“The 700 MHz auction ended yesterday, and the $19.59 billion going to the Treasury looks like a lot until you realize the government’s total budget is $2.9 trillion. But now the waiting (and speculating) can begin.”

Who paid the $4.75 billion for the C block???

Post from: EveryJoe

The Wireless Spectrum Auction Has Ended

Michal Lev-Ram tells us, on a topic that seemingly most have forgotten about;

Wireless spectrum auction winding down

“The federal government’s high-profile wireless spectrum auction will likely end in the next few days. That means we could soon find out who won the last major chunks of spectrum available in the United States, which have attracted nearly $20 billion in bids.”

Unfortunately it appears that the “D” block – the portion saved for a public safety network, did not raise a bid sufficient to meet the FCC’s minimum. It is possible that that fact could affect the announcement of the auction winners for the other blocks but common sense says that the FCC will set it aside to collect the money for the balance of the auction.

These are the most current, cumulative, results;

Click through the graphic and you can scan the entire results page. (Search Auction #73)

Post from: EveryJoe

Spectrum Auction Coming To A Close?

“After four more rounds of bidding today (Wednesday), the total bids reached $11.6 billion. That’s good news but for one little detail. Included in that total is $4.3 billion for a block of frequencies called the C block. This represents the single most attractive license in the auction because it would allow for nationwide service. The government has set a reserve price of $4.6 billion for those frequencies. If the bidding doesn’t hit that level, they won’t be sold and the auction will likely be seen as a failure.”

Saul offers us a couple of additional auction facts and then begins to speculate;

“Since the auction began last week, the price of the C block has been increasing steadily. But after it hit $4.3 billion this morning, there were no more bids in the other three auctions of the day. That raises the possibility that no one really wants to pay the $4.6 billion price tag. Google has said that it would bid $4.6 billion for the spectrum, so if it decided to stop at $4.3 billion, it would have a fair bit of political heat to take.”

I think we all know that we don’t know who is bidding and how much. Saul does mention that, “in general” whoever is bidding is, more or less, required to continue bidding except that high bidders don’t have to increase their bid and a bidder has three waivers with which to not bid in a specific round.

I’ll imagine that by following the auction you can determine that there have been no more than one bid on the “C” block each day. After further speculation, Saul finally proposes;

“If the bid for the C block doesn’t rise Thursday morning, that will mean that there is only one company left in that part of the auction. Under the rules, then, that company could wait until just before the auction ends — which well could be weeks from now —before bidding the $4.6 billion to win. There is a modest incentive to do this. The increment of the next bid declines as the auction progresses. Now, the next bid in the C block must be at least $4.7 billion, so a frugal company might save $100 million by waiting to cross the finish line.

If the $4.6 billion level isn’t reached, the F.C.C. will likely remove the open-access rules Google requested and hold a second auction for the C-block frequencies.”

My take is, that Google said they’d meet the reserve and they will. If by meeting it, they win, all the better!

Update: This will end a bit of Saul’s speculation – Spectrum bid triggers open access rule – “A bid on the largest portion of public wireless airwaves, now being auctioned by the federal government, reached $4.7 billion on Thursday, triggering a provision to allow any device or software to work on that spectrum.”

Post from: EveryJoe

Some Spectrum Auction Speculation

Google CEO Predicts Mobile Ad ‘Revolution’

DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) – The arrival of a truly mobile Web, offering a new generation of location-based advertising, is set to unleash a “huge revolution,” Google Inc Chief Executive Eric Schmidt said on Friday.

“It’s the recreation of the Internet, it’s the recreation of the PC (personal computer) story and it is before us — and it is very likely it will happen in the next year,” he told a panel at the World Economic Forum.

Really? It will happen in the next year?

“Current estimates for mobile advertising are cautious, with consultancy Forrester predicting revenues of under $1 billion by 2012.

But Schmidt said this figure was too low and failed to take into account the fact the mobile Web was reaching a tipping point.”

Even I think I’ve seen higher estimates recently but it feels like Eric may know something? It’s not clear who says;

“Google aims to be a prime mover by bidding for coveted airwaves to launch an open U.S. wireless network, pitting it against established telecommunications players. The move will take the Silicon Valley-based company well beyond its core Web search and online advertising franchises.”

But the following quote offers us even more from Eric…

“Some analysts are worried at the high costs involved but Schmidt said he was confident location-based advertising — which could, for example, direct hungry travelers to nearby restaurants — would be ‘a very, very good business.’”

What do you think?

Post from: EveryJoe

Is Google Bidding? Think About It…

“Bidding topped $3.7 billion on the second day of the Federal Communications Commission’s auction of government-owned airwaves, but there were no new suitors Friday for a closely watched block of spectrum to be shared with public safety agencies.

The $3.7 billion, up from $2.78 billion on Thursday, represented the highest bids received for five separate blocks of spectrum in the auction, which is eventually expected to net the federal government at least $10 billion.”

Post from: EveryJoe

If You’re Following The Auction – Day Two

700MHz Auction Pulls In $2.8B Worth of Initial Bids

“The FCC kicked off its highly anticipated spectrum auction Thursday with two rounds that brought in $2.8 billion worth of bids by day’s end. Stakeholders are bidding on a valuable swath of spectrum that will become available once television broadcasters shift from analog to digital signals in early 2009.

One of the largest bids was close to $1 billion, and that came from a set of eight bidders who wanted a group of licenses in all 50 states. Anyone looking to trump that bid during the remaining three bidding rounds on Friday must put down at least $1.4 billion.”

Post from: EveryJoe

If You’re Following The Auction

“And the licenses are on the auction block just as it is becoming obvious to industry players and investors that wireless broadband is rapidly becoming the next big thing, the mobile Internet.

The latest government report indicates that in 2006, mobile wireless high-speed subscribers grew nationwide by more than 600 percent, and that during the last half of the year, those subscribers made up nearly two-thirds of the total growth in all high-speed lines.”

You can follow the auctions’ results here. [link edited but you can still use the old link I had here - the auction is #73]

I share this opinion – “Google is run by idealists who want to change the world and have the money to undertake grand projects” which I’ll leave right there…

Make note: “The 700 MHz band could beam high-speed Internet signals to every park bench, schoolroom, workplace and home in America.”

Post from: EveryJoe

As Coveted As Oil Reserves

If we see it, so can they!

Google appears ready and willing (I’m all in favor of) to take on the “Big Boys.” Personally, I have another way of perceiving this than Om does. I do not see Google “desperate to extend its reach to the wireless domain.” (Om put together a very nice hypothetical about Google buying Sprint, certainly worth a read.)

Google did their due diligence when they announced they’d be a player in the spectrum auction. And that is what I expect they’ll do. But I have no doubt that AT&T is watching and has their own plans in order for a counter attack. They certainly aren’t going to simply allow Google to move in on their territory. After all, it’s “their pipes!”

Which, no doubt, is why Google wants to expand their assets. To avoid losing them. Consider that, if net neutrality fails to materialize, Googs could be positioned to send untold billions of dollars AT&T’s way for the extra last mile expenses they’d be faced with.

It isn’t rocket science and AT&T knows it.

Post from: EveryJoe

If Google Buys Sprint

*****From The San Francisco Chronicle June 2006*****

“AT&T Rewrites Rules: Your data isn’t yours”

“AT&T has issued an updated privacy policy that takes effect Friday [June 23, 2006]. The changes are significant because they appear to give the telecom giant more latitude when it comes to sharing customers’ personal data with government officials. The new policy says that AT&T — not customers — owns customers’ confidential info and can use it “to protect its legitimate business interests, safeguard others, or respond to legal process.”

“AT&T is also believed to have participated in President Bush’s acknowledged domestic spying program, in which the NSA was given warrantless access to U.S. citizens’ phone calls.”

This quote also squeezed into this article…

“AT&T’s new and former privacy policies both state that ‘conducting business ethically and ensuring privacy is critical to maintaining the public’s trust and achieving success in a dynamic and competitive business climate.’

Both also state that ‘privacy responsibility’ extends ‘to the privacy of conversations and to the flow of information in data form.’ As such, both say that ‘the trust of our customers necessitates vigilant, responsible privacy protections.’

David Lazarus – San Francisco Chronicle

*****From BusinessWeek, November 2005*****

“At SBC It’s All About Scale and Scope”

[Former] CEO Edward Whitacre talks about the AT&T Wireless acquisition and how he’s moving to keep abreast of cable competitors

Q. – How concerned are you about Internet upstarts like Google, MSN, Vonage, and others?

A – “How do you think they’re going to get to customers? Through a broadband pipe. Cable companies have them. We have them. Now what they would like to do is use my pipes free, but I ain’t going to let them do that because we have spent this capital and we have to have a return on it. So there’s going to have to be some mechanism for these people who use these pipes to pay for the portion they’re using. Why should they be allowed to use my pipes?

The Internet can’t be free in that sense, because we and the cable companies have made an investment and for a Google or Yahoo! or Vonage or anybody to expect to use these pipes [for] free is nuts!”

Lest we all forget!!! The Damn Pipes Are Already Paid For!

To the tune of $200 BILLION!

****************************************

Richard Whitt has posted a very informative follow-up on the Google Public Policy Blog: “Restoring competitive balance to the upcoming spectrum auction”

Richard is a “Washington Telecom and Media Counsel.” He mentions this, after giving us an extremely informative look at this auction process Google is about to take part in;

“That is why Google has indicated that it is willing to spend a minimum of $4.6 billion in the auction, which is the FCC’s reserve price for the particular spectrum block in question. At the same time, incumbents are unable to leverage anti-competitive blocking in this scenario. Regardless of who wins the bidding, however, the end result is an auction that yields a fair market price, with the added bonus of a new broadband network that is open to all comers. The American people get full value for their spectrum, plus open broadband platforms — and even the possibility of a real third pipe competitor. Not a bad deal overall.

If the FCC ultimately decides not to adopt open platforms conditions that “un-skew” the 700 MHz auction, we believe it is unlikely that robust new broadband competition will emerge. In that case, our country would have lost a golden opportunity. Nonetheless, we remain optimistic that the FCC will stand up for its stated public policy goals, and pave the way for a much brighter broadband future for all Americans.”

Post from: EveryJoe

It Wasn’t That Long Ago