Colonel John rates a longshot look in the Classic. 2-time local graded winner just missed in the Goodwood, and he won the Grade 1 Travers at this distance last year. He was my Ky Derby top in ‘08, and I have always had a soft spot for him. He was visually impressive winning the Wickerr on the turf earlier this year, and I would like to see him return to the weeds at some point.

Chocolate Candy's first preference is the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

Chocolate Candy is familiar to many because he was on the Triple Crown trail this year. He found trouble in the Ky Derby (5th) and Belmont Stakes (9th). He two starts since comprised of  a closing 2nd in the El Cajon and a respectable 5th versus older foes in the Goodwood. His speed ratings are on the upswing, and he should be sitting on a top effort in his 3rd race off a layoff. He clearly does his best work on synthetic ground, and note that the Dirt Mile is his first preference.

Bullsbay has a first preference in the Dirt Mile, and he is enjoying a career year. Go back to February of this year, and was a length behind Richard’s Kid in the Campbell at Laurel. Richard’s Kid won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic this summer at Del Mar, and Bullsbay nabbed the Grade 1 Whitney prior to finishing 3rd behind Rachel Alexandra when last seen in the Woodward at the Spa. The Graham Motion runner handles synthetic but owns stronger speed ratings on regular dirt.

Awesome Gem landed the show in Curlin’s 2007 BC Classic. Versatile late runner is a 2-time graded winner on dirt and exits a sharp tally in the Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup. A win would surprise but he could rally for a minor award.

We have the 2009 Breeders Cup thoroughly covered on Horse Racing Nation. I am pleased to announce that we have launched the BC Dashboard!

Over 100 video replays. Fields and morning lines for all 14 races. Handicapping race outlook. Historical Race Profiles. Find it all at the BC Dashboard.

Results and video from all past Breeders’ Cup Classic races can be found here.

Image: Newscom

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Early/pressing type Quality Road (Elusive Quality) was easily best over clear runner-up Theregoesjojo (Brahms) in the one-turn mile (113 BSF). The aforementioned duo are expected to go next in the Florida Derby, which will be their initial foray around two turns. Without route foundation, they could be in deep water on the 1st Saturday in May, but they are serious players over the Gulfstream speedway, especially the winner. Don’t be shocked in either or both ship out of town (Wood Memorial?) for the next engagements.

Graded route hero Beethoven (Sky Mesa) ran on well to land the show and should appreciate a return to distance racing. Florida Derby should be next for the John Ward runner.

Also-rans Capt. Candyman Can (4th), This Ones for Phil (5th), Notonthesamepage (7th), Taqarub (9th), and Break Water Edison (10th) all have distance limitations.

On the FOY undercard, Affirmatif (Unbridled’s Song) rolled to an effortless turf route tally in his career bow, and he ran faster than his older stablemate and Canadian Turf (G3) winner Twilight Meteor. It will be interesting to see where the Todd Pletcher runner shows up next. Note that Mr. Pletcher already has Dunkirk for the Florida Derby.

Sham Stakes

The Pamplemousse (Kafwain) owns dangerous early speed, and he ran his foes into the ground in the 9f Sham (replay below), which netted him a BSF of 103. The SA Derby is up next for the Julio Canani trainee, and he could prove vulnerable if pressured early.

Florida shipper Take The Points (Even The Score) finished a fine 2nd for Todd Pletcher, and he will either return to SoCal or show up in the Blue Grass at Keeneland.

Recent maiden winner Mr. Hot Stuff, Colonel John’s baby brother, rallied for the show and galloped out strongly in his 1st start versus winners. The Eoin Harty charge should continue to progress.

In other Derby developments, 2yo champ Midshipman is out of the Triple Crown series with a soft tissue injury to his left front leg.

2yo filly champ Stardom Bound is expected in the SA Oaks on March 7th, and a strong effort could land her a date with the gents in the SA Derby.

The Gotham Stakes at the Big A will also be run on March 7th and is expected to include talented West Virginia shipper Russell Road, Haynesfield, SoCal invader I Want Revenge, and Shug McGaughey’s very promising colt Imperial Council.

Photo Credit: newscom.com

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

The Pamplemousse, the 9-5 morning line favorite, has won two straight, including the Grade 3 San Rafael at a flat mile here. Alex Solis/Julio Canani are 4-7 together, and the early/pressing type might get brave if able to sneak away early. He gets a stamina test today and will not offer much wagering value.

Mr. Hot Stuff is on the upswing for trainer Eoin Harty and WinStar Farms. His older brother Colonel John was 6th in last year’s Kentucky Derby before winning the Travers later that summer. The son of 2-time BC Classic winner Tiznow is bred to be any kind and will be closing. I have always liked this one, and the $200k Keeneland sales grad is working well for this. Below is a replay of his Feb 1st maiden win at Santa Anita.

Smart Bid owns fine tactical speed for the 43% Rafael Bejarano/Graham Motion team, and he has handled turf, dirt, and synthetic. Improving sort looms the upsetter.

Take The Points invades from Florida for Todd Pletcher, and we will have to see how he handles synthetic ground. Garrett Gomez hops aboard the winner of two straight.

Bourbon Bay is a quality turf performer, and I would not be shocked if he rallied for a share for sharp conditioner Neil Drysdale.

Mark S The Cooler has failed to threaten in three stakes tries.

Unbridled Roman scratched out of an easier allowance spot earlier this week. He ran well when stretched out here last time, and he gets tested for class today.

Ventana stretches out for Bob Baffert and could challenge The Pamplemousse early.

Hi Flyin Indy is also trained by Eoin Harty, and the Darley Stable colt disappointed in 1st start versus winners last time. His stablemate Mr. Hot Stuff is more interesting.

Tiz True is bred to improve with distance and experience, but he is not fast enough at this stage to compete with these.

Balfour Park was claimed out of a $100k maiden claimer by Craig Lewis, and this is an ambitious spot for the recent graduate.

Lifeline was an early scratch.

Top 3 Selections: (1) Mr. Hot Stuff, (2) The Pamplemousse, (3) Smart Bid

Longshot to watch: Bourbon Bay

Photo Credit: newscom.com

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

On Sunday, Spring House held off Church Service to repeat in San Luis Obispo Hcp (G2). Zambezi Sun finished a disappointing 6th in US bow…he still might be Big Cap bound.

Rail Trip ran his record to 4-4 on Friday, but the promising Ron Ellis runner is not expected for the Big Cap. His Jan 30th Santa Anita win is featured below…

One that will contest the Big Cap is Thunder Road Hcp (G3) hero Matto Mondo. Rafael Bejarano is slated to ride the Richard Mandella trainee, as Mike Smith opts to stick with Tiago, who is winless at ten furlongs.

The Pamplemousse is the anticipated fav for the upcoming Sham Stakes (Feb 28th). Colonel John’s baby bro Mr. Hot Stuff is also expected, along with Todd Pletcher’s Florida shipper Take The Points.

Pioneerof The Nile (Empire Maker), Bob Baffert’s top 3yo in SoCal, continues to work toward an engagement in the Grade 2 San Felipe on March 14th.

Keeping with the 3yo theme, Baffert trainee Zensational graduated in style on Feb 21st for red hot sire Unbridled’s Song. He dashed six panels in 1:08.64 and is worth following.

SoCal shipper Mayor Marv easily nabbed the Turf Paradise Derby on Feb. 21st. David Flores piloted the Bob Baffert runner.

Wednesday (2-25-09) preview

Today’s card features a Pick 6 carryover of $169,420.

Weather: Partly cloudy. High 66.

Race 3: My racingonthenet free selection of the day.

Race 6: This race appears primed for a firster. Swingin Storm (9-2) breaks from an advantageous inner post, and Eoin Harty is a profitable 2-8 with debut maiden claimers. Bejarano takes the call. Broken Record (5-1) debuts for the 3-for-5 Sutherland/Mullins team, and dam has tossed four winners.

Race 5: My MySpace free selection of the day.

Race 8: Miss Cherry (9-2) had a troubled beginning in her 3-1 bow versus similar. Kathy Walsh is having a fine meet, and she deserves another chance.

Photo Credit: newscom.com

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Curlin repeated as Horse of the Year at the Eclipse Award ceremonies. The recently retired all-time North American money earner stands at Lane’s End Farm with a $75k stud fee. Undefeated miss Zenyatta took home Older Female honors.

Big Brown was unanimously voted 3yo Champion, and Proud Spell took down 3yo filly honors over her late stablemate Eight Belles.

As expected, Midshipman is the Juvenile Champ, and Stardom Bound nabbed Juvenile Filly honors.

The other equine Eclipse Awards went to Conduit (Turf Male), Forever Together (Turf Female), Benny the Bull (Male Sprinter), Indian Blessing (Female Sprinter), and Good Night Shirt (Steeplechaser).

Steve Asmussen was the top Trainer, and Garrett Gomez the leading Jockey. Pascacio Lopez nabbed Apprentice Jockey honors, and Stronach Stables edged out IEAH Stables by one vote. Adena Springs (Frank Stronach) took home the Breeder trophy.

California

Colonel John is recovering from a pulled muscle and will miss the upcoming Strub Stakes.

Promising 3yo Pioneerof The Nile continues to tear up Pro-Ride surface in advance of the Robert B. Lewis (G2) on Feb 7th.

Stardom Bound is expected to make her 3yo bow in the Feb 7th Las Virgenes (G1).

Florida

Despite a gloomy economy, handle is on the rise at Gulfstream, and that news is not surprising given the daily full fields and great betting opportunities.

A pair of Kentucky Derby preps are on tap this week at the Gulf. Break Water Edison and Hello Broadway lead the field in the seven panel Hutcheson (G2) on Friday, and Idol Maker (Empire Maker) should prove hard to handle in the Holy Bull (G3) for Todd Pletcher.

Recent Eclipse Award winner Benny the Bull is coming out of retirement after recovering from an ankle chip. The Dutrow/IEAH runner will likely return this summer.

Japan

Casino Drive got back on the beam in an allowance victory, and it would be great to see him return to the US later this year. He may end up in the Dubai World Cup in March.

Photo Credit: newscom.com

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Eoin Harty’s charge was last seen finishing a solid 6th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic versus a salty group of older international company. Besides the Travers, Colonel John also won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Sham (G3), both at Santa Anita Park.

2008 Breeders Cup Classic replay

He began his career with a place finish at Del Mar in 2007, and he won his 2nd career race at the Malibu seven furlong distance. Garrett Gomez, his Travers and Sham pilot, climbs back aboard. He is expected to try the Strub and Big Cap, both routes at Santa Anita Park, following his after Christmas extended sprint run.

Colonel John wins Travers

Into Mischief is supposed to head to the breeding shed following his Malibu engagement. The lightly raced son of Harlan’s Holiday has been part of the exacta in all five career outings, and he must work out a trip from the tricky rail post. Richard Mandella will give regular pilot Victor Espinoza a leg up.

Three-time sprint winner Bob Black Jack is the one to catch, and he exits a needed 5th place finish versus older graded foes.

Golden Spikes invades from Florida for the high percentage Marty Wolfson. The stalk and pounce type has the talent to compete with these, but he has never tried synthetic ground. He did work over the Pro-Ride surface on Dec 19th.

Nownownow has struggled in five starts this year. His last win occurred over yielding ground in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Monmouth Park, and his lack of any speed puts him at a huge disadvantage versus this salty crew.

Guns On The Table is getting better for Bob Baffert, but this is a tough spot to try graded company. Rafael Bejarano ends up here, and I can see him sneaking into the trifecta at nice odds.

3-time graded winner Georgie Boy rounds out the field. He was 4th behind Into Mischief when last seen on the Breeders’ Cup undercard. He should improve following that needed outing, but he might not be as sharp right now.

The Malibu is the 8th race on a 9 race card, which also includes the Grade 3 Sir Beaufort (race 7) for three-year-olds traveling a flat mile on the turf. Gio Ponti (post 12) is the 2-1 morning line favorite.

The 6th race, the $125k California Breeders’ Champion Stakes, is a state bred juvenile event, and the speedy Lordgivemealift is the tepid 7-2 morning line choice in a seemingly wide open event.

The 3rd race, a maiden special weight sprint, is my MySpace free selection of the day.

Photo Credit: Newscom

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Early/pressing types dominated on both surfaces.

Hat trick for Joel Rosario.

Laragh grabbed the early lead as expected. She turned back a few backstretch challengers before gamely prevailing by a length in the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet. Edgar Prado rode the turf/synthetic specialist for John Terranova II.

Sunday (12-14-08) Hollywood Park preview

Sunday’s 9-race card features the $75k On Trust Handicap, to be contested at the unusual distance of seven and one-half furlongs on Cushion Track. Likely favorite Dancing in Silks was last seen finishing 2nd behind Into Mischief in the Damascus at Oak Tree.

The 5th race, a juvenile maiden route, is featured below.

Hollywood Park race 5 (MSW, 2yo, 8.5f)

(1) Fiery Rebel (8-1) – Fine 2nd in sprint last time. Might flash speed from rail.

(2) Personality Kid (4-1) – Late runner improved at this distance last time.

(3) Mr. Hot Stuff (9-2) – Colonel John’s kid bro should relish this trip.

(4) Life Goes On (15-1) – Wide and faded in route bow.

(5) Lifeline (8-1) – Disappointed in 1st three outings. Shirreffs barn is cold.

(6) Mickey Rocky (20-1) – 2nd in a maiden claimer last out.

(7) Mayor Marv (8-1) – Headed as fav in Big A mud on Nov 15th. Working well for this.

(8) The Pamplemousse (9-5) – Might appreciate longer distance after a pair of solid sprints.

(9) Mr. Holmes (8-1) – Rallying 2nd in sprint bow. Mullins 23% 1st route.

Analysis: Mr. Hot Stuff has yet to live up to his flashy pedigree after a pair of sprint outings. $200k Keeneland sales grad deserves a chance to route for the 36% Rafael Bejarano/Eoin Harty team. He might spring to life today.

The $20 Play:

Daily Wager recap

Saturday (12-13-08): Lullabytime scratched.

Overall: (-119.40) through 34 days of the Hollywood Park fall meet.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Below are post positions, morning line odds, and notes for the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic, to be run at ten furlongs over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface on October 25, 2008.

Santa Anita Race 9: Grade 1 BC Classic, 3up, 10f

(1) Go Between (8-1) – Fresh synthetic specialist is training well for this. Garrett Gomez chose this one over Colonel John.

(2) Casino Drive (10-1) – Japanese runner is 3-3, and the $950k purchase is well-bred and has a world of potential.

(3) Tiago (15-1) – Mike Smith/John Shirreffs teamed up to win yesterday’s Ladies’ Classic with Zenyatta. He finished 2nd in the local prep for this.

(4) Duke of Marmalade (10-1) – Ten furlong overseas turf specialist has won 5 grade one races.

(5) Henrythenavigator (10-1) – Flat mile overseas turf specialist is Duke of Marmalade’s stablemate, and note that stable rider Murtagh chose to ride Duke in this event.

(6) Smooth Air (50-1) – Florida based 3yo has tactical speed but seems a cut below this group.

(7) Student Council (20-1) – Curlin’s stablemate is a grade one performer in his own right, and he is proven over synthetic footing.

(8) Raven’s Pass (6-1) – The 3rd and final overseas invader is similar to Henrythenavigator. He has had a long campaign.

(9) Curlin (7-5) – The defending Classic champ has not been as dominating in his recent races. He is training well for his first synthetic try.

(10) Fairbanks (10-1) – Was re-routed to this race when all of the pace defected. The one to catch.

(11) Colonel John (20-1) – My Derby top enjoys synthetic racing and won the Grade 1 Travers at this distance.

(12) Champs Elysees (20-1) – Marathon turf specialist was 3rd in the Big Cap in March. He adds blinkers for this.

To view my 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic selections and wagering strategies, click here.

To view my 2008 Breeders’ Cup Sprint selections and wagering strategies, click here.

Duke of Marmalade Photo Credit: Newscom

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Curlin breezed four furlongs in :49.60 on October 20th, and his stablemate Student Council continues to impress in morning drills, this time getting a half-mile in :48.18 while full of run. Shaun Bridgmohan will ride the latter.

Pyro, the 3rd member of the Steve Asmussen express, worked a pedestrian 4f in :51.17. Julien Leparoux has picked up the mount.

In other Classic news, Mast Track developed a quarter crack on Monday and has been eliminated from Cup consideration. The Frankel trainee was expected to set the pace in the Classic.

Robert Frankel will be represented in the Classic by Champs Elysees, who worked 5f in :59.60 while equipped with blinkers. Alan Garcia has picked up the riding assignment.

Eoin Harty has elected to start Well Armed in the Dirt Mile, and he worked an effortless 4f in :46.91 with a strong gallop out in preparation for that event. He is yet another early/pressing type out of the Classic.

Harty’s Colonel John breezed 4f in :49.20 with a 1:01.84 gallop-out. He clearly enjoys synthetic footing and is an improving three-year-old. Edgar Prado will ride as Garrett Gomez chose Go Between as his mount for the Classic.

Todd Pletcher’s Fairbanks, pre-entered in the Marathon and Classic, may now opt for the latter race after the aforementioned speed defections.

Awesome Gem is expected to chose the Turf Mile over the Classic. I was perusing his pp’s earlier today and thought he was a better fit at a flat mile on the turf.

Go Between worked 4f in :48.20 at Churchill on Monday, and he is expected to arrive at Santa Anita on Tuesday.

Casino Drive cantered around the Hollywood oval on Monday, and note that the versatile sort will be all over an expected tepid early pace in the Classic.

Tiago jogged and galloped at Hollywood as well. Regular pilot Mike Smith strings along.

Calder shipper Smooth Air arrived at Santa Anita on Sunday, and he also jogged and galloped nine furlongs. Manoel Cruz will ride.

Duke of Marmalade (Johnny Murtagh), Henry the Navigator (Johnny V), and Raven’s Pass (Frankie Dettori) will arrive from Europe later in the day on Oct. 20th.

Photo Credit: Newscom

I have added a replay (youtube) of the 2008 Juddmonte International, featuring Duke of Marmalade (pictured above).

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Curlin, fresh off a sharp five furlong drill over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface in between races on October 13th, has been pre-entered for a Breeders’ Cup Classic title defense on Oct. 25th. His five furlong work on Monday (pictured above) was completed in :59.11 while in company with Hawaii Calls.

Steve Asmussen also sent out Classic contender Student Council on Monday, and he drilled six furlongs in 1:12.40 under Shaun Bridgmohan.

Kentucky Derby hero Big Brown’s Classic hopes were dashed with a career ending injury to his right front heel following a turf work at Aqueduct on Oct. 13th. The fragile feet finally gave out as he worked without front shoes in company with defending BC Mile winner Kip Deville.

Casino Drive was an easy winner of an optional claiming event at Santa Anita on Oct. 13th (video replay below), and he earned a BSF of 92 for his efforts. The 3-3 Japanese sensation is definitely on target for the Classic. Victor Espinoza rode on Monday, and he will be aboard for his next start as well.

Grade 1 winning synthetic specialist Go Between worked with a purpose at Churchill Downs on Oct. 14th, logging seven panels in an impressive 1:23.60. He is scheduled to work once more before departing for SoCal on Oct. 21st.

In other BC Classic developments, last year’s 3rd place finisher Awesome Gem was pre-entered for the 2008 edition following the retirement of Big Brown. He worked five furlongs in :59 and change on Sunday.

Tiago drilled a strong six furlongs in 1:12 and change in preparation for the Classic last Saturday, and he reportedly galloped out strongly under Mike Smith as well. He is coming off a rallying place finish in the nine furlong Goodwood. He finished 5th as a three-year-old in the 2007 edition.

Smooth Air went a mile in 1:42 and change at Calder, and the ambitiously spotted sophomore is expected to work again on Friday before heading to Santa Anita the next day.

Travers hero Colonel John continues to work strongly, as he turned in a best of 11 six furlong move in 1:11.40 on Oct. 14th.

Photo credit: Newscom

Below is a replay of Casino Drive’s effortless Classic prep, courtesy of YouTube.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever