Lexington Stakes Analysis
April 17, 2009 by Jarrod Horak
Filed under Handicapping, Horses, Kentucky Derby
The key to making money in Saturday’s Lexington (G2) at Keeneland is trying to beat underlaid fav Square Eddie (9-5).
The Doug O’Neill trainee is coming off a layoff/injury and could be short on conditioning in first start in 91 days.
Omniscient (6-1) looked good in two straight route wins at Fair Grounds for Albarado/Asmussen, and the versatile son of Pulpit sports a local bullet for this.
Brave Victory (8-1) was compromised by race shape/track profile at the Gulf last time. Johnny V hops aboard the Nick Zito runner.
Masala (6-1) adds blinkers for Todd Pletcher. He ran into probable Derby fav I Want Revenge in stakes bow last time, and he meets no such rival today.
Conservative (15-1) has won two straight and is bred to be any kind. He will be finishing at a price.
The Plays:
Omniscient to win
Trifecta box Omniscient, Brave Victory, Masala, Conservative
In Friday’s Kentucky Derby news, Quality Road worked a bullet six furlongs in 1:12.03 at Belmont Park. The Florida Derby hero seems to be over his quarter crack problem and looms a prominent throughout threat on the first Saturday in May.
Regal Ransom , Desert Party, and Musket Man are scheduled to work at Churchill Downs on Saturday. Papa Clem will work seven panels on Sunday.
Flying Private has arrived in Louisville, and the Wayne Lukas runner will work early next week.
Charitable Man will pass on the Derby. The lightly raced Kiaran McLaughlin trainee desperately needed the Blue Grass and could make some noise later this year.
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