Brass Hat, Court Vision, and Presious Passion headline the United Nations (G1) at Monmouth. The turf marathon is part of the Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In program, along with the Salvator Mile. Smooth Air is the one to beat in the latter race.

A competitive group is being assembled for the Grade 1 Suburban at Belmont Park. Recent overseas transplant Asiatic Boy is the marquee name.

On Sunday at Big Sandy, talented three-year-old sprinter Munnings faces quality older foes including Fabulous Strike in the Tom Fool (G2).

Three-year-olds take center stage in Belmont’s Dwyer (G2), an early prep for the Travers. Churchill invader Warrior’s Reward looks tough in this spot.

Speaking of Churchill, Thorn Song is the one to catch in Saturday’s Firecracker (G2). The flat mile specialist must hold off Wise River and Mr. Sidney.

Hollywood Park will play host to a pair of grade one events. First up on Saturday is the Grade 2 American Handicap, and Whatsthescript is out to defend his title.

Recent synthetic stakes winners Noble Court and Street Magician are expected for Sunday’s Triple Bend (G1), and an international cast is shaping up for the American Oaks (G1).

Image: Newscom

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

The Stronach Stables colt won the first three starts of his career, all around one-turn, including a razor sharp Withers (G3) tally at this distance with a 106 BSF.

The Ontario-bred was immediately prepared for the Queen’s Plate, but he failed to handle synthetic ground in his Woodbine prep, so those plans were scrapped. He ended up winning the $500k Prince of Wales at 9.5f in July, than it was back to the US to prepare for the Travers.

He ended up an even 4th in the ten furlong Mid-summer Derby, and he is not quite the same horse at or around the ten furlong distance. He is 2-2 at a flat mile and can nab his 2nd graded prize in this spot.

Pletcher also trains Z Humor, an uncoupled stablemate previously conditioned by Bill Mott. He has lost all six of his 2008 starts after a dead-heat score in the Delta Jackpot (G3) to end his juvenile season.

Tale of Ekati sports the look of a live wire at this shorter trip. He is 2-3 at Big Sandy, with his lone setback a stalk and fade in the Test of Champions. He has not been able to make a dent in graded routes, with the lone exception being his Wood Memorial (G2) win at Belmont. At 9-2, he looks like the value play.

Da’ Tara scratched out of Friday night’s Meadowlands Cup, and the surprise Belmont Stakes hero looms the controlling speed today. He returns to the scene of his greatest triumph but will not offer much value, especially with the coupling of Cool Coal Man. The latter, winner of the Fountain of Youth (G2) in February, owns fine tactical speed.

Visionaire has won two straight since donning the hood and cutting back in distance. He will be finishing under Alan Garcia, and note that the 5-2 shot is 2-2 at a flat mile.

You And I Forever was wide from post 13 in the PA Derby last time. He was steadily improving before that, and he ran subsequent Travers (G1) runner-up Mambo In Seattle to a neck at the Spa in July.

Top 3 selections: (1st) Tale of Ekati, (2nd) Harlem Rocker, (3rd) You And I Forever

Below is a YouTube replay of the 2008 Travers, featuring Harlem Rocker, Da’ Tara, Cool Coal Man, and Tale of Ekati.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Grade 1 Beldame – Nine furlongs

Lemon Drop Mom has improved significantly in her last four outings, and she owns strong wet track breeding. She owns fine early/pressing speed and appears poised for a graded breakthrough.

Ginger Punch has won four straight and won last year’s BC Distaff in the slop. She was only a nose in front of Lemon Drop Mom last time, and I have added a replay of the Personal Ensign from the Spa, courtesy of YouTube.

Grade 1 Flower Bowl – Ten furlongs (Turf)

Mauralakana has won four straight and did win a grade three on yielding ground.

Communique was 2nd to Mauralakana on firm ground in the Beverly D, and she was a smart soft turf winner before that. She’s clearly on the upswing.

Dynaforce handled soft turf overseas, but note that she is 0-3 since arriving in the US, and she was very disappointing last time.

Grade 1 Vosburgh – Six furlongs

Fabulous Strike owns a 119 wet track BSF, and he is freakishly fast.

Lucky Island lost the Forego at the start, and he showed something with a nice move into the turn. He won four straight before that, including Tom Fool in the mud.

Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic – Twelve furlongs (turf)

Strike A Deal has fired four times on yielding ground, and he has come close numerous times in the graded ranks.

Proudinsky gave Big Brown fits two weeks ago. He moves up with some give in the ground. Appears best at 9f and wheels back quickly.

Grand Couturier seems better on firm ground.

Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup – Ten furlongs

I posted a blog on this race Thursday night…Curlin takes on 8 rivals and the elements in Gold Cup.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Curlin has not tasted defeat on the main track since a show finish in the 2007 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park. He has won six main track races since, including 5 grade one races, with his lone defeat this year a place finish in the grassy Man O’War at 11 furlongs. His best career BSF was a 119 in the 2007 BC Classic in the slop.

The potential wet footing is not as much of a concern as the 14 seconds it took Curlin to finish the Woodward Stakes at the Spa on August 30th. He lost on the turf before that, so there is a small opening for an upset, but ten furlongs is clearly his best distance.

Robby Albarado has his usual seat aboard the Steve Asmussen trainee, and a big effort could lead to a much anticipated showdown with Big Brown in the synthetic Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita on October 25th.

Wanderin Boy is the Nick Zito speed threat. His Da’ Tara wired the Belmont Stakes, and Coal Play almost stole the Haskell from Big Brown. This seven-year-old warrior likes Big Sandy and handles wet footing. He was less than three lengths behind Curlin last time, and he figures to play catch me if you can. Note that he was 2nd to Bernardini in the 2006 edition of this race. He is relatively fresh with only a trio of outings this year, and his career best 113 speed rating only trails Curlin.

Mambo in Seattle is a rapidly developing three-year-old exiting a heartbreaking defeat to Colonel John in the Travers. Originally, he was supposed to come to my neck of the woods to compete in the Super Derby at Louisiana Downs, but his sharp connections opted for this much tougher spot instead. He is bred to run all day and owns a decent mud pedigree. Albarado obviously abandons for the reigning Horse of the Year, but Prado is an ample sub.

A.P. Arrow was the gem of consistency before heading to Dubai earlier this year, and he has fallen flat on his face in a trio of graded starts since. Pletcher also trains Ravel, who is bred to love the mud, but his lone triple digit speed rating was earned in the Grade 3 Sham in 2007.

Merchant Marine has Allen Jerkins in his corner, but he was dusted in both of his grade one starts. Son of hot sire Tiznow is another with strong mud breeding.

Timber Reserve had to drop into an optional claimer to get a win at the Spa. His last two graded starts were ugly, and trainer John Kimmel has cooled off significantly after a nice run late in the Saratoga meet.

Angliana is a gem of consistency, but he is a grade three type at best.

Stones River was 4th to Anak Nakal in the PA Derby. He is 3-3 on a wet track but is over his head in this spot.

Below is a replay of the 2008 Travers Stakes, featuring Mambo in Seattle, courtesy of YouTube.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

NY-bred Ice Cool Kitty is a 9-16 pro with a trio of local wins and a pair of extended sprint tallies. She has not been out since November ‘07 and it likely using this race as a springboard to state bred stakes races down the road. Her mate Looky Yonder has won her last three conventional dirt starts and is 2-2 at Big Sandy. She’s a three-time 7f winner, and Gomez is 2-2 with the versatile sort.

Wild Gams offers a hint of value at 5-1 on the line. I was on her in a graded event at Keeneland last fall, and she was necked in one of two starts at this distance. She showed improved tactical ability in the $250k My Juliet (six furlongs) at Philly Park last time, and she should be primed for another top effort 3rd race back.

Rite Moment has been part of the exacta in 9 straight starts. She won a similar graded event at this distance in April, and she was freshened after a place finish in the flat mile Shuvee (G2) here.

I selected Baroness Thatcher a few times last year, and the Bill Mott trainee typically runs well without winning. 2-18 miss can hit the board once again.

In the Grade 2 Tom Fool Handicap (race 8), Dutrow once again has a major player with Not For Money. The four-year-old exits a smashing course/distance optional claiming tally, but he got away with first quarter in 23 seconds, and that led to his inflated speed rating. Place finisher Bribon came back to score, but the rail-sitter is worth trying to topple at underlaid odds.

Lucky Island is 3-3 this year and 4-5 lifetime for Kiaran McLaughlin. He runs well fresh and owns fine positional speed. His last win occurred here, and he’s also 1-1 at 7f.

Tasteyville has fired in 10 of last 12, winning five. Handles and footing (fast, slop) and a variety of distances.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Race 1: Buy A Personality last to first in the compact opener. Always respect sharp conditioner Bruce Levine.

Race 2: Kent D/Mott struck in a big way with overpriced ($270k) purchase Wolfson in this maiden claimer for NY-breds. How could 0-12 Another Hades go off favored over the former? Chalk up another underneath finish for the latter.

Race 3: Drama Lady upset heavy fav and classy comebacker Winning Point. It was a respectable showing from the McLaughlin trained runner-up, but I thought she was cruise through this level and return to the stakes ranks…not so fast!

Race 4: My Dinah ($6.90) is now 3-3 turf to dirt, and she made it look easy in the opening leg of the Pick 6. Contessa/Prado fav Love Co (3rd) was aggressively handled and opened up a huge lead before yielding to the winner turning for home.

Race 5: Rick Dutrow may have said some odd things regarding Big Brown, Kent D recently, but I do not hold any grudges, etc. with trainers, jockeys, or horses. Mr. Dutrow got the job done for me with returnee Youbetthecan ($21). I played him versus similar at the Gulf. He did not show his best that day, but he was ready to rumble off this layoff, a 25% angle for Dutrow. Cornelio Velasquez was the returning pilot.

Race 6: Strange race. Speed has not been holding at this distance, but Sumphin appeared poised to pull off a wire job before 22-1 Willsboro Point ran him down by 1/3/4 lengths. Second win for Eibar Coa. Stormy Mirage (3rd) continues to improve for Iwinski. Dancing Tin Man (4th) was left with too much to do by Cornelio V, and the fast finisher missed 2nd by a neck and a head.

Race 7: Cornelio V got his 2nd turf win of the day with prompt fav Myakka. I thought Justinline would sit the perfect trip, but he steadied and got caught in traffic, and he never responded after being taken out of his stalking game.

Race 8: Forest Dreams set the pace but could not last while trying turf and winners for the first time. I warned that he would be an underlay. My free MySpace pick Pennington was more than ready for open company, and Coa nails the hat-trick! Raynicks Fan tried to make it close, but my top was overcoming earlier traffic and won by a comfortable 1/2 length. Papa Bear (4th) was wide throughout and can go better next time.

Race 9: Easy wire job for Kent D and Ten Forty. Saddling double for Bruce Levine, this time first lasix off a layoff. Pick 6 paid $103,754. For the record, I had four.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Below is my Wednesday analysis from Belmont Park, complete with betting strategies. There is a $1,186,625 carryover from Belmont Stakes day, thanks in large part to Da’ Tara.

Belmont Park analysis (Wednesday, June 11, 2008)

by Jarrod Horak (racingonthenet.com, thoroughbredfever.com)

BEL 1 (Str-Alw, 3up, 8f) Number 5 Buy A Personality (9-2) has earned improved figs in all four exacta finishes. Levine is 28% 3rd race back and 34% with beaten favs. Number 4 Value Player (3-1) is back quickly for Dutrow, and Prado is 23% with this outfit. Consistent check earner will be finishing. The Plays: Number 5 to win, Exacta box 4-5

BEL 2 (Mcl-35k, NY-bred 3up, 6f) Number 6 Wolfson (4-1) is a $270k purchase out of the state bred straight maiden ranks for Kent D/Mott. An early/pressing trip is anticipated. Number 7 Blue Monster (12-1) is a 2nd timer now under the care of 33% layoff wiz Allen Iwinski. Johnny V is 2-5 with this barn recently. Number 2 Another Hades (5-2) was 2nd in his lone start at this level, and I like the rider upgrade to Coa. 0-12 colt sports the best figs but could get overbet on the win end. The Plays: Number 6 to win, Quinella 6-7, Exacta 6-7/2

BEL 3 (OC-75/3x, f&m 4up, 8f) Number 3 Winning Point (7-5) was on my radar screen last year, and the talented daughter of Point Given was part of the exacta in all seven of her starts. McLaughlin has her now, and he’s 24% with this type of returnee. On to bigger and better things after this optional claiming tally. Number 2 Scooter Girl (6-1) is out of a profitable 32% layoff barn and can complete the exacta. The Plays: Exacta 3-2

BEL 4 (OC-25/2x, NY-bred f&m 3up, 8f) Pick Six begins here. Number 8 La Mure (12-1) is back in New York after a failed turf run for veteran Maryland conditioner King Leatherbury. She was an above par place finisher versus similar course/distance foes two back, and she always fires every other race. Number 2 My Dinah (3-1) has won both of her turf to dirt starts. She reunites with winning pilot Espinoza, who is 3-6 with this barn, and another surface switching smasher is anticipated. Number 1 Love Co (5-2) dons the hood, lands Prado, and hails from a 19% turf to dirt barn. Come and get the rail-sitting fav. The Plays: Number 8 to win, Exacta 8/1-2, Exacta 1-2/8

BEL 5 (Clm-35k/2L, 3up, 9f inner turf) Number 7 Youbetthecan (6-1) was my choice at the Gulf two back, but he failed to fire in either of his starts versus similar. He did show some turf ability in his Big A maiden claiming tally, and Dutrow is 25% with this type of layoff runner. Cornelio V strings along. Number 6 Hot Table (3-1) is obvious for Kent D/Mott after a decent place finish versus similar, but the fig was nothing special. Much more consistent this year with 3 of 4 good efforts. Number 5 Kick Up Your Heels (6-1) was a wide 6th in the Hot Table claimer on May 24th. 3rd race back and winning pilot Prado strings along. Number 14 Flash of Victory (4-1) is a solid turf performer, and he’s a legit win player from a tough post if able to draw in from the AE list. The Plays: Number 7 to win, Exacta 7/5-6-14, Exacta 5-6-14/7, $1 Grand Slam 5-6-7-14/2-4-8/4/5

BEL 6 (Str-Alw, 3up, 8.5T) Number 2 Stormy Mirage (10-1) is a turf profile fit, and 33% layoff trainer Iwinski has him going the right way. 17% turf rider Johnny V gets a leg up. Number 4 Romp (6-1) fell as the fav in a Monmouth entry level affair last time. Brown is 36% with shippers, and I’ll give the sustained runner a look in here. Number 8 Dancing Tin Man (3-1) has won 3-4 turf routes and got up at this course/distance last out. The Plays: Number 2 to win, Exacta 2/4-8, Exacta 4-8/2

BEL 7 My racingonthenet free selection of the day.

BEL 8 My MySpace free selection of the day.

BEL 9 (Clm-25/2L, 3up, 6f) Number 9 Golden Amulet (7-2) receives a rider upgrade to Castellano, and Del Carroll is 21% 1st tag. He figures right there with a repeat of his April 19th place finish. An outside stalk and pounce trip is projected. Number 10 Ten Forty (3-1) is the one to reel in under Kent D. Levine is 33% 1st lasix and 28% with this type of layoff runner. The Plays: Number 10 to win, Exacta box 9-10

Photo Credit: Newscom

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Below is my Friday analysis from Belmont Park, complete with betting strategies.

Belmont Park analysis (Friday, June 6, 2008)

by Jarrod Horak (racingonthenet.com, thoroughbredfever.com)

BEL 1 (Clm-15k/2L, 3up, 8f) Let’s shop for a price in the ugly opener. Number 2 Town Doc (8-1) showed some signs of life in his latest, and the place finisher returned to score. Barn is quite competent with this type of distance switcher. The Plays: small win/place bet on Town Doc

BEL 2 (MSW, NY-bred f&m 3up, 6f) Number 1 Seasons Wise (9-2) chased an above par pace and threw in the towel off a layoff in her 2nd career outing. Gomez and lasix add to her appeal today. Note that she was 3rd in her bow, and the winner and runner-up both returned to score. Number 8 Mrs. Holden (4-1) made a wide move from the 12-hole at 3-1 in her debut. Jerkins is 30% 1st lasix. Number 2 Scott’s Choice (5-1) was a wide 5th in her 8-1 course/distance bow. McLaughlin is 26% with 2nd timers. Number 9 Main Street (5-2) will logically take action after a pair of place finishes to kick off her career. I like her connections, and Levine is 33% 1st lasix. She projects a wide stalking trip and might disappoint on the win end once again. The Plays: Number 1 to win, Quinella 1/2-8, Trifecta 1-2-8/9/1-2-8

BEL 3 (Clm-20k, 3yo fil, 6f) Number 5 Goretty (6-5) exits an above par wire job at Monmouth and looks too fleet for these. Barn is 4-6 with claiming repeat attempts. Number 2 My Luckey Penneny (8-1) was 2nd when last seen on the main (April 13th), and barn is 19% turf to dirt. The Plays: Exacta 5-2

BEL 4 (OC-25/2x, NY-bred f&m 3up, 6f) Number 4 Salt City Miss (6-1) has won her last two conventional dirt starts. She tried the weeds and set the pace before weakening to 5th in her latest. She attracts Johnny V and should sit a decent stalking trip at playable odds. Number 5 Reyanna’s Jet (9-2) always runs her race for a profitable barn, and she’s a stalk and pounce type as well. Number 6 No Shopping Maria (9-5) and Number 7 Greg’s Lassy (2-1) both exits sharp entry level tallies for very good barns. Either could repeat, but the value is found in my top pair. The Plays: Number 4 to win, Exacta box 4-5

BEL 5 (Mcl-45k, 3up, 8.5f inner turf) Number 4 Harbinger (9-2) contested the pace and weakened in the final two furlongs of a longer straight maiden turfer last out. Donk removes the hood and reaches out for Johnny V, the same connections of my 4th race top. Number 7 Subprime Lending (5-1) ran okay in his two turf starts at the Gulf. Prado hops aboard, and Violette is 22% with straight maiden droppers. Number 10 Chobe (5-2) has been a $375k bust after three starts. He could move forward tagged for Clement, but he will almost certainly take too much action. The Plays: Number 4 to win, Exacta box 4-7

BEL 6 (MSW, f&m 3up, 8T) Number 2 Mafietta (4-1) has shown some quality in her last two dirt starts. She is out of decent turf sire Giant’s Causeway and looms a formidable foe on any footing. Number 7 Platinumplus (7-5) found trouble as the fav last time, and she was necked when tagged two back. Coa/Tagg contender will get overbet again. Number 6 Whirling Agatha (12-1) is a Jerkins returnee, and she would surely be happy if this race was transferred to the main. Same goes for main track only entrant Number 1a Right Place (8-1). The Turf Plays: Number 2 to win, Exacta 2-7

BEL 7 (Clm-35k, 3up, 8.5f inner turf) Number 1 Lord Louis (5-1) is back in a preferred turf route off the claim, and Prado is 2-3 with Contessa recently. Should improve 2nd time back. Number 3 Real Quality (5-2) drops to his lowest level, and Albertrani is 31% 3rd start back. The Plays: Number 1 to win, Exacta box 1-3

BEL 8 (OC-50/2x, f&m 3up, 7T) Number 1 Polar Circle (3-1) might be the goods for Mott. Overseas transplant was up the track in a trio of group events, and she won her other two turf sprint starts, her Newbury maiden bow and a Listed affair at Newmarket. She adds lasix for this. Number 1a Sweet Ransom (3-1) reunites with Kent D and is pretty consistent. Number 7 Say You Will (8-5) runs well fresh and handles any surface. She placed in her last two graded tries and appears perfectly spotted at a favorable distance. The Plays: Number 1 to win, Exacta box 1-7

BEL 9 My MySpace free selection of the day.

BEL 10 My racingonthenet free selection of the day.

Photo Credit: Newscom

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Nick Zito’s Commentator is the 6-5 morning line choice in Monday’s Grade 1 Metropolitan Mile at Belmont Park. He exits a pair of facile wire jobs at Gulfstream, and he is 4-6 at Big Sandy and 3-3 at a flat mile. Those are impressive stats indeed, but the enigmatic sort has tossed in a low odds clunker on more than one occasion, and I will seek a bit of value with the improving Divine Park.

The son of Chester House began his career last year with three straight triumphs, then finished up the track in the Grade 1 Malibu following a four-month break.

He broke through the gate and ran last in the General George to kick off his 2008 campaign, then rattled off two straight triple digit fig victories, including the Grade 3 Westchester at this course/distance on April 30th.

The versatile Kiaran McLaughlin trainee is 5-2 on the line and has won both of his starts at a flat mile around one-turn.

First Defence has speed and won his seasonal bow by a hard fought neck, but note that all four of his career wins have been accomplished after a layoff. Robert Frankel runner is a regression candidate.

Z Humor was last seen finishing 14th in the Kentucky Derby, and his consistent entrymate Premium Wine landed the show in the Grade 2 General George and Grade 1 Carter, both at seven furlongs. The latter lands Kent D and sports the look of a live longshot.

Kiss The Kid has route speed and appears better on turf or a wet main track, and Lord Snowdon will be grinding away late.

Global Hunter invades from Santa Anita. He was 3rd to Surf Cat in his US bow. Longshot late runner Council Member rounds out the field.

Photo Credit: Newscom

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever