Part four of my Breeders’ Cup Classic blog, and below is a look at the final four pre-entrants.
Colonel John rates a longshot look in the Classic. 2-time local graded winner just missed in the Goodwood, and he won the Grade 1 Travers at this distance last year. He was my Ky Derby top in ‘08, and I have always had a soft spot for him. He was visually impressive winning the Wickerr on the turf earlier this year, and I would like to see him return to the weeds at some point.
Chocolate Candy is familiar …read more

We have a 10-race card on tap at Louisiana Downs on June 6th, and a big crowd is expected to come out and root for hometown hero Calvin Borel in the Belmont Stakes. Before I look at the Belmont and Saturday card at LAD, let’s recap the last two racedays…
June 4th
Fast main track and off the turf. Five wire jobs on the day.
Big day on the analysis front. Tabbed 6 tops on the 9-race card.
Bourque, Riquelme, and PVal each booted home a pair.
Apprentice rider Anna Roberts won her 2nd race of the meet with trainer Jorge Lara. She sent my best …read more

A field of 10 has been drawn for the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes , and Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird has been installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite. Borel fits the late runner like a glove, but he is only 1 for his last 5 and is not the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Charitable Man is the 3-1 2nd choice, and the Peter Pan winner might get brave if able to sneak away early.
Dunkirk is next at 4-1, and the lightly raced $3.7 million colt flashed talent in Florida before finding trouble on the …read more

The two main elements in predicting the ‘09 Belmont Stakes outcome are pedigree and pace handicapping.
Pace makes the race, and Charitable Man looms the one to catch. He is 3-3 on conventional dirt and 2-2 at Belmont. He pulled off a wire job in 6.5f career bow and is capable of rating should another rival get aggressive.
Miner’s Escape does not appear as swift as Charitable Man, but the improving sort exits a pair of prominent throughout nine furlong tallies. Remember that Nick Zito trainee Da’ Tara pulled off a wire job upset in this race last …read more

Before we revisit the longshot list, let’s look at today’s Derby news. A field of 20 was drawn for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, but Win Willy was not among them. His ankle injury allowed Nick Zito to sneak into the field with Nowhere To Hide.
I started my Derby longshot list on April 11th, and 4 of my 5 originals picks made the field. Not bad considering all of the defections the past few weeks. Patena did not make it, and wouldn’t it figure that I had him in the Derby future pool…oops! Hopefully he will return …read more

Quality Road was just getting over a quarter crack when a second one popped up at the worst possible time, and James Jerkens wisely decided to remove him from Derby consideration. The final two legs of the Triple Crown are still possible if he recovers in time. Either way, he is one to keep an eye on later this year, and here’s hoping for a speedy recovery!

Chocolate Candy was on the verge of being removed from my Derby longshot list due to his uninspiring morning activity since arriving in Louisville, but he rebounded with a …read more

Pioneerof The Nile drilled six furlongs in 1:13.52 over the drying out Churchill oval on Tuesday. Baffert liked the move, and more importantly, clocker and DRF columnist Mike Welch gave him a big thumbs up. He will have his final Derby work early next week, and he looks like a major factor at this point.
I Want Revenge breezed five panels (1:01.62) in company with Gato Go Win. Regular rider Joe Talamo was up for the work. He was not asked for his best in the maintenance move.

Mike Smith was up for Chocolate Candy’s flat mile (1:42.06) move. He was reportedly worn …read more

Kentucky Challenge winner and Blue Grass also-ran Mafaaz will not run in the Kentucky Derby. His new trainer Kiaran McLaughlin will give him some time on the farm before bringing him to New York. Turf racing is reportedly in his future.

Pioneerof The Nile and Chocolate Candy have arrived at Churchill Downs. The 1-2 Santa Anita Derby finishers are both coming off strong Pro-Ride drills, and it will be interesting to see how they handle conventional dirt.
The connections of Arkansas Derby also-ran Flat Out would like to run on the first Saturday in May, but he only has $32.5k in …read more

Patena disappointed in the Blue Grass Stakes, so he will regroup and is out of the Derby chase. With Patena out, the updated longshot list includes a newbie at #3…
#5 – Flying Private finished an even 5th in the Arkansas Derby. The Lane’s End runner-up sits 20th on the graded earnings list with $124,000, and with the Lexington Stakes to be run this Saturday, he is not a lock to make the Derby…yet. The Wayne Lukas trainee owns a strong pedigree but needs to show more if he expects to make a dent on the first …read more

#5 – Patena has been on my radar screen since fine place finish in Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds in January. Dutrow/IEAH grabbed him shortly after that effort, but his subsequent Louisiana Derby effort was disappointing to say the least. He might not have cared for the off footing last time, so I will draw a line though that non-effort. He gets one more shot at Derby participation in Saturday’s Blue Grass (G1), and nothing less than an exacta finish will do, as he only has $20k in graded earnings at this stage. He owns strong breeding and could …read more