According to recent polls by Franklin & Marshall College and Quinnipiac University, Clinton holds a commanding lead among key demographics in Pennsylvania. According to the analysts at Real Clear Politics, Clinton leads by about 17%.
Let’s take a look at Clinton’s lead with various groups of likely voters:

Women – 57% for Clinton, 29% for Obama
Union Members – 67% for Clinton, 26% for Obama
Evangelicals – 45% to 38%
Whites – 57% to 29%
Those over age 55 – 55% to 29%

The only demographic in which Obama leads is non-whites, where he polls at 76%, compared to Clinton’s 12%.
Clinton also leads among voters who are …read more

Hillary Clinton’s lead in Texas has all but evaporated. A barrage of new polls indicates a virtual tie, or even a slight Obama advantage, in a state that Clinton had planned to carry without much difficulty.
Here are the numbers from the latest polls (all of likely voters):
ABC News/Washington Post –     Clinton 48% / Obama 47%
Rasmussen –                                   Clinton 46% / Obama 45%
CNN –                                               Clinton 46% / Obama 50%
SurveyUSA –                                   Clinton …read more

Nearly every pundit, blogger, and presidential candidate in the US has stated repeatedly that this election is about “change.” A direct question on a recent CBS News poll, conducted by TNS (a non-partisan survey research group) with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, seems to support this conclusion.
When asked if the next president should move the country in a new direction, or continue the path charted by the Bush administration, 79% said they would like to country to go in a new direction. This seems like an open and shut case. Eight in ten people want the …read more

In A Polling Primer we discussed how to distinguish good surveys from bad. But although scientific surveys provide trustworthy results, they might not ask the hard-hitting questions that we really need answered. Here’s a great example from Parade Magazine.
Recently, Parade.com gave visitors to its site the opportunity to answer a series of questions. Here’s the political one:
If you had to be stranded on an island with one person for a week, which of the following would you choose?
Stephen Colbert – 29%
Hillary Clinton – 23%
Barack Obama – 19%
George W. Bush – 17%
Rudy Giuliani – 12%
These results are interesting, but they don’t …read more

The best way to figure out politics, is always to follow the money. The political pundits relying on InTrade.com’s numbers for predicting the 2008 use that principle to their advantage.
InTrade.com is a trading exchange. Basically, the site’s membership speculates on the outcome of a number of future events (including political races) in much the same way that stockbrokers might speculate on margin or sports fans might lay down bets.
While most political operatives rely on polling data to make predictions, there is some reason to take a look at these sorts of speculative markets — they have a surprising tendency to …read more