Louisiana Downs analysis – Saturday, October 4, 2008

Louisiana Downs analysis – Saturday, October 4, 2008

by Jarrod Horak (Harrah’s Louisiana Downs Track Handicapper/TV Host)

Burke (race 2) was a country mile behind the field throughout, and he rallied boldly in the lane to just miss the place. He easily galloped out past winner Heather’s Fantasy.

PVal failed to win his 4,000th race, and he is named to ride six horses on Saturday.

John Jacinto and Jose Riquelme both booted home a pair. Donnie Meche/Steve Asmussen teamed up for two wins on the Friday card.

LAD 1 (Clm-5k, 3up, 5.5f) #2 WE SANG DIXIE (2-1) failed to get involved in a $10k turf sprint last time, and Bret Calhoun is 31% turf/dirt. He pulled off a sharp $5k wire job at this course/distance under today’s pilot L.Meche on Aug. 29th, and he might not look back in this spot. #4 Pistol Avenue (5-2) was a bit over his head in a starter allowance affair last time. Two of his 3 wins this year were at this $5k level, and his last local start at this distance resulted in a $7.5k victory. #1 Lukey’s Legacy (5-1) has his claimed price cut in half, and he is an off the pace threat if able to return to sharp June-July form here.

LAD 2 (Clm-10/2L, LA-bred f&m 3up, 1mile-70yds) #8 LIL MISS PYNES (7-2) is clearly on the upswing and exits best last race BSF in 1st start versus winners, a wide place finish from an outer post at 6f over good footing. Dugas/Shumake are 3-10 together, and barn is a profitable 19% sprint/route. #4 Twice Twelve (9-2) is tagged for the first time following a 7f drubbing from post 11 in Aug. 29th Evangeline comeback. Her lone win was a romping wire job at a flat mile last year, and trainer Sam Breaux is clicking at a 22% rate at the current meet. #12 Niner’s Star (6-1) was an even 4th in the same race my top exits. She attracts leading rider Simington and projects a decent stalking trip on the stretchout.

LAD 3 (Mcl-5k, 3-4-5yo, 7f) #1 BRED AS A GEM (6-1) earned improved pace figs in a $7.5k 7f event at Evangeline last time. He stalked in 4th and had the midstretch lead before weakening to 5th of 14 in the late stages. D.Meche/F.Melancon Jr. are 2-9 together at the current stand, and a bit more improvement can get the job done at this bottom rung. #4 Margarita City (9-5) earned a BSF good enough to win many of these $5k races in latest place finish, and that was a $10k event on Sept. 25th. Dugas/Hukill won 4 races together in Sept., and this one is an obvious early/pressing player, but he is 0-10 and has failed 3 times as the fav. #10 Snuck in Bayou (5-1) has run a few good races, including neck defeat in $10k bow and a $5k solid show finish in August. Simington strings along.

LAD 4 (Clm-5/2L, f&m 3up, 5.5f) #6 PINE DERBY (5-1) held on by a head as even money fav in $5k maiden breaker, and place finish Sunlitsideup came back to win next outing. He sports a best of 36 bullet for this, and trainer John Locke is 21% with horses attempting a repeat. Simington sticks with the stalk and pounce type. #9 Spainish Eyes (6-1) was nostrilized in fine stalk and pounce trip in a 4.5f 2L event at Evangeline last time. D.Meche/S.Asmussen teamed up to win yesterday’s opener. #11 F Star (30-1) meets a field with plenty of pace, and her 22% trainer Michael Franklin is 20% with this type of layoff runner. She can rally for a share at nice odds.

LAD 5 (Mcl-20k, LA-bred 3-4-5yo f&m, 8T) #5 HONEST THIEF (5-1) is out of 12% turf sire Storm Day, and turf winning dam has thrown a couple of grass winners as well. Profitable turf trainer Mike Burgess has her now, and he’s 22% dirt/turf. Top notch local turf rider D.Meche climbs aboard. #4 Princess Tide (5-2) will never find an easier spot to graduate. 0-16 miss rallied to finish 2nd behind runaway winner Bride of the Bay in off the turf 7f event last time, and she finished a decent 3rd from post 10 in a turf route before that. The horses she has been facing in recent turf races are better than this group, including Madame Elle, Sefas Belle, and Awesome Amazon. PVal sticks with the Pam Simpson runner. #7 Stacey Lee (4-1) drops into a maiden claimer for the first time. She has finished 6th, 4th, and 3rd in her three turf tries. She puts the blinkers back on, and she set the pace and weakened to 4th versus better in her lone turf try with the hood. Leblanc is 2-10 with this barn.

LAD 6 (Clm-5/2L, 3up, 1mile-70yds) #3 FORCE COMMAND USMC (15-1) won at first asking in a local sprint, and he has hit the board in a couple of other starts, a sprint place finish at 34-1, and a route show finish at 50-1. Leblanc/WT Howard 22% together, and barn is 32% sprint/route. An improved off the pace effort 3rd start back is possible. #12 Came Low (5-2) dives in class and stretches back out in his first start since June. Robideaux is 20% with this type of returnee and 21% overall in route races. PVal hops aboard the early runner. #6 Only Man in Town (9-2) missed by a ½ length when last seen at this level on Aug. 14th. John Locke is 17% with this type of layoff runner, and I am expecting a decent stalking trip today.

LAD 7 (Clm-15/3L, f&m 3up, 5T) #7 JORGA’S SONG (6-1) flopped from post 10 in a flat mile turfer last time. She has claimed price cut in half, and Alfonso Balderas is 27% with turf sprinters. He is also a profitable 10% with the route/sprint move. #4 Tiger Timber (3-1) ran well in both of her Ellis Park turf sprints, and she gets leading rider Simington in her 1st start versus winners. #1 Smitty’s Shine (10-1) is 0-5 with one place finish on turf, but all of those were around two turns, including place finish at 7.5f here. She won a couple of dirt sprints here in July-Aug., and Morris Nicks is 30% in turf sprint races.

LAD 8 (MSW, 2yo fil, 6f) #6 ROLL PRESLEE ROLL (3-1) finished a solid 2nd of 12 in her course/distance bow at 14-1. New pilot Simington is 32% with Schultz here, and barn is a profitable 18% with 2nd timers. #12 Lil’ Hottie (4-1) was a clear 2nd at less than 2-1 in her 5f Evangeline bow on Aug. 14th. Sam Breaux is 16% with 2nd timers, and he is clicking at a 22% rate at the current meet. #11 Lauren P. (9-2) was well clear of the show in her 3-1 bow, and she was beaten by fellow firster Dyna’s Greeley (Cecil Borel). Asmussen 23% with 2nd timers.

LAD 9 (Clm-15k, 3up, 8.5T) #12 EXPLOIT EXPOSED (5-1) was my 7-1 top last time, but he couldn’t quite reel in fav Bamboo Gap. He needs to work out a stalking trip from outside post today, and I trust that top local turf rider Donnie Meche is up to the task. #5 Chuckie’s in Love (7-2) receives a rider upgrade to Simington 2nd off a layoff, and he was only a length behind my top choice on Sept. 19th. #7 Wild Dinner Party (5-1) is up from the $5k dirt route ranks. He is 1-1 over the local turf and might get brave if able to shake loose early. Torres/Sam David Jr. 30% together, and barn is 27% dirt/turf.

LAD 10 (OC-16/1x, 3up, 6f) #3 VOICE (8-1) earned an above par BSF in off the turf 7f maiden win here last time, and place finisher Shoppin Shirley came back to score. Well bred $525k Keeneland sales grad has fired two big shots with blinkers on, and he needs a contested pace between Ms. Officer Rocket, Velvet Angel, and Aggressive Gold. D.Meche/Al Stall Jr. 28% together. #7 Illuminique (7-2) earned best last race speed rating in 5.5 length romp at 7f, and he was re-claimed out of that heat by Jan Haynes/Jorge Lara, the leading owner and trainer at the current stand. Lonnie Meche is 28% with this outfit, and the stalking type could easily make it five straight local sprint tallies. #5 Agressive Gold (15-1) has been part of trifecta in all 10 career starts. Dugas/Hukill combo have been clicking the past month, and she looms a speed factor throughout.

LAD 11 (Mcl-20k, LA-bred 3-4-5yo f&m, 8T) #2 SEXY WALK (7-2) is on the improve for Morris Nicks. She was 9th in her ’07 turf route bow at 4-1. She returned with a pair of place finishes this year, including length defeat in off the turf 7f event last time. PVal strings along in her 3rd race off the shelf. #1 St. Tribute (2-1) has hit the board in last two turf tries, including best last race speed rating on July 27th. My top two have a common opponent in Galfriend. My top beat that one by 2 lengths on Aug. 23rd, while my 2nd choice split decisions with that rival on July 5th & 27th. #8 Autum’s Delight (8-1) tries a turf claimer for the first time as she returns to the Gilbert Ciavalgia barn. Trainer shows a nice profit dirt/turf and with this type of layoff runner.