Louisiana Downs analysis – Thursday, October 9, 2008

Louisiana Downs analysis – Thursday, October 9, 2008

by Jarrod Horak (Harrah’s Louisiana Downs Track Handicapper/TV Host)

Sunday (10-5-08) LA Downs Recap

Both surfaces played fair on Sunday, and note that there were no wire jobs on the main.

I had a nice $38.40 winner in the grassy 4th (Ante Go Go), and the angle was a sharp dirt horse with a fine turf pedigree.

Keith Bourgeois saddled a pair of turf winners. PVal was blanked once again, and he remains one win shy of 4,000 career wins. He is named to ride six horses on Thursday.

Donnie Meche, Lonnie Meche, and Jose Riquelme each booted home five winners last week. The resurgent Steve Asmussen saddled a trio of winners, and the aforementioned Donnie Meche rode all three. EJ Perrodin/Pat Mouton teamed up for three wins on the week as well. Leading trainer Jorge Lara found the winners’ circle four more times. Donnie Meche/Al Stall Jr. teamed up for a pair on Thursday.

We had six wire jobs on the turf last week, but the rails were down, and speed typically holds better under those circumstances. Leading rider Don Simington booted home a trio of turf winners last week, including a pair with trainer Jerry Hardin. Jose Riquelme rode two turf sprint winners. As noted earlier, trainer Keith Bourgeois saddled a pair of grass winners on Sunday.

LAD 1 (Clm-5/3L, f&m 3up, 6f) #7 MAGGIES A GOLD DIGGER (7-2) employed new rating tactics en route to a sharp three-length tally in the 2L ranks at this course/distance last time. Jacinto/Locke are 30% together here, and barn saddled a pair of winners here last week. #2 Jone’s Doll (2-1) drops, turns back, and switches surfaces following a troubled journey in a $30k turf sprint on Sept. 21st. She earned her diploma at this course/distance in June. D.Meche has booted the early/pressing type home twice. #10 Krisie Miss Whiz (5-2) weakened to 3rd after carving out the splits in an extended sprint last time. She was claimed out of that heat by Jim Gaston, and leading rider Don Simington hops aboard the wire job threat. #8 Prairie (5-2) woke up with a decent place finish at 7f last time, but note that she shows no wins in 2007 & 2008 and is probably best used underneath.

LAD 2 (OC-30/2x, f&m 3up, 8T) Turf rails at 20 feet this week. #6 MISS PATSY (5-2) is a sharp early/pressing sort exiting an off the turf wire job. She graduated at this course/distance in June, and she has fared well against some tough company since, including a place finish behind recent $50k Fiesta Mile winner Pretty Squall. She was a decent 3rd in last turf outing on Aug. 10th, and note that place finisher Rose Medallion won a 1x turf race here last Thursday. #2 Serrano (7-2) won both of her local turf sprint starts, and the promising three-year-old filly tries a route of ground today. She lands the cozy rail and retains top local turf rider Donnie Meche. She is bred to go at least this far and has the proper running style to succeed at a flat mile. #8 Cinnamon Strike (2-1) exits a fine place finish in a local 7.5f turfer off a layoff. L.Meche/Wes Hawley 31% together, and note that this one is entered for the $30k tag. She is 1-7 overall on grass, and note that both of her wins showing on the DRF past performance page were accomplished over a fast main track. Must overcome outside post.

LAD 3 (Mcl-5k, 3-4-5yo f&m, 5f) #6 LIVE LIFE OUTLOUD (2-1) raced wide in her MSW bow at the Spa, than came back and pressed the pace before giving way in a $25k maiden claiming dirt sprint at that same venue for Todd Pletcher. Larry Robideaux Jr. has her now, and he’s 21% with new additions to his barn and 44% with the blinkers off move. Check out that best of 41 local 4f bullet for this, and she could be the one to give PVal that elusive 4,000th win. #1 Lou Too (15-1) overcame a bad start to finish a decent 4th in $5k Evangeline bow. She stopped in a 7f MSW event last time. She drops back to her claimed level and attracts Simington. #3 U Dazzleum (9-2) owns early/pressing speed and has hit the board in 4 of 7 lifetime starts. She broke slow and failed to threaten when dropped to this level in lone start at Evangeline this year.

LAD 4 (Clm-10/3L, LA-bred f&m 3up, 8.5f) #4 EASYFARTHISLADY (9-2) exits a decent place finish behind a runaway winner in a local extended sprint. Both of her wins have come around two turns, including sharp 2L tally here off a layoff under today’s pilot C.Gonzalez. #7 Bad Beat (6-1) was a respectable 5th of 12 in Evangeline 6f prep off a layoff. Riquelme is riding well here, and the off the pace type rates a shot if the track continues to play fair. #1A Punish Work (2-1) has hit the board in four straight, and she has been on the wrong side of the photo in last pair. Note that she is 0-6 this year, 0-5 here, and 0-7 on fast dirt. Simington strings along, and he’s 0-8 with Joe Duhon. #1 Filly in Pink (2-1) exits a 5k/2L win at 7f, and she’ll be closing under PVal.

LAD 5 (Mcl-25k, 3-4-5yo f&m, 8T) #1 GI GI GAL (6-1) was 3-2 in her long ago dirt sprint bow, and she was off for more than 10 months after that disappointing 4th place effort. She was claimed out of her debut and returned in a local turf route, but she failed to threaten from post 12 that day. She lands the cozy rail and can go much better this time around. Note that T.Dupuis/M.Lovell teamed up to win turf race here last week with Dynamite Babe. #9 Crafty Chestnut (9-5) was wide in traffic when switched to turf 2nd time out. She had a speed/fade trip last time and can improve for profitable 25% layoff trainer Sam David Jr. New pilot Simington won three turf races here last week. #4 Holli’s Brickhouse (8-5) has hit the board in both of her local turf races, and she was 5.5 lengths clear of Crafty Chestnut when last seen in July. Barn 1-22 with this type of layoff runner. Late running threat.

LAD 6 (Clm-5/3L, 3up, 8.5f) #12 ISLE REPO IT (4-1) stretches back out and reunites with barn $$ rider Jacinto. There is not much pace in the paper race, and he might try to clear these from outside post. #5 Old Chunk of Coal (9-2) was a wide 3rd and earned an above par speed rating from post 10 in a local 6.5f sprint last time. He stretches back out in his 3rd race off a layoff for the productive Dugas/Hukill team. #7 Gorge (2-1) drops to his lowest level off a layoff. Billy Patin is 1-3 with new trainer James Fugate, and this one does own running style versatility.

LAD 7 (Mcl-15k, 2yo fil, 6.5f) #5 RARE ANGEL (15-1) drops from the state bred MSW ranks, and she did make a middle move in her Sept. 4th bow. Rosier/Tim Ice teamed up for a longshot maiden winner a couple of weeks ago (Amber Star), and this one removes the hood and could show more at this level. I picked this jockey/trainer combo in Sunday’s finale, and they finished a solid 3rd at 4-1 with Senor Romeo. #8 Katy Crypto (9-2) debuts for 30% local trainer Brian House, and he’s 4-8 with FTS and 3-6 with debut maiden claimers. Cody Meche 21% with this barn here. #6 Mione (3-1) makes her career debut for Bob Young, and he’s 18% with FTS. She’s been working here since April, and Jose Verenzuela is 20% with this outfit.

LAD 8 (Clm-15/2L, 3up, 8T) #9 CLEAN UP (2-1) Goes from Asmussen to Hudson and is tagged for the first time. Gets the leading rider, and note that he was a troubled 6th behind Super Derby also-ran Numismatist in his lone turf outing. #4 Nootka Sound (5-2) drops and returns to turf for the 28% Leblanc/.Irwin team. He figures to flash speed at the very least, but note that his lone win was over yielding ground at 5.5f. #13 Mister Jimmy (3-1) and/or #14 King Caden (7-2) deserve respect if able to draw in from AE list.

LAD 9 (OC-30/2x, LA-bred 3up, 6f) #3 CRAZYFROMTHEGITGO (10-1) receives a rider upgrade to Jacinto. Off the pace miss should get pace to chase and enters in decent form. Jerry Hardin saddled a pair of winners here last week. #6 Pure Bandit (7-2) won at Evangeline over wet fast ground when last seen in August. Pat Mouton is 20% with this type of layoff runner, and Kerwin Clark is 39% overall with this barn. She’s a 2-time local winner. #2 A Little Tipsy (3-1) has run into talented stakes performer Superior Storm in 3 of last 4 at Evangeline. Versatile runner retains Patin, who is 23% overall with this barn, and Victor Arceneaux is a profitable 23% route/sprint.

LAD 10 (OC-16/1x, 3up, 6f) #5 NEVILL’S MISTAKE (7-2) has improved with blinkers and PVal in his last pair, and he is the one to catch in this spot. Ray Sibille is a profitable 18% with this type of short layoff runner. #10 Danseur’s Gold (4-1) has been part of exacta in last four and has earned above par speed ratings in last pair. Mark Guidry has him now, and let’s see if he can run a quality race away from Evangeline. #2 Final War (5-1) was a prompt 6-5 winner for Tom Amoss in his long ago Mountaineer bow, and place finisher came back to score. James Hodges has him now, and he’s 25% with new additions to his barn. He sports a strong best of 70 gate bullet for this, and it is good to see him returning without a for sale sign.

LAD 11 (Mcl-5k, LA-bred 3-4-5yo, 6.5f) #5 NORTHERN FIRE (4-1) returns to the state bred ranks and drops back to the bottom level. He sports a pair of works since his last and tries to rebound following a pair of unplaced 7.5k races as the beaten fav. #2 Puzzle Passage (7-2) clearly hates an off track, so you can draw a line through his last. He was 2nd in three straight local fast track sprint starts before that. Simington/Hardin teamed up for two wins here last week. #12 Go Doeny Go (5-1) drops to his lowest level. He has experience with tough posts, as he set the pace and finished 3rd from post 13 in a $10k Evangeline event on July 12th.