Blame was my Super Derby top, and he ran a big race to land the place behind lone speedster Regal Ransom that day. He was facing quality older horses in Lexington, including multiple graded winner Parading. The latter had the lead in the lane on Oct 31st, but Blame wore him down for his first graded tally. Hats off winning trainer Al Stall Jr. and jockey Jamie Theriot.

Super Derby runner-up Blame captures the Grade 2 Fayette at Keeneland

Churchill Downs kicks off their fall meet on Nov. 1st, and the opening day Stars of Tomorrow card features a pair of graded juvenile races.

First up is the Grade 3 Pocahontas for 2yo fillies, and they will be traveling a flat mile on the main track. Click here for my Pocahontas analysis.

The 2yo males get their turn in the Grade 3 Iroquois, and from the if it ain’t broke don’t fix it file comes likely fav Dublin. He reeled off two good looking wins at the Spa under Jamie Theriot, but the owners wanted a rider change for the Champagne. They got Ramon Dominguez, and he finished a flat 5th in that event. The Wayne Lukas trainee will now be ridden by Rajiv Maragh, and blinkers are added for this.

Speaking of Theriot, he will ride Comedero. The fleet colt easily captured both of his six furlong starts at Louisiana Downs, and the waters get deeper today.

For my free analysis of the Iroquois, click here.

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Fast main track played fair on Sunday. Stalkers fared best on the turf.

Francisco Torres pulled off a four-bagger to take the lead in the rider standings after the first week. Theriot/Autrey teamed up for another winner, making it four for the week. For the 2nd straight day, Graham/Amoss hooked up for a winner.

Other notable week one stats: Sam David Jr. is off to a 2-2 start. Apprentice rider Dustin Dugas found the winners’ circle in Sunday’s opener. Sturges Ducoing saddled a pair of winners for the week that was, and note that Torres rode both. PVal rode four winners last week, including a pair of stakes wins for Bill Mott. Donnie Meche/Steve Asmussen tandem struck three times.

Friday (11-21-08) Fair Grounds preview

Friday’s 10-race card includes a trio of grass races. Sunny and dry conditions expected through the weekend.

Race 1: Hargill earned an above par speed rating in course/distance tally on Nov. 15th. D.Meche/S.Amsussen runner wheels back quickly and can make it two straight. The formidable jockey/trainer tandem also hook up with live contenders in the 5th, 7th, and 9th races.

Race 4: Theriot/Autrey have fav Time For Etbauer in this spot. They also team up with 3-1 contender Nereus in the 6th.

Race 8: Graham/Amoss have late striding Flying Zombo in this grass route, and trainer is 29% first blinkers. Sam David Jr., 2-2 to start the meet, has wire job threat Wild Dinner Party with Torres aboard, but speed typically backs up over this grass course. Whywhy Cat and Holy Anthem are obvious threats. Invisible Lee will be running late for the unlucky Mike Stidham, who had five place finishers here last week.

Race 10: My racingonthenet free selection of the day.

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Fair Grounds recap (11-15-08)

Fast main track and off the turf on Saturday. In a virtual replay of opening day, early/pressing types held the advantage early, and the track played fair as the day wore on.

Leading rider Pat Valenzuela booted home a pair for the 2nd straight day, and he teamed up to win a stakes race with Bill Mott again as well. Theriot/Autrey teamed up for two winners on opening day and another on Saturday. They also finished 2nd twice today. The aforementioned Bill Mott saddled a pair of winners on opening day and another on Saturday. Two more wins for the Donnie Meche/Steve Asmussen team.

Desert Wheat smartly nabbed the originally scheduled for the turf Mr. Sulu. The late running LA-bred is a serious player on either surface the rest of the meet.

Fair Grounds preview (11-16-08)

Sunday’s 10-race card includes a pair of grass races, and the extended weather forecast is promising. If not back on the turf for this program, then definitely next week. There is a small Pick 6 carryover of $1,309.

Race 3: Morning line fav Ideseeyouinhouston is 0-23, and 2nd choice Y’s Beau appears better on the turf. Brahms Dynasty is a viable alternative to the aforementioned duo. He switches barns and drops to his lowest level. His best career speed rating was earned on the main track, and the turf/dirt runner shows up in a winning spot.

Race 4: Burrowing Owl is the lone Theriot/Autrey runner on the card, and he is a viable threat from the rail.

Race 5: My racingonthenet free selection of the day.

Race 8: Superior Storm gears up for Louisiana Champions Day (Dec. 13th) in this 6f event. She is 3-4 at this distance and should put forth a decent effort off the bench. Biduadeau is clearly better in sprints and could turn the tables on her aforementioned nemesis.

Race 9 My MySpace free selection of the day.

Photo Credit: Newscom

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by Jarrod Horak (Harrah’s Louisiana Downs Track Handicapper/TV Host)

A five-horse spill in Thursday’s 5th, a turf sprint, was triggered when went Battle of Flowers (Colby Hernandez) clipped heels and fell, causing a chain reaction that included Hella Bella (Carlos Gonzalez), Mizzen to Me (Gerard Melancon), Aly Mon (Roberto Villafan), and Miss Kiran (Iram Diego). Villafan, Diego, Melancon, and Hernandez were off their remaining mounts. Gonzalez came back to with the 6th aboard One To Boot for Bret Calhoun, but he took off his final mount Suberi in the 7th.

Donnie Meche/Al Stall Jr. teamed up for two wins on the card, including my grass feature best bet Rose Medallion. Leading trainer Jorge Lara saddled a pair of winners on the card. Pat Valenzuela won the opener and now stands one win shy of 4,000. PVal is named to ride 3 horses on Friday, with Teresa’s Sparkle in race 3 a serious wire job threat.

Louisiana Downs track announcer Travis Stone is one of five named to call the fall meet at Churchill Downs. Each announcer will call one week, with my colleague and friend Travis getting the nod in week two (Nov. 5th-9th). Good luck Travis!

LAD 1 (Mcl-25k, 3-4-5yo, 6f) #3 DROLL (3-2) holds a significant speed fig advantage. He returned with a solid runner-up effort at 5f in a race originally scheduled for turf, and show finisher Leona’s Sweetboy came back to score. #7 Les Bold (3-1) broke last and rallied to finish a decent 4th in $12.5k sprint bow. L.Meche/L.Robideaux Jr. are 23% together, and I like the class hike for a profitable 2nd timer outfit. #1 Deputy’s Lariat (9-2) is out of 11% debut sire The Deputy, and the 4yo gelding shows a decent 4f work on Sept. 13th. PVal/Mouton 36% together. Barn 0-10 debut maiden claiming.

LAD 2 (Clm-5/2L, f&m 3up, 1mile-70yds) #8 BURKE (4-1) finally graduated in her 28th start at this distance here last time. 5yo mare has hit the board in all five outings under Torres, and she hardly meets a tough field of winners. #10 La Tunnel (3-1) has hit the board in 4 straight at this level, and she caught the slop in a place finish as the fav behind a runaway winner last time. Dugas and Hukill have been winning races recently, and she looms a pace factor at the very least. #7 Irish Fight (10-1) earned best last race speed rating in 6th place finish in a local sprint on Sept. 14th. She did finish 3rd going sprint/route on July 20th.

LAD 3 (MSW, 3-4-5yo f&m, 5T) #3 TERESA’S SPARKLE (2-1) receives a barn upgrade to Morris Nicks, and the speedy filly attracts aggressive pilot PVal. She was a fine 2nd from post 12 behind Serrano at this course/distance on Aug. 3rd, and that one clicked right back versus winners. #1 Tempted ‘n Tried (6-1) shows a few nice recent drills on Aug. 28th and Oct. 1st. Pam Simpson is 3-16 in turf sprints, and leading rider Don Simington is a profitable 18% with this barn. Texas bred should handle turf based on pedigree. #4 Chita Girl (7-2) has hit the board in 3 of last 4 at Evangeline, and winner from her last (Strawberry Ball) came back to score in 1st start versus winners here.

LAD 4 (Clm-5k, f&m 3up, 5.5f) #11 ME EITHER (10-1) disappointed at 7-2 in latest $7.5k start here. She goes 3rd race off the shelf for the 27% Saenz/Pleasant team, and she may have bounced last time following a strong runner-up effort in an Aug. 16th turf sprint, her 1st start in 5-months. #1A Lady Ann Summers (7-2) was 3rd in the same race my top exits, and there should be enough pace to flatter her late kick. She reunites with winning pilot Lonnie Meche. #10 True Love Story (2-1) earned an above par BSF in clear place finish at 6.5f here on Aug. 29th. Obvious stalking presence for the 28% Jacinto/J.Locke tandem.

LAD 5 (Clm-15/2L, 3up, 5T) #10 KELLY’SPREMONITION (9-2) came off a layoff and promptly graduated in turf bow at this distance on June 22nd, then she had all sorts of trouble in close-up 5th in 1st start versus winners, and could have cleared that Alw-2L spot with clear sailing. A failed flat mile against Hi Ho Cheerio followed, than she totally flopped when turned back to this distance last time. She drops and reunites with winning pilot Don Simington, and this distance suits as well. #11 Silver Dollar Sam (2-1) was a solid 3rd in lone optional claiming turf sprint start, and that is the same Sept. 1st race my top exits. He owns the top turf sprint BSF based on that race. #6 Mollie’s Man (9-2) tries turf for the 27% Jacinto/Bob Young team, and he is probably the one to catch today.

LAD 6 (Mcl-15k, LA-bred 2yo fil, 7f) #8 PATROON (5-1) is slowly improving for 16% trainer James Hudson, and this is her best draw to date after landing the outside post in 1st two outings and the 10-hole on Aug. 24th. Leading rider Simington chose this one over 9-2 Jerry Cart FTS Creole Rose. #1 Wise Charge (5-2) defeated my top last time, and she goes from post 11 to the cozy rail. #6 Wild Little Sailor (12-1) has faced some decent company in her 1st 4 outings, and her 29 BSF on July 19th is only 1 point behind today’s rail-sitting fav. Off the pace threat can sneak into the exotics under Torres.

LAD 7 (OC-30/2x, LA-bred 3up, 8.5T) #4 ONE AFTERNOON (15-1) got the job done for me at 17-1 on July 25th, and he was a solid 3rd in a local flat mile turf affair on June 6th. He was only beaten 2.75 lengths at 7.5f last time, and he figures to appreciate today’s added distance. He lands a better post and has more positional speed that he showed on Aug. 30th. #1 St. Zarb (5-1) has only raced on the turf twice, and he stalked and weakened in the stakes ranks versus the likes of Candy Ball, Beta Capo, Diggy Fresh, Autobeacat and Desert Wheat. He comes out of a couple of dirt sprints and might get brave if able to sneak away early. #3 Rock N Rail (10-1) flopped at 7.5f last time, and that was the 2nd time in the past few months that he failed to threaten at that unusual distance. He ran well in his last two at 8-8.5f on the turf, and he beat subsequent stakes winner Diggy Fresh on July 6th.

LAD 8 (MSW, LA-bred 2yo, 6.5f) #4 ISEEZYA (4-1) debuts for Jerry Hardin, and leading rider Don Simington shows up here instead of riding Jerry Cart’s FTS. Barn shows a profit with FTS and 2yo’s. He did work a bullet 3f here in Aug. #3 Sky Creed (15-1) stalked and weakened in his productive debut, a race in which Gratified and Cajun Thunder both returned to score. #5 Ace and the Queen (9-2) shows a nice gate work here on Setp. 25th. Sam Breaux is 20% FTS, and Melancon is 36% with this barn.

LAD 9 (OC-16/1x, 3up, 8T) #6 FARMINGTON (8-1) was along in time to graduate by a head in a 7.5f turfer on Aug. 30th. Donnie Meche sticks with the off the pace type, and today’s expected honest early pace should play into his hands. #1 Lemon Drop Magic (5-1) dueled and finished 4th in lone turf outing, a race won by today’s fav Ball Hall. Nick Leggio is 3-6 sprint/route, and he looms a ground saving prominent throughout trip under Kerwin Clark. He was a wide 5th behind Forestry Gold last time, and that one came back to score again.I’ll give the gelded son of Lemon Drop Kind another shot on the sod. #9 Ball Hall (5-2) ended up last in the yielding World Series of Poker last time. Winner Autobeacat came back to run 2nd to Jonesboro on the Super Derby undercard, and place finisher Wise River won a Grade 3 in his next Hawthorne turf outing. He crossed the line 1st in is previous two turf races here, and note that my top’s pilot D.Meche rode him both times. Why the $16k tag, and why not a 2x spot? He has fine turf trainer Mike Burgess in his corner.

LAD 10 (Clm-10k, LA-bred f&m 3up, 6f) #2 OUR ANGEL HOUR (4-1) has been in fine form here with 3 wins and a 2nd in her last 4 starts, and note that she was DQ’d on Aug. 15th. She owns pressing speed and gets a much better post today. She’s back in with state breds, and I like the confident rise from $5k to $10k. #1 Finally Alone (2-1) is now trained by Steve Asmussen, and he’s 2-36 at the current meet. Prairie Meadows class dropper figures to flash speed from the rail under D.Meche. #5 Hanna Girl (10-1) was dusted as my top on Sept. 6th, and new trainer Tony Richey is 2-4 off the claim. Barn $$ rider Jacinto strings along, and she does show a solid local drill since latest.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Here is a recap of the six graded races from the June 14th Stephen Foster Day card from Churchill Downs…

Race 6 (Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Handicap) In an expected outcome, Hystericalady won as Garrett Gomez pleased, rolling to an effortless 7-1/2 length tally against four overmatched foes. The longest shot Initforthekandy set the pace and held the place. 9f in 1:50.88.

Race 7 (Grade 3 Regret) Pure Clan was the class and deserving fav, and she won by a comfortable 2-3/4 lengths while getting the grassy nine furlongs in 1:49.86. Early/pressing types C J’s Leelee and Zee Zee were helped by the tepid pace, but they could not matches strides with the even money winner.

Race 8 (Grade 3 Northern Dancer) A trio of Kentucky Derby also-rans took the bulk of the action, with Pyro rediscovering his sharp winter form. In a replay of the Louisiana Derby, overlay My Pal Charlie completed the exacta behind the Asmussen trainee, and the tepid early pace aided his early/pressing run. The winner showed more tactical speed than expected, but the race shape was thrown for a loop when likely pacesetter Recapturetheglory failed to break sharply. Visionaire, the 3rd Derby member, finished an even 3rd. 8.5f in 1:43.53.

Race 9 (Grade 2 Jefferson Cup) Tizdejavu controlled proceedings throughout in another sharp wire job. Ken McPeek returnee Old Man Buck was hardly disgraced in a clear show finish, and he can go better next time with more pace to chase. Halo Najib was 4th, and watch for him to return to synthetic ground. Nine grassy furlongs in 1:49.15. Second graded score for Gomez.

Race 10 (Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap) Curlin packed 128 pounds in his first start since a romping Dubai World Cup tally in March. I have never been much of a weight guy, and the heavy load certainly did not slow him down today. A much the best 4-1/4 length score in 1:49.68. The Asmussen trainee has now won five straight in the older handicap ranks. Turf specialist Einstein rallied to steal the place from gritty pacesetter Barcola. The disappointing Grasshopper reared at the start and finished an even 4th. It looked like he would be a force in this division over the winter, but things have gone awry in his last few starts.

Race 11 (Grade 3 Early Times Mint Julip Handicap) Easy wire job for heavy favorite Dreaming of Anna in the finale, giving Garrett Gomez a graded hat trick. Her sharp conditioner Wayne Catalano deserves all the credit for placing the talented turfer in winning spots. Course specialist Ciao was rank and ran last under low % turf rider Mike Luzzi. 8.5 furlongs in 1:42.77.

Photo Credit: Newscom

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

The Saturday, June 14th Stephen Foster Day card from Churchill Downs includes six graded races, highlighted by the return of Curlin in the aformentioned Foster…

Race 6 (Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Handicap) Number 5 Hystericalady (4-5) looks tough at low odds. She just missed repeating in the Humana Distaff at Churchill last time, and the early/pressing sort is especially adept in conventional dirt routes.

Race 7 (Grade 3 Regret) Number 4 Pure Clan (7-5) went 4-4 as a juvenile, and two of those wins were on the grass. Knocked heads with the ill-fated Eight Belles and Proud Spell in three dirt starts this year. The expected tepid pace should help versatile runners like Number 1 C J’s Leelee (6-1) and Number 3 Zee Zee (2-1).

Race 8 (Grade 3 Northern Dancer) A trio of Kentucky Derby also-rans lead the way in this spot. Number 2 Pyro (7-5) is the likely fav, and he must find his sharp winter form to run past these. Number 1 Recapturetheglory (3-1) might attempt a theft from the rail, just like he did in the Illinois Derby in April. Number 6 Visionaire (5-1) is the final Derby member, and he is a late runner looking to rebound as well.

Race 9 (Grade 2 Jefferson Cup) Number 4 Tizdejavu (3-1) is the tepid morning line choice. Consistent colt exits a local wire job over yielding ground. Number 6 Old Man Buck (7-2) is a classy returnee, and his strong juvenile turf form plays well in this spot.

Race 10 (Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap) Number 1 Curlin (3-5) packs 128 pounds in his first start since a romping Dubai World Cup tally in March. Has won four straight in the three-and-up ranks. He should get an honest pace to chase. Number 4 Einstein (5-1) tries to transfer his sharp turf form to the main. He is 2-3 on an off track, but he was a non-threatening 6th in the Donn Handicap on fast ground in February. Number 5 Grasshopper (5-1) has struggled a bit since a strong winter in New Orleans. Number 10 Brass Hat (8-1) is capable of big efforts from time to time, like his close-up place finish at 13-1 in the Clark Handicap here last fall.

Race 11 (Grade 3 Early Times Mint Julip Handicap) Number 3 Dreaming of Anna (1-1) always fires on the sod and will be a prohibitive fav in the field of 11. Number 11 Ciao (6-1) loves the local green and should give a good account of herself.

Photo Credit: Newscom

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The West Coast synthetic specialist has always been on my radar screen, but I especially perked up following his visually impressive Santa Anita Derby triumph. The only question remaining is his ability to handle conventional dirt, and he alleviated many concerns with a good looking Churchill drill. He has all of the tools to win the Derby and is my strong top choice.

Todd Pletcher has come into the Derby with a strong hand previously only to fall flat, but with a couple of longshot chances this year, the pressure is off and he might surprise. Monba has always been well regarded, and he finally started living up to his potential with a Blue Grass tally. That strange Polytrack victory hardly translates into Derby contention, but he has won at Churchill in the past and deserves respect on raw talent, pedigree and connections. Stablemate Cowboy Cal sports the look of a turf/synthetic specialist.

Pyro was on his way to derby favoritism, but a funny thing happened along the way…Polytrack! The dreaded synthetic surface jumped up and bit him in the Blue Grass, and it remains to be seen if he can bounce back on preferred conventional dirt.

Eight Belles is a filly taking on the gents. My first Derby experience was watching Genuine Risk stroll past the boys in the 1980 Derby, so I certainly think it can be done. The Larry Jones miss has talent and is a physical specimen, but she has never raced past eight and one half furlongs and clearly gets the acid test.

Court Vision might be coming to a race. He has finished third in both of his 2008 starts, and he has the seasoning and route foundation to do some damage on the first Saturday in May. I like the looks of his local work in blinkers, and Bill Mott might have something going here.

Adriano could not have been more impressive in the Lane’s End, but that was a Polytrack event six weeks ago. I have always liked his Maryland based trainer Graham Motion, and Edgar Prado had options but stuck with this strong finisher. He is my sneaky Derby longshot.

Gayego, Smooth Air, Visionaire and Z Fortune all have the ability to make some Derby noise, but this race starts and ends with Colonel John, and if he handles the dirt track…forget about it!

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Bsharpsonata had her four race win streak snapped in a neck defeat in the Ashland (polytrack) last time, and the versatile six for ten miss could find her way back into the graded winners’ circle.

Little Belle won the aforementioned Ashland, and the daughter of Pulpit is clearly on the upswing. Versatile Godolphin/McLaughlin runner goes for a four-bagger.

Country Star strutted her stuff for Frankel last year, winning a pair of grade one races. She needed her Keeneland return and can more forward, but how will she handle conventional dirt?

Golden Doc A is a consistent synthetic performer for Barry Abrams, and she is another dirt unknown.

Proud Spell was last seen finishing third in Keeneland’s Ashland Stakes, and she figures to enjoy a return to conventional dirt in the Kentucky Oaks. She owns fine pressing speed and looked good in the Fair Grounds Oaks two back. She figures to go off favored beacause her stablemate Eight Belles will take on the gents in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

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Possible Kentucky Derby favorite Big Brown is obviously talented and has tons of upside, but what are his true chances on the first Saturday in May?

Undefeated colt has only raced three times, and many lightly raced sorts have failed on Derby day, including Curlin last year. Richard Dutrow Jr. is saddling his first Derby starter, and it takes much more than raw talent to win a race like the Derby.

The Florida Derby winner’s task is not impossible, but history is against the likely underlay.

Image: Newscom

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The David Carroll trainee exits a flat effort in the Illinois Derby, but his recent works have been strong. He would have been in a much stronger position if his connections opted to run him in the Rebel Stakes, but the owner decided to skip that prep because of the sheets numbers, and that major error hurts him dearly from a seasoning standpoint.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever