Louisiana Downs analysis – Saturday, October 18, 2008

Louisiana Downs analysis – Saturday, October 18, 2008

by Jarrod Horak (Harrah’s Louisiana Downs Track Handicapper/TV Host)

FRIDAY RECAP

My 5-1 top Dixieland Breeze won the 6th for trainer Brian House, who ran his record to 6-10 with FTS and 5-8 with debut maiden claimers. Cody Meche rode. Mr. House also ran FTS Roseanne Strand in the MSW 8th race, but that one ran out of gas in the lane.

Saturday is closing day of the 2008 Louisiana Downs meet. I took over as Track Handicapper/TV Host on June 26th, and it was a great experience. I met many wonderful people and would like to thank everyone for helping make my first year a successful one!

An $80 horse just won the 9th, so we figure to have a Pick 6 carryover in the neighborhood of $3k heading into closing day.

LAD 1 ($100k Louisiana Stallion, 2yo fil, 7f) #7 GOLDEN LADY LEE (3-1) showed improved morning activity in a sharp local 5f breezing bullet on Oct. 10th. ½ sister to multiple sprint winner Lyra Lee is likely well-meant in her bow. L.Meche/Heitzmann 22% together here, and trainer struck with a 2yo filly FTS yesterday (Rocket Reece), and this one shared the Oct. 10th bullet with yesterday’s winning stablemate…interesting! #5 Wanna Cuddle (2-1) ran into a runaway winner as the fav at this course/distance last time. Leading rider Simington hops aboard, and he’s 1-3 with this barn here. Her BSF’s are on the rise, and she just missed by a head on Aug. 16th. #4 Hazel Grove (5-2) beat Wanna Cuddle by 2.25 lengths from post 10 at 7f last time. She makes her 3rd career start and 2nd try on the main, and note that barn is 0-21 with juveniles.

LAD 2 (Mcl-5k, 3-4-5yo, 8.5f) #10 WINE JUDGE (4-1) removed the hood and earned best last race BSF in decent show finish from an outer post at 7f last time. He stretches back out 3rd race off a layoff and is clearly on the right path for the 26% Lozada/James Counts team. #1 Longshot Legacy (6-5) rallied to finish 4th in his Mcl-25k bow at FG in December, and he didn’t race again until a 7th place finish here on Oct. 2nd. Wes Hawley, 27% at the current meet, adds blinkers and drops from the $15k ranks 2nd off a layoff, and the lightly raced sort will never find an easier spot to succeed. #6 Dream Nightly (6-1) has finished 2nd and 3rd in a pair of $5k state bred starts recently. He faces open company today, and anything approaching his last two should be enough for a Top 3 placing.

LAD 3 ($100k Louisiana Stallion, 2yo, 7f) #1 STORMY M.T.L. (6-1) ducked in at the start in his local bow as the less than 2-1 fav on Oct. 5th. George Northrop Jr. is 4-8 first blinkers, and this one sports a solid local 3f blowout from the gate for this. Improvement expected. #2 Foreign Production (3-1) earned a quality 77 BSF in a much improved effort 2nd time out at 6.5f here, and note that he added blinkers for that race. #8 Sure Fire Runner (4-1) was a debut winner of the same race my top exits, and he got the job done despite racing a bit greenly and failing to change leads. He will not go off at 11-1 this time for EJ Perrodin/Pat Mouton.

LAD 4 (MSW, 3-4-5yo f&m, 8T) #12 VICTORY BRIDGE (6-1) showed marked improvement in a clear place finish when switched to the turf off a March-Oct. layoff here last time. James Hodges is a profitable 25% 2nd off a layoff, and top notch local turf rider Donnie Meche strings along. #4 Galfriend (4-1) was nabbed out of her last by 20% claiming artist Cody Autrey. She has finished 2nd in a pair of MSW turf starts and will be rallying under Curt Bourque. #5 Thundering Gallop (3-1) has finished 3rd in five straight races ranging from 5f on the turf to a mile and seventy yards on the main track. She owns the best last race BSF and earned an above par fig at this course/distance on June 8th.

LAD 5 (Clm-5k, LA-bred 3up, 7f) #2 LIKE A MAGIC FLUTE (7-2) was last seen finishing 3rd in a productive race on Aug. 31st. Place finisher Hello Ladies has come back to win a pair of starter allowance races since, and winner Jack’s Lil Bit was 3rd in a starter allowance event in his next start. He split Fairmont and Semoran’s Decision on July 18th, and both of those horses won races here this week. #8 Bide (3-1) won two straight 7f races at Evangeline in July, and he was 7th for $10k at that same venue off the Keith Bourgeois claim when last seen on Aug. 21st. Barn is 25% with this type of layoff runner, and he fits at this level if able to regain to his sharp summer form. #5 About Face Ace (4-1) returns to his claimed level for leading trainer Jorge Lara. He was a decent 5th off a layoff I that starter allowance ranks last time, and barn $$ rider Lonnie Meche hops aboard the early/pressing type.

LAD 6 (Mcl-15k, 3-4-5yo, 7f) #3 LES BOLD (7-2) broke last at 9-2 in his local bow, and he rallied to finish a more than respectable 4th that day. He sports a good looking gate work since, and he could go much better this time around with a clean beginning. If he has an early ability, expect his aggressive new pilot Carlos Gonzalez to coax it out of him. #8 I’m A Country Boy (5-2) runs well fresh, and trainer Jerry Hardin is a profitable 14% with this type of returnee. He finished 2nd off a layoff in lone try at this distance, and leading rider Simington strings along. #11 Dodaboom (6-1) broke 9th from rail post in his MSW bow, and he basically ran in place near the back of the pack. Place finisher All Star Chris cvame back to romp in his next MSW start. He drops into a maiden claimer, and Leblanc/Irwin are 28% together here.

LAD 7 (Str-Alw, 3up, 7.5T) #10 MAJOR JEFF (12-1) was my top versus similar last time, and he finished a close 7th at 7-2 in that competitive heat. He sports a pair of works since and can rebound for fine turf connections (D.Meche/M.Burgess). #5 Jasons Jaxon (12-1) was a decent 5th from post 11 as part of a multiple horse photo in same race my top exits. He smartly won here on Aug. 30th, and he could bounce back in a better post 3rd race of the shelf. Lonnie Meche had a few options in here (Hurricane Party, Waystogeaux), but he ends up on #1 Bamboo Gap (3-1). My 3rd choice exits a nice flat mile turf win here. Early/pressing sort has been an all or nothing type on the turf

LAD 8 (MSW, 2yo, 1mile-70yds) #5 SOFT SHOE (5-1) finished an even 4th in his 7.5f turf bow at 2-1. Bob Young 19% with 2nd timers, and he owns the top distance Tomlinson (398) in the field. Barn $$ rider Verenzuela sticks. #12 Majestic Gentleman (4-1) was 3rd, 3-lengths in front of my top in that aforementioned turf race. He also has a decent Tomlinson distance number of 381, and trainer Eldon Hall has enjoyed a rock solid meet. #10 Face Off (6-1) was an even 3rd at 6f here last time, and he might flash speed as he stretches out in distance. Jacinto/Hukill are 23% together.

LAD 9 (Alw-32k, LA-bred 3up, 7f) #3 SPRITELY STAR (9-2) has earned quality speed ratings without winning his last pair, and he only missed by a 1/2 length to the hard hitting Roll On Roll On at this distance on Sept. 6th. He projects a great stalking trip under his fav pilot Donnie Meche. #6 Mr. Barracuda (3-1) has been part of the exacta in 8 straight races for Keith Bourgeois. Gerard Melancon is 30% overall with this barn, and he rode the early/pressing sort to a 2nd place finish on July 11th. #1 Meteor Impact (7-2) has not been seen since Dec. ’07, but the 8yo gelding has fired fresh before. His 2006 triple digit BSF’s lay over these, but he cannot be expected to duplicate that form off the bench. He will get pace to chase and has been part of trifecta in 6 of 7 local starts.

LAD 10 ($50k Gate Dancer, 2yo, 7f) #6 MILWAUKEE MIRACLE (5-1) finished a solid 3rd in his debut, and the two experienced rivals (Sweet Sixieland, Leestown Gift) that finished in front of him are both in this race as well. He looked very good in his 3 length maiden win as the fav on Sept. 5th, and his three works since include a pair at this distance. #9 Bertsgoldenmissile (9-5) owns a favorable post for his early/pressing running style. City Style, the place finisher from his last, came back to win a grass stakes race on the Super Derby undercard. Consistent colt owns the best last race speed rating and has the 28% L.Meche/J.Lara team in his corner. #4 Leestown Gift (9-2) is the only entrant with a win at 7f, and he did it nicely to graduate by 5.5 last time.

LAD 11 (MSW, LA-bred 2yo, 7f) #12 ADMIRALS MOUNTAIN (8-1) was a solid 3rd of 11 in his 5.5f Evangeline open MSW bow on July 16th, and winner Tiger Shark came back to win his next start. Kent Badeaux is 25% with this type of layoff runner, and he shows up in the state bred ranks 2nd time out. #1 Smothcideup (5-2) has faced some decent runners, including a few fro the $50k Gate Dancer (Leestown Gift, Milwaukee Miracle). His BSF’s are on the upswing, and he earned his best career fig at this distance last time. #10 Wiremealilcheck (6-1) keeps landing outer post positions. He dueled and finished 4th, 5.5 lengths behind my 2nd choice in his career bow here, than earned an improved speed rating while 4-wide in his 2nd career start on Oct. 3rd.