t have one glaring weakness to speak of, except maybe his lack of having one exceptional skill. All in all, I’ve always thought Malik’s game was NBA-like. And I wish he would have stayed in Michigan!

Photo Credit Newscom