Louisiana Downs analysis – Friday, October 17, 2008

Louisiana Downs analysis – Friday, October 17, 2008

by Jarrod Horak (Harrah’s Louisiana Downs Track Handicapper/TV Host)

Overall Top 3 selections performance (June 26th thru Oct. 16th)

634 races (125 top pick wins, 167 second pick wins, 99 third pick wins)

THURSDAY RECAP

The track was sloppy/muddy and we were off the turf on Thursday. Main track played fair.

Jose Riquelme/Jorge Lara teamed up for two wins on the card.

No winners in the Pick 6, and the carryover pool stands at $2,688. The weather has cleared up for Friday with sunny skies and temps in the low 70’s. We are looking at a drying out fast track, and we will be off the turf. You can get Friday’s changes here.

LAD 1 (Clm-15/3L, 3up, 7f) #7 CARSON THE GREAT (2-1) finished 3rd, beaten a length, in his first try at this level over a speed friendly oval on the Super Derby undercard last time. He won by 5.5 lengths at this distance on Aug. 30th, and note that today’s rider Lonnie Meche was aboard for both career wins. Wes Hawley 27% at the current meet. #3 Wadi Suki (5-2) rallied to finish a head behind my top on Sept. 20th. He won a 2L race at this distance in June, but he has failed in 5 3L spots since, including 4 losing efforts as the fav. PVal hops aboard Joe Duhon’s consistent, versatile colt. #4 Buck’s Bill (15-1) finished 4th behind Wadi Suki in that productive 7f event on June 1st. He reached the winning par for this in 2L wire job route on Sept 5th, and trainer Connie Daniels is 2-10 turf/dirt.

LAD 2 (Mcl-5k, 3-4-5yo f&m, 6f) #2 FRANCES’ ROYALTY (5-2) drops all the way down to the bottom maiden claiming level for Robert Husak, who is a profitable 3-9 with this type of layoff runner. She finished 3rd in a couple of Evangeline MSW races in July. #5 Miss Brenda (5-1) drops to the $5k level for the first time after dueling and weakening as the fav in a wet dast extended sprint on Sept. 12th. PVal sticks wit the 3rd off a layoff contender. #12 Shecando (9-2) has failed to pan-out since the $30k claim at Keeneland last year. She drops from a $10k race 3rd off a layoff, and she will never find an easier wake-up spot.

LAD 3 (Clm-7.5k, 3up, 5f) #3 MY WIRE (5-1) was an above par off a layoff winner for his new trainer Jorge Lara at 5.5f on Oct. 4th. Barn $$ rider Lonnie Meche hops aboard as Torres has left for Hawthorne. Dangerous if able to run two alike. #11 Black Hills Bandit (7-2) has been throwing in the towel in turf sprints recently. 4-time main track winner owns fine speed and retains PVal. Barn 0-14 turf/dirt. #8 Shawklit Royale (3-1) has been part of the exacta in 3 straight and 6 of last 7. He promptly won for $10k in the slop following the $5k Jerry Cart claim, and the stalking type drops a peg for this.

LAD 4 (Mcl-30k, LA-bred 2yo, 6f) #12 TOPVENTURE’S DREAM (8-1) improved 2nd time out off a layoff on Sept. 14th, and show finisher Lucky Seventeen came back to win next start. Jerry Cart is 24% 2nd off a layoff and 33% 1st blinkers. #3 Dessy (7-2) finished 3.5 lengths in front of my 2nd choice last time, and that was a much improved effort in first start for a tag. Al Stall Jr. 31% with juveniles, and L.Meche 1-12 with this barn. #7 Ashar Man (3-1) sports a local gate bullet for trainer George Northrop Jr., who is 3-10 with debut maiden claimers. #4 Cozyfromthegitgo (9-2) debuts for Asmussen, and he’s 30% with debut maiden claimers (50 race sample).

LAD 5 (Clm-5k, LA-bred f&m 3up, 7f) #9 ZARPEN (5-1) drops and switches surfaces 2nd off a layoff for leading trainer Jorge Lara, who saddled two winners here yesterday. Barn is 23% route/sprint and 31% turf/dirt. #8 Our Angel Hour (6-1) finished 2nd for $10k on Oct. 3rd, and she is back in a preferred $5k spot this afternoon. She has been part of exacta in 4 straight and 5 of last 6 starts here. A stalk and pounce trip is anticipated. #1 Zarbalina (3-1) has claiming price slashed in half, and she did win at this course, distance, and level on July 19th. 6-time local winner owns a trio of victories at 7f.

LAD 6 (Mcl-5k, 3-4-5yo f&m, 6f) #8 DIXIELAND BREEZE (10-1) could be live right out of the box for the 25% Cody Meche/Brian House team. Barn is an impressive 5-9 FTS and 4-7 with debut maiden claimers. Her drill on Aug. 24th stands out. #5 Pickatunnel (4-1) was an even 5th for $10k last time. She was a close 3rd in her lone try at this level on Sept. 5th, and place finisher Sunlitsideup came back to win next start. Off the pace player for the productive Dugas/Hukill team. #3 Walkandwork (7-2) was 2nd behind runaway chalk Golden Gayle off a layoff last time. She has been part of trifecta in 4 of 5 local starts.

LAD 7 (Clm-15/3L, f&m 3up, 1mile-70yds) #7 NO TEARS IN HEAVEN has been turfing recently with no wins in 7 starts, so she will not mind that this race has been moved to the main. She has won twice on fast dirt, and her early/pressing speed should serve her well in this spot. #11 Windy’s Blazer was necked on the turf off a layoff last time. She owns a nice main track record (8-2-2-1), and Leblanc got to know her last time. She owns fine early/pressing versatility. #2 Niner’s Star is 1-22 but has been 2nd, 4th, 2nd and 3rd in her last four, so definitely include underneath in exotics.

LAD 8 (MSW, LA-bred 2yo fil, 7f) #10 ROSEANNE STRAND (4-1) debuts for Brian House, and he’s 5-9 with FTS. PVal is 2-4 with this outfit, and she shows a best of 26 local gate bullet for this. #5 O Night Divine (5-1) threw down a pair of strong local bullets in September. Tim Ice is 0-6 FTS and 0-8 with juveniles. #4 Rocket Reece (7-2) showed marked morning improvement in her Oct. 10th bullet. D.Meche/Heitzmann 27% together, and barn is 0-7 FTS.

LAD 9 (Alw-2L, LA-bred 3up, 6.5f) #3 LAWTON CIRCLE (6-1) could be all set for a top as he cuts back in distance 2nd race off the shelf, and note that 23% local trainer William Deakins is 2-3 with 2nd off a layoff runners. He opened up a nice lead around two turns last time, and he missed 2nd by a head and a nose. Winning pilot Jacinto strings along. #12 Pure Carbon (6-1) has shown marked improvement in last pair, a Mcl-5k win and a close 3rd in a starter allowance event, both at this distance. An outside stalk and pounce trip is projected. #8 Spiritinthemist (20-1) did not handle the slop in her 1st start versus winners on Sept. 12th. She looked good breaking her maiden on Aug. 24th, and she could rebound at a price 3rd race off a layoff.

LAD 10 (MSW, LA-bred 3-4-5yo, 8.5f) #6 ELLE RAY DEW was briefly involved from an outer post in 6.5f bow at less than 9-1. He sports a good looking local 5f bullet on Oct. 11th, and Wes Hawley is 24% with 2nd timers. Barn $$ rider Lonnie Meche strings along, and better is certainly possible. #9 Run Rudy Run finished 2nd in all three of his turf starts, and we will see how he handles the main today. Pat Mouton is 21% 2nd off a layoff, and EJ Perrodin got to know him last time. #11 Sovereign Key owns a rising numbers pattern, and he adds blinkers and returns to the state bred ranks today. He gets in lighter with hustling apprentice Dugas and looms a pace factor at the very least.