Blame was my Super Derby top, and he ran a big race to land the place behind lone speedster Regal Ransom that day. He was facing quality older horses in Lexington, including multiple graded winner Parading. The latter had the lead in the lane on Oct 31st, but Blame wore him down for his first graded tally. Hats off winning trainer Al Stall Jr. and jockey Jamie Theriot.

Super Derby runner-up Blame captures the Grade 2 Fayette at Keeneland

Churchill Downs kicks off their fall meet on Nov. 1st, and the opening day Stars of Tomorrow card features a pair of graded juvenile races.

First up is the Grade 3 Pocahontas for 2yo fillies, and they will be traveling a flat mile on the main track. Click here for my Pocahontas analysis.

The 2yo males get their turn in the Grade 3 Iroquois, and from the if it ain’t broke don’t fix it file comes likely fav Dublin. He reeled off two good looking wins at the Spa under Jamie Theriot, but the owners wanted a rider change for the Champagne. They got Ramon Dominguez, and he finished a flat 5th in that event. The Wayne Lukas trainee will now be ridden by Rajiv Maragh, and blinkers are added for this.

Speaking of Theriot, he will ride Comedero. The fleet colt easily captured both of his six furlong starts at Louisiana Downs, and the waters get deeper today.

For my free analysis of the Iroquois, click here.

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Image: Stacy Edwards

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

The Polytrack was fast as always. Turf was listed as yielding. Seven races run on synthetic, and only one wire job as stalkers and closers scored six times. Late runners nabbed all three turf races.

Kent Desormeaux booted home both stakes winners on the day.

Grade 3 Bourbon: Todd Pletcher’s flashy fav Interactif did not disappoint in a good looking off the pace tally. He looms a formidable presence in the upcoming Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

Grade 1 Spinster: Pace fell apart in this one, and overseas transplant Proviso was the major beneficiary…please hold all tickets! After further review, Mushka was placed first via disqualification after the Proviso caused interference in the stretch. Underlaid fav and dirt specialist Swift Temper failed to handle the synthetic surface. This race will probably not have a major impact on the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic.

FallStars Weekend: A Look Back

Keeneland ran numerous Breeders’ Cup preps in their opening FallStars weekend. Which races were key, and which were duds? I will try to break down the stakes action and the implications for the upcoming 2-day Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita.

Fatal Bullet finished 2nd in last year’s BC Sprint, and he was the prominent throughout winner of the Phoenix on opening day. He has now raced 11 times on synthetic ground with 9 wins and a pair of place finishes. With only three starts this year he is a viable pace threat on Cup day. Capt. Candyman Can rallied strongly to just miss, and that was much better than his previous synthetic effort. 3yo gelding has had a long, successful campaign and may have peaked in the Phoenix. Might be overbet in the Sprint. Ez Dreamer ran hard throughout in a solid show finish, and this was his synthetic bow. Brings speed to the party should he opt to ship to SoCal.

58th running of the Alcibiades on opening day went to Negligee. The 2yo filly graduated in a Canadian maiden claimer and was 2nd in a $150k event 2nd time out. She moved to the Terranova barn and passed this 8.5f test with flying colors. She Be Wild tasted defeat for the first time but was hardly disgraced in a clear place finish. I like the fact that she got tested before the Cup. Amen Hallelujah was a wide prominent throughout factor in her 1st start for IEAH/Dutrow. She owns a sprint oriented pedigree and might find the waters tough in the Cup. Beautician finished a troubled 5th and will head to SoCal. Needs clear sailing next time, and she remains eligible for an entry level spot. Since the BC Juvenile Fillies will be contested at Santa Anita, I prefer the horses exiting the Oak Leaf Stakes.

Silver Timber is a sharp NY-bred, and he kept it going in the Woodford. He owns a versatile running style but will be tested over the tricky downhill layout in the BC Turf Sprint. Mr. Nightlinger ran well to finish 2nd, but he flopped in the Cup last year and has lost 6 of his last 7. Do not think the Cup winner came out of this race.

Informed Decision is a major player in the BC Filly & Mare Sprint, and she ran her sythetic record to 6 for 6 with a late running score in the Thoroughbred Club of America. SoCal invader Carlsbad ran a fine race to finish a clear 2nd. The consistent Porte Bonheur finished 3rd.

Diamondrella is headed to the Breeders' Cup after First Lady win

Diamondrella punched her Breeders’ Cup ticket with a sharp off the pace tally in the First Lady. She has won her last seven turf starts and will have to face the gents in the BC Mile. Tizaqueena was a game 2nd, and heavy fav Forever Together was late on the scene for 3rd. The latter will attempt to defend her BC Filly & Mare Turf title on Nov. 6th.

The Breeders’ Futurity was a visually unimpressive race, and Noble’s Promise bested 13 other juveniles from a stalking position. Aikenite was 2nd best for Pletcher. My initial impression is that the West Coast contingent, lead by the undefeated Lookin At Lucky, have no worries on Cup day.

Big day for IEAH Stables. They got Diamondrella home earlier in the day on Saturday, and they struck grade one gold again with Court Vision. The Rick Dutrow trainee handled the soft footing and heads to the Breeders’ Cup Mile with some momentum. Classy colt likes firm ground as well and must be viewed as a contender on Nov 7th. Karelian ran great following a lengthy vacation and almost pulled off the upset. Justenuffhumor seemed to dislike the soft ground.

Image: Newscom

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

The Polytrack was fast as always. Back on the turf, and the condition was listed as soft. Seven races run on synthetic, and only one wire job as off the pace types scored six times. Stalkers and closers best on the sod.

Albarado, Graham, and Leparoux each booted home a pair.

Grade 3 Woodford:  Silver Timber wore down a game Mr. Nightlinger in this prep for the BC Turf Sprint. Leparoux booted home the winner for Chad Brown.

Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America: SoCal invader Carlsbad looked home free in the stretch, but heavy fav Informed Decision rumbled on by in deep stretch under Leparoux. Jonathan Sheppard saddled the winner, who is a top contender for the BC Filly & Mare Sprint.

Grade 1 First Lady:  Diamondrella had no problem with soft turf and two turns en route to a sharp off the pace tally in this flat mile turf test. Tizaqueena gamely held the place over heavy fav Forever Together. Angel Penna Jr. saddled the IEAH runner, and Rajiv Maragh continued his sharp riding form.

Grade 1 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity: Noble’s Promise sat the right forwardly place trip and had enough to hold off Aikenite in the 8.5 furlong test for juveniles. Willie Martinez rode the winner for Ken McPeek. Don’t think Lookin At Lucky has much to worry about from this group in the BC Juvenile.

Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile: Big day for IEAH Stable as they nabbed their 2nd grade one of the day with Court Vision, who tagged Karelian by a nose. Mr. Sidney was along for the show, and Justenuffhumor never fired in a disappointing effort.

Swift Temper tries synthetic ground in Spinster

Keeneland Preview – Oct 11th

FallStars weekend concludes on Sunday with a pair of graded races, and both have Breeders’ Cup implications. Below is a preview…

Grade 3 Bourbon: Prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and Todd Pletcher has the 5-2 favorite in Interactif, who opted for this after his first choice prep was washed off the grass in New York last week. He was last seen easily capturing a graded race in his turf bow.

Grade 1 Spinster: Prep for the Ladies’ Classic, and this crew is hoping Zenyatta decides to face the gents on Cup day. Swift Temper is the 3-1 choice, but she failed to fire in her lone synthetic try and is worth trying to beat at underlaid odds.

Image: Newscom

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

The Polytrack was fast as always. The two turf races were transferred to the synthetic surface. The two 6f races favored speed. Stalkers best in the three 7f races carded. Patient runners best in the five route races on the afternoon.

Hat trick for Rajiv Maragh. Albarado also pulled off the hat trick, and he booted home a pair for trainer Ken McPeek.

Grade 3 Phoenix: Synthetic lover Fatal Bullet, the ‘08 Breeders’ Cup sprint runner-up, probably punched his ticket to Santa Anita with a game prominent throughout half-length tally. He looms a pace factor on Cup day. In contrast, 3yo gelding Capt. Candyman Can was facing older for the first time, and his lone synthetic try prior to this was a troubled 6th in a flat mile juvenile stakes event. He came flying late to just miss and deserves to head to SoCal. Ez Dreamer ran well in his synthetic bow as well.

Please enjoy this YouTube Trakus Railcast(TM) video, a 3-D animated replay that shows photo-realistic views of the race, based on the actual tracking data.

Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades: Negligee proved her synthetic prowess in Canada, and she shipped to the US for new trainer John Terranova and promptly threw her hat into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies ring with a rallying win through traffic. She Be Wild tasted defeat for the first time while clearly 2nd best. Amen Hallelujah was a wide prominent throughout threat and gamely held the show. Top three probably going to the West Coast for another tilt on Nov 6th.

Keeneland Preview – Oct 10th

No less than five graded races on tap as FallStars weekend continues on Saturday. All have Breeders’ Cup implications, and below is a preview…

Grade 3 Woodford: In this prep for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, Mr. Nightlinger is the 2-1 morning line fav, but he has lost 5 of his last 6 starts, including a poor effort in last year’s Cup.

Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America: Prep for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. All eyes will be on heavy 3-5 fav Informed Decision, who is 5 for 5 on synthetic ground and 3 for 3 at Keeneland.

Thoroughbred Club of America favorite Informed Decision

Grade 1 First Lady: This could be a big day for trainer Jonathan Sheppard. He has the aforementioned Informed Decision, and Forever Together is the defending champ of this event. Note that the latter also won the ‘08 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

Grade 1 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity: An overflow field of sixteen 2yo’s are looking to move on to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a strong showing here. Two-time graded winner Backtalk is the tepid 4-1 favorite in this wide open route.

Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile: An interested battle between Justenuffhumor, who is 6 for 6 on the turf, and Mr. Sidney, who sports a 4 for 4 record at a flat mile. A strong effort will earn a trip to the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Image: Newscom

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Extended sprint synthetic specialist Evita Argentina beat the gents last time, and she’s back with female friends in the featured Beaumont (G2). She’ll be rolling late under Garrett Gomez.

Selva is the one to catch, and Consequence needed her last and looms the value play.

Thursday (April 9th)

BC Filly & Mare Sprint winner Ventura figures an odds-on choice in the Vinery Madison (G1). Frankel trainee is deadly around one turn and won this race last year.

Informed Decision, Bear Now, and Bsharsonata are the logical alternatives should the aforementioned fav stub her toe.

Friday (April 10th)

Possible Blue Grass entrant Hello Broadway is part of a compact allowance affair on Friday, and this looks like a good confidence building spot for the well bred Tagg runner.

Friday’s feature is the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile , and Thorn Song is the one to catch and beat.

Twilight Meteor owns fine positional speed and sports the look of a solid contender.

Saturday (April 11th)

Coming to the end of the Derby prep road, and the $750k Blue Grass (G1) has a sweet graded pot for those looking to qualify for the big dance on May 2nd.

A full field is expected, including good looking Lane’s End winner Hold Me Back . The Mott trainee clearly likes synthetic and is the one to beat.

Photo Credit: newscom.com

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

A pair of Polytrack wire jobs on Saturday, with stalking types taking the bulk of the other synthetic races carded. Nothing wrong with outer lanes. Two of the three turf races were taken in wire-to-wire fashion.

Rafael Bejarano rode four winners on Saturday afternoon, including two stakes, and Robby Albarado also booted home a pair of stakes winners. Dale Romans saddled two winners on the card.

Sing Baby Sing stalked the pace and upset the apple cart in the 156th running of the Grade 3 Phoenix. 3-2 fav Talent Search saved the place by a neck over Keeneland specialist Carnacks Choice. The winner completed the 6f synthetic test in 1:08.48.

Chamberlain Bridge pulled off a wire job upset over Smart Enough in the 12th running of the Woodford, a five and one-half furlong turf sprint.

Square Eddie was a razor sharp winner of the Grade 1 Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity. The much the best overseas two-year-old went 8.5f in 1:43.04 and paid $20.20. Doug O’Neill is expected to take over the training duties, and he figures to take a crack at the BC Juvenile if all goes according to plan. I have added a replay of this race below, courtesy of YouTube.

Thorn Song was a strong wire-to-wire winner over fast closing 9f specialist Shakis in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile. War Monger sat a nice stalking trip and lost 2nd on the line.

Indyanne got back on the winning track with a gritty wire-to-wire head victory over defending champ Wild Gams in the Grade 3 Thoroughbred Club of America. She ran the 6f over Polytrack in 1:08.50, and the Greg Gilchrist trainee might return to her NoCal base to prepare for the BC Filly & Mare Sprint.

SUNDAY PREVIEW

Sunday’s 10-race card features a Pick 6 carryover of $121,430. The feature race is the $500,000 Grade 1 Spinster for fillies and mares traveling nine furlongs on Polytrack.

Multiple graded winner Unbridled Belle, trained by Todd Pletcher, is the 2-1 morning line fav, and note that this will be her first synthetic start.

Godolphin runner Little Belle won the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland and is the 5-1 2nd choice.

Sharp Susan should sit a decent stalking trip for Bill Mott, and Wake Up Maggie, Indescribable, Model, Carriage Trail, Jiboom, Say You Will, and Rosinka have all won on synthetic in the past.

This wide open Sunday feature is my racingonthenet free selection of the day.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Forever Together powerfully mowed down Precious Kitten in Friday’s other BC prep, the flat mile First Lady for grassy fillies and mares. Below is the replay, courtesy of YouTube.

Now, let’s glance at Saturday’s Cup preps…

Grade 3 Phoenix – six furlongs (polytrack)

Six of the 12 entrants are multiple synthetic winners, not including 2-1 fav Talent Search. Plenty of pace in the paper race could set things up for an off the pace type. Carnacks Choice is the lone local winner, and he is 2-2 in Keeneland synthetic sprints.

The $150k Woodford – 5.5 furlongs (turf)
This is not a graded affair, but it could produce a few starters for the new BC Turf sprint at 6.5f over Santa Anita’s downhill course. Smart Enough is a classy turf sprinter with 10 wins in 16 starts, and the fresh gelding is only making his 2nd start this year.

Grade 1 Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity – 8.5 furlongs (polytrack)

Wide open two-year-old route has attracted 11 horses, with Todd Pletcher’s Advice the tepid 7-2 fav. Ken McPeek won the filly edition of this race on Friday. He does not have one in here, but his winning turf/synthetic angle is present with Bill Mott’s Pioneerof the Nile.

Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile – 8 furlongs (turf)
Shakis drew the rail and is the 7-2 fav, but all of his US wins have come at 9 furlongs, and he might come up a tad short at a sharp flat mile. Thorn Song is probably the one to catch, and classy Woodbine shipper Rahy’s Attorney must work out a trip from the outside post.

Grade 3 Thoroughbred Club of America – six furlongs (polytrack)
Sugar Swirl is the 3-1 favorite, and she does own a synthetic win, but she did lose this race last year and could get overbet. Indyanne will attempt a wire job from the rail, and Wild Gams is the defending champ.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

The Grade 1 $400k First Lady – One Mile (turf)
There seems to be plenty of pace present with Dreaming of Anna, Roshani, Bayou’s Lassie, and Rosinka. 2-1 favorite Precious Kitten projects a nice ground saving stalking trip, but this race might boil down to a couple of late running New Yorkers, 4-1 Rutherienne and 6-1 Forever Together.

Forever Together beat Rutherienne in the Grade 1 Diana at nine furlongs, and she has earned triple digit ratings in both of her grade one starts. She was an okay 3rd when last seen over yielding ground at Woodbine.

Rutherienne has rallied to finish 3rd in last 4 outings. She reunites with Garrett Gomez, who rides her well, and she has been overbet numerous times while never earning particularly fast speed ratings.

Precious Kitten was a close 2nd in this race last year. She’s capable of huge efforts and has been part of exacta in all five starts at a flat mile. She projects the first run trip.

I have added a replay of the 2008 Grade 1 Diana from the Spa, courtesy of YouTube.

The Grade 1 $500k Darley Alcibiades – 8.5 furlongs (polytrack)

Dream Empress was my selection in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies on Sept. 27th, but trainer Ken McPeek scratched in favor of this spot. She was much improved in 2nd out turf route win with lasix. She was favored in both starts, and barn is 20% turf/synthetic. Note that she owns a couple of Keeneland bullets for this and appears primed to run past this group.

Amanwella owns strong distance breeding with Fusaichi Pegasus on top and Strom Cat on bottom, and the promising maiden exits a clear place finish behind today’s rival Devotee from post 11 at the Spa. Graham Motion is 26% sprint/route.

Be Smart is a $325k Keeneland sales grad out of Derby-Preakness winner Smarty Jones, and she was a surprise $100 first out winner in a 5.5f MSW race at the Spa for D Wayne Lucas. She adds lasix and attracts Garrett Gomez for her initial two turn attempt.

Mani Bhavan won a slow renewal of Saratoga’s Grade 1 Spinaway It took over 14 seconds to cover the final furlong of that seven panel affair. All three of her wins were accomplished in conventional dirt sprints, and today’s Polytrack route is a whole new ballgame for the likely underlay.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Todd Pletcher finally qualified for the Derby with a Monba/Cowboy Cal 1-2 Blue Grass finish last Saturday, and he has two more entered in the Lexington, including race favorite Atoned.

The consistent Dogwood Stable colt raced seven times as a juvenile, and he was part of the exacta on six occasions. He came back better than ever in a close-up place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby, then got no pace help in a better than appears fourth in the Illinois Derby. His local Polytrack work was strong, and he will get the proper race shape today. Huge shot if he handles the synthetic footing.

Pletcher’s other entrant Behindatthebar has won his last two synthetic starts at Santa Anita, and David Flores is in from California to ride. He also shows a nice local drill and is listed at 12-1 on the line.

Racecar Rhapsody is one to fear in the stretch at 9-2. Well-bred colt looked good in a pair of Keeneland sprints to kick off his career, and he followed that up with a nice show finish in his graded bow at Churchill. An even fourth in another graded route followed, and yet another even fourth ensued in his first three-year-old start in Turfway’s Lane’s End. He surely needed his last and can move forward at a hint of a price.

Salute The Sarge is an early/pressing contender from post two. He is a very dangerous sprinter and probably does not want to run a step farther than this (8.5 furlongs). He sits 21st on the graded earnings list and needs an exacta finish and more furlongs under his belt.

Tomcito brought an impressive South American record to this country, and he was hardly disgraced in a distant third place effort in the Florida Derby. He can run all day and should continue to develop as he acclimates to his new surroundings.

Samba Rooster and St. Joe will keep the pace honest. Felon exits a sharp maiden tally. Big Glen won the Rushaway in his latest, and Riley Tucker exits a fine second in a local course/distance stakes affair. Recent maiden winner Red Sandy (D Wayne Lucas) rounds out the field.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

The sixth race is an allowance turf route for three-year-olds, and Texas Fever has a shot from the outside post. His grass bow in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf was not bad. He did not try the sod again until his last, and he was a close-up 3rd in a better effort. Gomez rode him in the ‘Cup, and it is good to see him back aboard. Turf routing appears to be his game, and I like his chances at 6-1 on the line.

Wednesday’s Turf feature is the Grade 3 Appalachian for three-year-old fillies traveling a flat mile, and Much Obliged is an enticing 5-1 on the morning line.

Daughter of Kingmambo, out of a Strawberry Road dam, figured to relish turf routes, and she did not disappoint in two straight easy flat mile turf wins at Fair Grounds. She obviously faces tougher today, but the promising sort may be up to the task, and I like the fact that Albarado jumps off solid contender Sweepstake in favor of the Malcolm Pierce runner.

The aforementioned Sweepstake is talented and versatile, and she might get brave if able to sneak away early. Note that her two main pace rivals are stuck on the AE list, and if neither draws in, look out below!

The wide open Appalachian also includes dangerous late runner I Lost My Choo and $600k Mott returnee Namaste’s Wish.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever