1. Economic forecasting is difficult.
2. Financial market forecasting is more troublesome than economic forecasting.
3. The financial sector in this country has lied a great deal.
4. The government cannot predict the economy or financial markets.

These are, of course, very good lessons to learn. It is important to realize that neither the government, nor the financial “experts”, have all the answers. No one can predict what any market is going to do, nor can anyone see all of the economic consequences of policy measures. So it is important to consider your own financial situation, and make the best decisions you can.

One way to do that is to look at things for the long term, and change your financial habits so that they reflect prudent behaviors that help you prepare to weather the down cycles. Because they will always come.

Image source: Daylife

Post from: EveryJoe

4 Lessons Ben Stein Got From the Recession

One way that you can improve your chances of getting better pricing is to look at the secondary market. There are a number of people looking to get out of their current leases, and some of them have Tier-1 lease pricing. Here is something from a press release I received from LeaseTrader.com:

“Keeping good credit is the most important part of a family’s balance sheet during this period of economic recovery,” said Sergio Stiberman, CEO and founder of LeaseTrader.com. “We’re working with people every day who have the credit to get a car lease but can’t qualify for the best payment at a dealer. Through lease transfer, these people are getting approved to take over a lease that was initially tier-1 pricing with a great, low payment.”

This news is good news for those looking for alternative solutions. However, it is important to be careful and read the fine print before agreeing to any lease swap. You want to make sure you understand the terms, and that you are actually getting what you want.

Image source: TheAlieness GiselaGiardino via Flickr

Post from: EveryJoe

Tier-1 Lease Pricing with Lower Credit

1. Consumer Confidence Index: This measures how consumers feel about the economy. It is a measure of whether or not consumers feel confident enough about the way things are moving to increase their spending or make large purchases. About 2/3 of economic activity in the U.S. is based on consumer spending, so you can see how consumer confidence is an important indicator.
2. Consumer Price Index: This is a measure of inflation. It keeps track of a basket of regularly purchased goods, such as clothing, groceries and more. You will often see a couple of different numbers, since there is often an overall number, and then a number with volatile energy prices taken out. Rising prices mean that inflation has entered the economy. In most cases, inflation is a sign of economic expansion and growth. However, too much inflation, too quickly can actually stymie economic growth and spook the markets.
3. Treasury Yield: This is a little more subtle economic indicator. However, it does have its uses. You can gauge investor sentiment with help from the Treasury yield. This is the rate that bond buyers accept when they invest in government bonds. (Note: Yield moves inversely to price.) When yields are low, it means that Treasuries are in high demand, and the government can get away with paying less interest. It also means that, since Treasuries are in demand, riskier investments like stocks are out of favor. Investors are turning to the relative safety of government bonds — which are backed by the world’s most reliable taxpayer base.

In the end, you can make more informed investment decisions, and get a better feel for the economy if you look to economic indicators and adjust accordingly.

Image source: Daylife

Post from: EveryJoe

Pay Attention to These Economic Indicators

However, even though the news sent stocks a little lower initially, they are inching up, desperate to remain in the black, even with the news. Even though the unemployment rate is higher, job loss is moving at a slower pace, and there are fewer lost jobs last month than the month before. However, the fact that 190,000 jobs were lost in October was still higher than the 150,000 expected.

This means that the Fed is looking justified in its comments earlier this week that the economy still needs some help, and that interest rate hikes — and an end to quantitative easing — won’t come until sometime next year. And if things don’t pick up in the labor market soon, it may be 2011 before we can start serious talking about interest rate increases.

Image source: Daylife

Post from: EveryJoe

U.S. Unemployment at 10.2%

Wall Street is hopeful that policymakers will continue to prop up the big companies, and focus on helping the banking system retain its stability. Investors will also be waiting to see what sorts of the things the Fed is mind for ensuring that the economic growth seen in the third quarter will be sustainable. Also of interest is how Bernanke and the rest of the Federal Reserve members plan to withdraw from the stimulus.

Withdrawing from economic stimulus is an important consideration for many, since it will be a delicate maneuver. If the stimulus measures are in place for too long, we could end up with hyper inflation and a number of other distressing economic problems. On the other hand, if economic stimulus is withdrawn too soon or too quickly, the economic recovery could be in danger, and the chances of a double-dip recession increase. With employment still an issue, and the housing market still reliant on the first time home buyer tax credit, though, it is unlikely that an exit from the stimulus will begin until sometime next year.

Image source: Daylife

Post from: EveryJoe

Stocks Heading Higher Ahead of Fed

When the economy is good and the company is doing well, the head of the I.T. department wouldn’t have problems convincing the decision makers to approve of the budget requested. But during tough times, these proposals are usually shelved and the I.T. department are working against limited budget. When this happens, the IT head should find ways to motivate their people, remain productive and deliver results despite not opening their pockets.

The following items are things that the IT head can do to produce results:

1. Enhancement of applications – do you still remember the time when you were pressed for the deadline and developers were pushing codes to make it work regardless of standards, design etc. These items are called workarounds and when you don’t have a major release, work on these weak codes and improve on them.

2. Revisit standards – when your team is packed with deliverables and major releases, your team sometimes go into a repetitive process and standards are no longer visited or improved upon. Looking back at the standards you have and the things you can improve on it based on previous releases could do you well in the future.

3. Get those trainings – when I was not yet deployed to a project I attended all the trainings the company offered but when deployment came and major release is on its way, I sometimes find myself not able to attend training for the rest of the year. Use your time and plan on getting those trainings during downtime.

4. Network, network – Get your people to network around the company, create a team that would look into evaluating processes. During these time IT resources can move around the company networking to various business processes and see where improvements can be brought on.

5. Move around roles – since you are not likely to be packed on deliverables, moving roles around the IT resources would help build your business continuity plan as resources would be multi-skilled.

The items above are things that IT department usually neglect when budget is good and projects drain up the time and resources of everyone in the team. During downtime, a lot of things can be done to bring productivity and improve your team.

Image from here.

Post from: EveryJoe

5 Things IT department can do During Tough Times

Money Motherboard graphic

My thoughts were just wondering if the features and benefits of the World Wide Web and Internet provide a little bit more of an opportunity for cushion on the ups and downs of someone’s personal and professional finances. Is the ability for a business of any size to really market itself to any other business regardless of size a way to avoid your market dwindling away to nothing. As for individuals, you’ve got the opportunity to start your own business, or to simply network and market yourself for other potential jobs that may be available to you.

What are your thoughts? Is technology a cushion in tough economic times? Maybe you think technology (or too much of it) could be a part of the cause of all these problems. After all, we didn’t have all these gadgets, gizmos and applications back in the good ‘ol days. Is that what made them so good in the first place? Life was so much simpler then right?

Post from: EveryJoe

Recession in the Internet Age

As the theory goes, much of the money spent on most non-perishable items ends up somewhere else, as I covered in a different blog. At least beer money, when spent on American brews, should stay here. Not sure that works out as planned when the beer contains Hallertau, Tettnang or Saaz hops, or malt from the UK, but then again it was said more in jest than anything else.

As it happens, I’ve been going through a bit of an import phase myself, but it’s a good reminder to buy local, particularly given the great brews we have in the area.

Support your local brew, and if it’s a good one let us know about it as well!

Post from: EveryJoe

Buy American, buy beer