I realize that most of my posts lately have been PAcentric – I don’t want anyone to think that I believe that the political world revolves around Pennsylvania, it’s just that, right now, it does.

Pennsylvania holds its Primary in one week. Tuesday, April 22nd, is the last of the hotly contested “big(ish) state” races – If Senator Clinton has a decisive win next week, as her husband, President Bill Clinton, told a crowd of steelworkers in Coatesville, PA “she can win.”

Regarding “bittergate”, personally, I don’t think that Senator Obama intended any distrespect by his statement(s). As far as “small town” Pennsylvanians go, there probably is a degree of “bitterness.” Whether or not that has led to an increase in hunting, religion and voting conservatively, I’m not sure. What has changed is the perception of the political parties, not the individual values.

When I was in my first year of law school in Philadelphia, a professor gave us a quick geography lesson. He drew a rough sketch of Pennsylvania and explaned “here in the east we have Philadelphia; In the Western part of the state you’ll find Pittsburgh” and then taking a red marker and circling the central area he said “and this part in the middle? That’s Alabama.” Being from “the middle” all I could think was, “he’s obviously never spent much time in Pittsburgh.”

Post from: EveryJoe

I was born in a Small Town

Votes Required to Win = 270

Clinton = 263

Obama = 193

Votes Remaining =  82

Difference Between Clinton and Obama =  70

So if the Electoral College were voting today between Clinton and Obama, neither candidate would have a majority. In that case, the president is chosen by the House of Representatives (which has only happened once, by the way).  Although Clinton is in the lead, Obama is only 70 votes behind. With 82 Electoral Votes as yet unassigned, he would still have a chance of making up the difference.

Post from: EveryJoe

The Electoral College Count

Here are the numbers from the latest polls (all of likely voters):

ABC News/Washington Post –     Clinton 48% / Obama 47%

Rasmussen –                                   Clinton 46% / Obama 45%

CNN –                                               Clinton 46% / Obama 50%

SurveyUSA –                                   Clinton 50% / Obama 45%

American Research Group –         Clinton 42% / Obama 50%

These polls tell us people’s preferences, but they don’t give us an understanding of “events on the ground,” as they say. But I live in Texas, and I’d like to relate a few stories from the last several days that help us understand what Obamamania looks like in a conservative town in the Texas Panhandle. I live in a town of about 10,000, populated mostly by religious and social conservatives and dominated by the local Baptist church. The town is almost entirely dry, with only one restaurant recently authorized to sell alcohol. But Obamamania has come arrived. Here’s what it looks like:

• A few days ago I was in a local grocery store. It was mid-morning, and about 6 employees were standing around chatting after the morning rush. They ranged in age from about 18 to perhaps 25, and they were all speaking excitedly about their support for Obama. This may not seem surprising, given that younger voters are supporting him in overwhelming numbers, but these aren’t big-city liberals. They are small-town Texas conservatives; they drive pickup trucks, attend church twice a week, and probably don’t go to college. To find them so excited about Obama was indeed a surprising event.
• A few weeks ago, there was a rumour that Obama would be coming to town before the March 4 Texas primary. Work spread through town like wildfire (and around here, that isn’t an idle metaphor), with everyone from local news stations to student groups and churches all scrambling to confirm the rumour.  When it turned out to be inaccurate, there was a palpable sense of disappointment. The excitement about Bill Clinton’s recent last-minute visit was intense, though comparatively tepid.
• This week I surveyed the students in a few of my courses. Over 75% indicated their support for Obama. Now these are college students, but they do not meet the stereotypical image of Obama supporters. These are kids from farming and ranching families, the overwhelming majority of whom claim to be conservative Republicans. Yet their excitement about Obama is undeniable – they ask me questions about him in class, and continue discussing him on the way out the door. These conservatives are Obamamaniacs.

March 4 is closing in on us, and if the swell of Obamamania in this conservative Texas town is any indication, the day won’t turn out the way Clinton intended it.

Post from: EveryJoe

Obamamania Hits Texas

• This was a huge week for the Obama campaign. He went into the week behind in delegate, but after sweeping all 7 Democratic contest since February 9th, Obama has pulled ahead in delegates and has gained the perception of strong momentum. In fact, in the 7 Democratic contests since Saturday (NB, WA, LA, ME, VA, MD, and DC), Obama’s average margin of victory was 31.3%.
• Obama is favored to win the next 2 Democratic contests – Wisconsin and Hawaii, both scheduled for February 19th. Two recent surveys show Obama with about a 10% lead in Wisconsin. Although there are no good recent surveys of Hawaiian voters, Obama was born in Honolulu and lived there for much of his youth. This alone makes him the favorite to win in Hawaii.
• By the time Democrats in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont vote on March 4th, it will have have an entire month since Clinton won a primary. The news media is already edging toward calling Obama the Democratic frontrunner, and after he wins in Wisconsin and Hawaii, the news will spend the following two weeks reporting on his winning momentum. Although Clinton is currently favored to win in Texas and Ohio, I consider it a very real possibility that all the media coverage of Obama’s wins will create enough momentum to bring him victory in at least one of those two big states. And of course, Democratic delegates are distributed proportionally, so even if Clinton wins in both TX and OH, but does so by small margins, Obama will retain strong representation in those state delegations at the national party convention. Remember, in the Democratic race the margin of victory in each state  is important!
• Obama is a fundraising powerhouse. He set a one-month record in January, raising an amazing $32 million. By all accounts his fundraising continues to outpace Clinton’s, and this week’s sweep can only help fuel Obama’s fundraising machine.
• In today’s so-called “Potomac Primarie,” Obama performed well among groups that have, up to now, favored Clinton. Today, Obama won among white men, and he did his best yet with women and older voters. These groups, which previously supported Clinton, seem to be slipping into Obama’s camp. And again, his sweep this week can only increase that trend.

If these five characteristics don’t make a frontrunner, then I don’t know what does.

Post from: EveryJoe

Barack Obama – Democratic Frontrunner