Okay, you can put the calculator away now, I’m not going to trouble your mind with anymore percentages.  Now that we’ve cleared that up, I think it’s safe to say that we’ve established which teams are controlling the front of restrictor plate racing.  As if the figures weren’t scary enough for the other drivers in the garage this weekend, adding to the pressure for these other guys is the fact that these teams are also sporting eight of the twelve Chase for the Cup contenders, so if anyone was hoping that maybe a couple of these guys would be slacking off as the season dwindles down, guess again, because after last week’s dark skies produced for a headache of a race in Kansas, some of these guys need a huge points day if they want to keep their championship hopes alive.

Now, you read earlier this week that if I’m a betting man, I’m riding my mortgage on Dale Earnhardt Junior this weekend, and despite those stats that I just threw at you moments ago, I’m sticking with that plan.  But, as we’ve learned over recent years, championship contention does not rest solely with whether you win or lose … just as important is being able to provide your team with consistent top five and top ten finishes, which is why there’s a lot more riding on the line this weekend than just Winner’s Circle.  The guys on these teams are going to be clawing their way for every inch of track position they can get, especially once we get about three quarters of the way through the race.  Anyone who’s ever watched a race in Alabama knows that even the most dominant of cars will not be able to lead the entire race at this track.  In fact, when we get to that ¾ marker, there’s a very good chance that the guys that finish in the top five could be sitting somewhere between 15-20th place … that’s just the reality that is Talladega.

There are two huge factors that play a role in determining who makes up ground in the Chase this weekend, and who dreads rolling out of bed on Monday morning:  1) Avoiding the big one.  To do this, these guys are going to have to scrap the whole mentality of laying toward the back of the field all day long and making a late race surge toward the front, or else they’re very likely to get caught up in a wreck somewhere along the way;  2) Being able to push and pull.  Not sure what the heck I’m talking about?  It’s simple … you have to be able to draft at these superspeedways, there’s no two ways about it.  If your car does not have the ability to push the car in front of you, it better be able to pull the car behind you, or else you’re going to have trouble finding a running ‘mate through 500 miles, and history will show that usually translates into a very long, hard day.

Oh, and there’s also one other factor that I forgot to mention … your eventual race winner, Dale Earnhardt Jr.  I know what you’re thinking – if Junior’s going to win the race, how is he going to be a factor for the other drivers, right?  Follow me here for a second … for about four or five years now, Junior has hooked his car up with his unofficial restrictor plate teammate, Tony Stewart.  When one of them doesn’t finish well, more often than not, neither does the other.  These two have been working at these restrictor plate tracks together for years, and it’s really helped strengthen their off-track friendship.  On the other side of the coin, we have to consider the fact that Junior will be packing his bags after this year and making his way to Hendrick Motorsports for the 2008 racing season.  Is it that far-fetched to think that Dale might want to erase any problems that he may have caused by putting Hendrick’s number 5 car into the wall last weekend at Kansas?  Heck, maybe I’m way off base here – maybe neither one of these theories will hold up.  Afterall, Junior does still have current teammate Martin Truex Jr. in contention for the series Championship this year as well.  Will he be “pushing” or “pulling” Truex toward the start/finish line on Sunday?  I told you, if I’m a betting man, my money’s on Junior to bring home the checkered flag, but I’m also willing to bet that one or more driver(s) from these teams will be riding his coattails to decent finishes themselves.  The real loser in all of this are the three drivers waving the RCR banner.

Post from: EveryJoe

Talladega Wildcards

Villeneuve will race the no. 27 car for Rick Hendrick this Sunday, and his teammates over at HMS have made it known that they do not believe this is a good idea.  According to RacingOne.com, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson believe that all drivers should work their way up to a Cup race through the other series (Busch and ARCA), and even still, his inexperience could prove detrimental to one or more of the Chase contenders at a track of this nature.  Kyle Busch’s response was, “He’s doing what?  Holy cow, that’s not good.”

I’m not the type of guy that’s normally going to agree with anything that anyone from Hendrick Motorsports has to say, but in this case I feel it’s a must.  In addition to the points that Gordon and Johnson have made, there are other things that should be taken into consideration … primarily the fact that since this is a Car of Tomorrow race, the veteran stock car drivers could easily struggle with their cars at this track, let alone a driver that sat in a stock car for the first time just 24 days ago.

NASCAR’s been pretty hit or miss with some of the decisions they’ve made as of late, and I’ve got to say that not only is this one a miss … it’s downright ludicrous.

Post from: EveryJoe

Ready or Not, Here He Comes

Post from: EveryJoe

2008 Nationwide Schedule Announced

With the 2006 season serving as an exception (refer to Tony Stewart dominating the last 10 races while sitting on the outside of the Chase contenders), history has shown that the final races to determine the Cup Series Champion are typically dominated by those contending for the Cup.  It makes perfect sense when you relate race car driving to any other team sport … in baseball, the Houston Astros are one of the toughest teams you can possibly play in the last month of the season when they’re trying to catch the Cardinals or the Cubs for the Division Championship, but when they’re already out of contention, they’re a lot like the Kansas City Royals at any given point.  NFL teams dread the thought of having to play any team in the NFC East in the last 2 weeks of the football season, as 4 of the 5 teams are usually still fighting for playoff spots.  NASCAR is no different, but the exception in all of these sports is the teams that are fighting for pride.  That is why Tony Stewart absolutely turned up the heat in ’06 after an embarrassing run at Richmond that ruined his hopes at a Championship run, and this is what makes drivers like Casey Mears and Juan Pablo Montoya so dangerous as they will do anything they can to ensure that they head into the 2008 season as more established drivers.

That being said, this week you’ll want to keep an eye on Tony Stewart for your fantasy price.  Sure, he’s likely to come at a rather hefty price, but just keep this in mind … Tony Stewart has been the most consistent driver in NASCAR in the latter parts of the year nearly every year since 2002.  In the past 10 races, his only finish outside of the Top 10 came at California where he posted a solid 13th place finish and has allotted 3 wins and 7 top five’s in that span.  As if that all were not enough, Tony also heads to Kansas with the best average finish amongst all active drivers.  In six races at Kansas Speedway, Stewart has posted 2 top fives, five top tens, and a win there just last year.

Jeff Gordon has been a favorite to win at every track so far this entire season, and with the numbers he’s put up to this point, he should continue to be a favorite every week for the remainder of the season.  Gordon has led the points standings almost every week this season until the beginning of the Chase for the Cup, and then just two races into the Chase, there he is right back in front with a two point lead over fellow chaser Tony Stewart.  In six races at Kansas, Gordon has 3 top fives, two of which resulted in victories in 2001 and 2002 in the tracks inaugural Cup events.  Going into last season, Gordon’s average finish at Kansas was 6.0, but a dismal 39th place finish at the track in ’06 as dropped that average to 11.5.

Other drivers to keep an eye on at Kansas include Carl Edwards who is coming off of a win at Dover last week and has finished 3rd and 6th in his last two races at Kansas;  Kyle Busch who is coming off of two consecutive top five finishes in the past two weeks and finished in 7th place in this event last year.  And my sleeper pick for this week is non-other than Casey Mears.  Mears, who received his first career victory in the Cup Series earlier this year at Lowe’s Motor Speedway heads to Kansas with two straight top ten finishes and has had some moderate success in recent years as it relates to this track.  He finished eighth here in 2005 and second last year.

Post from: EveryJoe

Fantasy Preview – Kansas

2.  Jimmie Johnson – Coming off a victory at Richmond just 3 races ago to pick up his sixth win of the season, Johnson has just 1 Top 10 finish in the first two races of the Chase.  If he hopes to repeat as the Cup Champion this year he will need to get things going this week at Kansas.

3.  Tony Stewart – After a very disappointing start to the “Car of Tomorrow” season where the two-time Cup Champion showed points of extreme dominance only to suffer various mishaps, Stewart has turned up the heat as of late and has scored 2 Top 5’s and a Top 10 Finish in the past three races.  He’s now second in points, just 2 points behind leader Jeff Gordon and has the best average at Kansas amongst all active drivers.

4.  Carl Edwards – Carl picked up his third win of the season last week at Dover, only to have it marred in controversy via failing post-race inspections.  Nonetheless, Carl is still in the Chase and the last time he as (2005), the man from Missouri really turned up the heat in the last 10 races of the season.  Edwards still has momentum heading into Kansas.

5. Kyle Busch – After posting back-to-back Top 5 finishes in the last 2 races, Kyle will look to improve on his 2006 7th place Kansas finish in an effort to improve his chances of a Cup Championship before leaving Rick Hendrick.

6.  Clint Bowyer – After more than a year and a half of trying, all of his efforts finally paid off when Clint Bowyer picked up his first career victory in the big leagues just two weeks ago.  He’s now fifth in points and is hoping to keep his championship dreams alive with a solid outing in Kansas.

7.  Matt Kenseth – He was solid in Dover until a late race accident put him out of contention and put a serious dent in his chances to win it all this year.  He’s still looking for the momentum that guided him to a 2004 Championship, and it’s crucial that he makes good this week.

8.  Denny Hamlin – As we’ve seen so many times already in this youngster’s career, Hamlin was the class of the field last week in Dover only to suffer a fatal blow late in the race.  Still, Hamlin has been very consistent in the Car of Tomorrow when he’s not experiencing mechanical failures or pinned up against the outside retaining wall.

9.  Martin Truex, Jr. – This has without a doubt been a career year thus far for the young Truex Junior, and things are looking optimistic for him next year as well, as he is expected to become the number one driver at DEI with the departure of Earnhardt Jr.  Truex scored a Top 5 in the first week of the Chase.

10.  Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – After missing out on the Chase this year, Junior’s looking to match Tony Stewart’s performance from last year by dominating the final portion of the season and ending the 2007 year on a high note.  Last week was a good start as Dale looked solid and was able to avoid trouble while bringing home a Top 5 Finish.

Post from: EveryJoe

Power Rankings – Week of 9/24 to 9/30

From Jayski’s site: Both drivers joined the organization when it was MB2 Motorsports. Marlin began in 2006 with a base salary of $1.1 million, and that increased to $1.2 million for 2007. Nemechek started with MB2 in 2004 and received $900,000 for 2004, $1 million for 2005, $1.1 million for 2006 and $1.2 million for 2007. Both drivers got to keep 45% of their race winnings (Nemechek, who was 27th in points in 2006, had $4,099,914 million total in race winnings last year, while Marlin, 34th in points, had $3,248,034 million) and 33% of souvenir sales.

What really shouts out at me is that if middle-of-the-road drivers like Nemecheck and Marlin and making $1 million per year, imagine what Gordon, Johnson, and Stewart are making.    Now it becomes very clear as to why NASCAR is attracting open-wheel drivers.

Post from: EveryJoe

Marlin, Nemecheck Sue Ginn Racing

Times are a changin’ in NASCAR and I think it’s a good thing.  Granted, it will take even the most seasoned IRL driver at least a year to feel comfortable driving the Cup cars, but they’re definitely going to bring a new level of competition to the sport.   Juan Pablo Montoya has already shown he’s not afraid to be agressive, much to the dissatisfaction of old-school NASCAR types, but look for all of the IRL drivers to bring that type of agressiveness.

Post from: EveryJoe

IRL Drivers Heading To NASCAR

This makes Johnson a prohibitive favorite for sure.   And what about Jeff Gordon.  Let’s be honest about the 24-team as well.  Gordon won a couple of races that he had no business winning, which definitely helped his momentum in the early part of the year.  But I was skeptical of his team’s real ability even during his hot streak, and I see him fading fairly quickly during the Chase.

If anyone is going to give Johnson a run for the title, it’s going to be Tony Stewart.  He’s not afraid to take chances with a setup that may be too loose, as long as it gives him a chance to win. He’s also more hungry for the title than Gordon, and I think his drive alone will create some great racing.

Post from: EveryJoe

Is Johnson the Favorite Now?

I can think of a few, but that was a rhetorical question. We don’t want to get too deep here…

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Edwards Drives a Baseball

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Flashback: Huge Crash at Daytona