Pace makes the race, and Charitable Man looms the one to catch. He is 3-3 on conventional dirt and 2-2 at Belmont. He pulled off a wire job in 6.5f career bow and is capable of rating should another rival get aggressive.

Miner’s Escape does not appear as swift as Charitable Man, but the improving sort exits a pair of prominent throughout nine furlong tallies. Remember that Nick Zito trainee Da’ Tara pulled off a wire job upset in this race last year.

The expected tepid early pace may hurt the chances of Mine That Bird, but the SoCal synthetic horses are used to such a race shape, so keep an eye on Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff. The former owns striking range positional speed, while the latter is more of a one-run sort.

Breeding matters in the Test of Champions, and a couple of past winners have offspring in this event.

2004 hero Birdstone is represented by Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird and Summer Bird. 1999 winner Lemon Drop Kid has pace threat Charitable Man.

Ten Most Wanted finished 2nd in the 2003 Belmont, and his son Luv Gov is set to contest the ‘09 renewal.

Chocolate Candy has a strong pedigree. His sire Candy Ride won the 10f Pacific Classic in 2003, and damsire Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown in 1977. He also has 1978 Triple Crown runner-up Alydar playing a prominent role on the female side.

Dunkirk has a speed sire (Unbridled’s Song) and a stamina damsire (A.P. Indy). He has a ton of upside with only four starts under his belt.

Flying Private has a Derby winner (Fusaichi Pegasus-Unbridled) on both sides of his pedigree, but the Belmont will be his 9th start this year.

Miner’s Escape has the speed as mentioned above, and he has some pedigree power with Mineshaft-A.P. Indy on top and Broad Brush on bottom.

Mr. Hot Stuff lacks speed but makes up for it in the pedigree department. Colonel John’s baby brother (Tiznow-Turkoman) should run all day.

I’ll give the breeding award to Chocolate Candy, and Charitable Man wins the pace paper race. Miner’s Escape is the longshot special.

Image: Newscom

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Mine That Bird is currently training at Churchill for his upcoming Belmont engagement. Mike Smith has a prior riding commitment in SoCal, and Borel will stick with Rachel Alexandra if she goes, so Chip Woolley still needs a pilot for his Derby winner. Expect a jockey to be named early next week.

It wouldn’t be the Belmont without Nick Zito , and two of his probables worked in company on May 21st.

Peter Pan show finisher Brave Victory got his four furlongs in :48.55, and stablemate and Tesio winner Miner’s Escape was right with him at :48.56.

Zito could also be represented by Nowhere To Hide. Chocolate Candy , Dunkirk, Flying Private, Luv Gov, Mr. Hot Stuff, and Summer Bird are also Belmont bound.

Image: Newscom

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Musket Man won his 1st three sprint starts and was hardly disgraced in Sam Davis show finish (post 9) at this distance here last time. He projects a ground saving stalking trip at playable odds. He sports a pair of local bullets for this, and note that he defeated Sam Davis winner General Quarters on Jan 17th. Leading rider Daniel Centeno hops aboard.

Sumo (Fusaichi Pegasus) finished a clear 2nd from disadvantageous outer post in Sam Davis. Graham Motion trainee is on the improve and lands a better post for this. He reunites with winning pilot Jeremy Rose and could easily find the winners’ circle today.

Nowhere To Hide is on the upswing for Nick Zito (pictured) since adding blinkers, and he chose this over the Louisiana Derby. $250k Keenland sales grad has the right stalking style.

Hello Broadway (Broken Vow) did all of the dirty work in Hutcheson return. Barclay Tagg runner tries a route of ground for the 1st time and figures in the thick of things throughout if he handles this tricky surface. He earned triple digit figs in his last two and sports a Gulfstream bullet for this.

General Quarters (Sky Mesa) exits a sharp Sam Davis score (replay below) versus similar, but a few key post switches could leave him losing ground this time.

Bear’s Rocket tried dirt for the first time and promptly finished 2nd in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Jan 31st. He’s an outside speed presence at the very least.

Warrior’s Reward landed the place behind Todd Pletcher’s promising Derby hopeful Dunkirk at the Gulf last time. Stretch runner should get pace to chase.

Join In The Dance (Sky Mesa) returned from a layoff to finish 2nd behind subsequent Gotham runner-up Imperial Council in a Gulfstream sprint last time. Todd Pletcher’s colt looms the one to catch, but as I stated earlier, it is tough to wire the field at this distance.

Top Seed is once again hung out to dry in outside post. He is 3-3 sprinting and might be better around one turn.

Justdontcallmejeri is a consistent SoCal shipper for Doug O’Neill, who claimed this one for $32k in November. He gives dirt a whirl and remains eligible for an entry level spot.

Perfect Bull drew the rail and goes turf/dirt. He owns the lowest speed ratings and would have to improve leaps and bounds to compete here.

Top 3 Selections: (1) Musket Man, (2) Sumo, (3) Nowhere To Hide

Longshot To Watch: Warrior’s Reward

Photo Credit: newscom.com

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Flying Pegasus ran a huge race to land the place off a layoff while wide from 12-hole in Risen Star. Albarado abandons for Patena, but Johnny V is an ample sub. Ralph Nicks is 21% 2nd off a layoff, and he can compete here if able to avoid a bounce.

Friesan Fire goes for a sweep of the Fair Grounds graded schedule. After wasting too much early energy in an entry level loss to Uno Mas in December, he relaxed nicely and parlayed stalking trips into Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G3) wins. Son of A.P. Indy sports a local bullet for this, and this could be a big weekend for Larry Jones as he has Rebel fav Old Fashioned going on Saturday as well.

Papa Clem is the wildcard. Synthetic specialist was beaten a 1/2 length by Pioneerof The Nile in the Robert Lewis Stakes (replay below), and he outfinished subsequent Gotham winner I Want Revenge that day. Early/pressing type is working well for this, and top notch jockey Rafael Bejarano strings along. Gary Stute is 0-15 in graded races and 21% with horses moving from synthetic to dirt.

Giant Oak finished a troubled 5th as the overbet fav in a needed Risen Star effort. He should move forward but could be one of those late running trouble prone types. Note that his two wins occurred on turf and synthetic.

Free Country exits disappointing 4th in graded event at Tampa Bay, but some horses do not handle that surface, so he could rebound with blinkers today. Kent D/McPeek are 30% together, and he sports a pair of Gulfstream bullets for this.

Soul Warrior showed no speed in 6th place Risen Star effort, and Steve Asmussen adds the hood in hopes of getting him focused and involved earlier. He reunites with barn $$ rider Shaun Bridgmohan.

Uno Mas finished 3rd in the Risen Star and 4th in the Lecomte after upsetting Friesan Fire in a local allowance race on Dec 18th.

Nowhere To Hide ran better than expected in even 4th (Risen Star), but he had a good inner post that day, and he’s on the outside looking in today. Just like countless others, the Nick Zito (pictured) runner enters off a bullet work.

Terrain has not been seen since flopping as the fav in Delta Jackpot (G3) on Dec 5th. Al Stall Jr. is 40% blinkers off, but note that this one has lost all four of his starts at a mile or longer. Leparoux hops aboard and he sports a pair of local bullets, but I’ll give the returnee a race.

Top 3 Selections: (1) Patena, (2) Flying Pegasus, (3) Friesan Fire

Longshot To Watch: Free Country

Tomorrow, I will take a look at the San Felipe Stakes.

Photo Credit: newscom.com

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Main track favored speed as the day wore on. Both turf sprints were nabbed by early/pressing types, and the flat mile turf feature was nabbed by a longshot stalker.

James Graham, Miguel Mena and Jamie Theriot each booted home a pair. Bret Calhoun and Eric Guillot both saddled two winners on the day.

Saturday (2-7-09) Fair Grounds recap

Both surfaces seemed to play fair.

Hat trick for Gabriel Saez included a pair of stakes wins for Larry Jones. John Jacinto booted home a pair, and Briggy/Asmussen teamed up two wins on the day.

Pan Zareta Stakes – 6 furlongs

Scratched down to four horses, Precious Kiss rallied from last to wear down Asmussen fav Classify.

The Colonel Power – 5.5 furlongs (turf)

Chamberlain Bridge brought his A game and turned the tables on Asmussen trainee Storm Treasure in a sharp wire job.

Mineshaft Hcp (G3) – 8.5 furlongs

Honest Man (Saez/Jones) sat a nice stalking trip and was a comfortable 4-1/4 length winner. Graded winners My Pal Charlie and Grasshopper both disappointed off layoffs.

Fair Grounds Hcp (G3) – 9 furlongs (turf)

Diamond Tycoon uncorked a strong late kick for a going away winner over 2-1 fav Windward Isands. Corrupt finished a solid 3rd in a needed outing.

Silverbulletday (G3) – 8.5 furlongs

Asumssen returnee War Echo returned in the pink in a sharp off the pace tally over Four Gifts. The top two were well clear of the others.

The Risen Star (G3)

In a replay of the Lecomte, Friesan Fire (Saez/Jones) sat a fine stalking trip and proved too much for the others. Flying Pegasus ran a huge race from post 12 to land the place. He was trying a route in his 1st start since September, and he’s one to watch on the Derby trail. Uno Mas (Asmussen), Nowhere To Hide (Zito) and Giant Oak (traffic) ran okay, with the overbet latter needing the effort. Indygo Mountain (7th) and Au Moon (post 13) both disappointed.

Sunday (2-8-09) Fair Grounds preview

Sunday’s 10-race card includes a Pick 6 (race 5-10) carryover of $26,354.

Weather: Partly cloudy. High 70.

Race 5: Mizzen’s Wake (6-1) is on the upswing and continues to climb the maiden class ladder. Mizzen Mast is a fine grass sire, and Wally Dollase is a profitable 20% 1st turf. Profitable 16% turf rider Miguel Mena hops back aboard, and he’s 2-6 with this outfit.

Race 9: Talkin Indian (4-1) is 2-9 lifetime, and both wins were earned at this course/distance. She was a bit flat in a regression last time, and this looks like a prime rebound candidate 3rd race off the shelf under new pilot Robby Albarado. Below is a replay of his Dec 7th local turf tally.

Photo Credit: newscom.com

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Indygo Mountain (A. P. Indy) rates a shot to rebound at a price. Bret Calhoun trainee was sensational in his Nov. ‘08 Churchill maiden breaker, then the wheels fell off the cart. Foot issues caused him to be scratched at the gate before a local allowance race in December, and he experienced a troubled beginning when resurfacing in the Lecomte. $600k Keeneland sales grad shows a strong 5f work for this and can right the ship with a strong showing here. Theriot strings along.

Friesan Fire (A. P. Indy) tries to keep the momentum going following a perfect trip Lecomte (G3) tally (replay below). He seems more focused since adding blinkers and is an obvious low odds threat for Larry Jones.

It Happened Again (Proud Citizen) rates a longshot look as he tries a route of ground for the first time. He earned quality speed ratings in both sprint wins, and the other Larry Jones runner could surprise.

Au Moon (Malibu Moon) drew a tough post for this. He surprisingly set the pace in the Lecomte, but he figures to revert to patient tactics today, especially from this post. $130k Keeneland sales grad broke his maiden at nine furlongs and should continue to improve as distances increase.

Giant Oak (Giant’s Causeway) fired on turf, synthetic, and dirt last year, including a fine graded effort versus Beethoven and recent Hutcheson (G2) winner Capt. Candyman Can at Churchill when last seen in November. Late runner sports a pair of local bullets but might need the outing. Edgar Prado is in from Florida to ride.

Dumar (Maria’s Mon) is on the upswing, and he’s a 2-time route winner. $105k purchase will need to keep improving to threaten these. Barn $$ rider Shaun Bridgmohan had his pick of the three Asmussen runners, and he ends up here.

Uno Mas (Macho Uno) finished a disappointing 4th in the Lecomte, a race in which the Asmussen runner failed to get pace help. $150k Keeneland sales grad sports a bullet for this and can challenge for a trifecta spot.

Soul Warrior (Lion Heart) is the 3rd and final Asmussen runner. He exits a sharp local maiden route win as the heavy fav. I’ll watch him in this much tougher spot. PVal hops aboard.

Flying Pegasus showed promise as a juvenile, but he has not seen seen since Sept. ‘08. Speedy son of Fusaichi Pegasus looms a pace player under Albarado, but he figures to need the outing as he tries two turns for the first time.

Map of the World, a $500k son of Hennessy, breaks from the rail for Al Stall Jr. He rallied for the show at even money in a local allowance race last time, and he needs to step it up 3rd race off the shelf.

Nowhere To Hide (Vindication) added blinkers and graduated in 5th career start at Calder for Zito. He is not fast enough to threaten stakes foes at this stage.

Summer’s Empire (Empire Maker) has won three straight main track routes, and the Illinois bred gets the acid test today.

Code of Honour (Omega Code) rounds out the field and looms a pace factor as he stretches back out, but note that he was trounced by Friesan Fire and Uno Mas in a local allowance race (Dec 18th).

Photo Credit: newscom.com

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

The Barclay Tagg trainee kicked off his career with a neck victory at Saratoga last August, then finished an okay 5th when thrown to the wolves in the Champagne (G1).

He bounced back with a game place finish behind today’s rival Break Water Edison when last seen in Aqueduct’s Nashua (G3), and this is a perfect starting point for his Derby march.

Break Water Edison had a busy juvenile campaign with four stakes appearances, and he finally got over the hump in the aformentioned Nashua. $525k son of Lemon Drop Kid lands the disadvantageous rail, and note that his worst two efforts last year were from the inside post.

Capt. Candyman Can fired in all three conventional dirt starts last year, and trainer Ian Wilkes is a profitable 20% with this type of returnee. Grade three winner has the pace/speed ratings to compete here.

Salo Jack is 3-3 at this specialty distance, and he could surprise with the main players using this as a prep.

Rocketing Returns is on the upswing for Nick Zito, and he caught a talented crew for his stakes bow.

Bee Cee Cee has lost five straight since beginning his career with a pair of wins. The speedy Z Day rounds out the field, and note that it is a tough task to pull off a wire job at this distance.

Eariler on the card, three-year-old fillies take center stage in the seven panel Forward Gal (G2). Gemswick Park and Frolic’s Dream, the 1-3 Old Hat (G3) finishers, figure to take the bulk of the action. Note that Old Hat place finisher Elusive Heat came back to roll in a big way at the Gulf yesterday.

Photo Credit: newscom.com

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

The promising Lieutenant Ron landed the outside post and has been installed as the 6-5 morning line favorite for Saturday’s nine furlong $100k Grade 3 Discovery Handicap at Aqueduct Race Track in New York.

The Kiaran McLaughlin three-year-old has won three of his four sprint starts by a combined 20+ lengths, with his lone loss a show finish at six furlongs following a troubled start off a layoff. The West Point Thoroughbreds ridgling son of Graeme Hall makes his graded stakes bow while trying a route of ground for the first time. He is 2-2 at the Big A and will make his presence felt throughout at low odds. He earned triple digit speed ratings in his three wins, and anything approaching that plateau will make him one tough customer. Alan Garcia has a return call.

That’srightofficer is a New York bred with an improving speed rating pattern. He has landed the place in three straight at this distance and could surprise today’s open company under regular pilot Edgar Prado.

Premium Gold is an enigmatic sort. It took him six tries to graduate, and he did it in style at Monmouth. He was dusted in his first start versus winners at the Spa, then came back to roll at that same venue in his next outing. A layoff followed, and he finished 5th in his Pegasus (G3) return. Well bred $400k purchase is versatile and earned a triple digit speed rating in an optional claiming win at this distance.

Big Truck has lost five straight since his upset win in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Barclay Tagg is 22% with horses moving from turf to dirt, and Eibar Coa has options with the versatile sort.

Ready Set has been productive in a few similar graded events, including a win in the West Virginia Derby (G3) and a nose defeat in the Pegasus (G3) last time. $800k Keeneland sales grad will be finishing.

Web Gem is 0-10 this year and will almost certainly be overbet for Nick Zito at 9-2 on the line. Well bred $170k Keeneland sales grad is best used underneath if at all. Note that his lone win in 15 outings did occur here.

Wishful Tomcat has won two straight on the grass and four of his last five. Dominguez rides the speedster well, be he could be compromised early and often by the fleet Lieutenant Ron.

Coach Shaw rounds out the field at 20-1, and the consistent late runner is riding a six-race trifecta streak. He reunites with Eddie Castro, who booted him home in August, and the Mark Hennig trainee appears capable of rallying for a minor share.

Photo Credit: Newscom

Below is a YouTube replay of Lieutenant Ron breezing.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

The Stronach Stables colt won the first three starts of his career, all around one-turn, including a razor sharp Withers (G3) tally at this distance with a 106 BSF.

The Ontario-bred was immediately prepared for the Queen’s Plate, but he failed to handle synthetic ground in his Woodbine prep, so those plans were scrapped. He ended up winning the $500k Prince of Wales at 9.5f in July, than it was back to the US to prepare for the Travers.

He ended up an even 4th in the ten furlong Mid-summer Derby, and he is not quite the same horse at or around the ten furlong distance. He is 2-2 at a flat mile and can nab his 2nd graded prize in this spot.

Pletcher also trains Z Humor, an uncoupled stablemate previously conditioned by Bill Mott. He has lost all six of his 2008 starts after a dead-heat score in the Delta Jackpot (G3) to end his juvenile season.

Tale of Ekati sports the look of a live wire at this shorter trip. He is 2-3 at Big Sandy, with his lone setback a stalk and fade in the Test of Champions. He has not been able to make a dent in graded routes, with the lone exception being his Wood Memorial (G2) win at Belmont. At 9-2, he looks like the value play.

Da’ Tara scratched out of Friday night’s Meadowlands Cup, and the surprise Belmont Stakes hero looms the controlling speed today. He returns to the scene of his greatest triumph but will not offer much value, especially with the coupling of Cool Coal Man. The latter, winner of the Fountain of Youth (G2) in February, owns fine tactical speed.

Visionaire has won two straight since donning the hood and cutting back in distance. He will be finishing under Alan Garcia, and note that the 5-2 shot is 2-2 at a flat mile.

You And I Forever was wide from post 13 in the PA Derby last time. He was steadily improving before that, and he ran subsequent Travers (G1) runner-up Mambo In Seattle to a neck at the Spa in July.

Top 3 selections: (1st) Tale of Ekati, (2nd) Harlem Rocker, (3rd) You And I Forever

Below is a YouTube replay of the 2008 Travers, featuring Harlem Rocker, Da’ Tara, Cool Coal Man, and Tale of Ekati.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Past the Point (Indian Charlie-AP Indy) is a vastly improved Darley Stable 4yo, and his trainer Eoin Harty is already loaded for bear in the BC Classic with Goodwood winner Well Armed and Travers hero Colonel John, both owned by WinStar Farm.

Past the Point showed promise as a three-year-old with a solid show finish in the 2007 Super Derby. He then disappointed in a pair of Polytrack races and a flat mile turf event. He returned with a sharp allowance win at the Spa, and today’s rival True Resurgence came out of that heat to win an allowance of his own at Saratoga.

The Eoin Harty charge was thrown to the wolves in the Woodward, and he set a swift pace at 40-1 before getting run down in the late stages by reigning Horse of the Year Curlin. Wanderin Boy finished 3rd, and the aforementioned 1-3 finishers flattered the Woodward results by returning to finish 1-2 in the JC Gold Cup at Belmont Park last weekend.

Johnny V, who booted him home in that August 3rd allowance score, has the call today, and expect aggressive handling over a well-known speed conducive oval. Can he run another quality race away from the Spa? That’s the burning question.

Arson Squad was on his way to a productive career following a victory in the 2007 Strub over conventional dirt, but the SoCal tracks mandated synthetic footing, and he struggled in seven subsequent starts for Bruce Headley.

Richard Dutrow has him now, and he returns to preferred dirt footing. He might need some time to get his confidence back, and it would be nice to see him get his career back on track. Prado rode Past the Point last time, but he ends up on this interesting entrant.

Timber Reserve won the 2007 PA Derby, and he came back to that form with a sharp optional claiming tally at Saratoga last time. John Kimmel trainee chose this spot over the JC Gold Cup, and he projects a tracking trip under Kent D.

Da’ Tara shocked the world in the Belmont Stakes. He tanked in the Jim Dandy, than returned to set the pace and finished a respectable 5th in the Travers. Three-year-olds still have much to prove versus older, and he seemingly needs to set a controlled tempo for his best. Nick Zito has done some damage with early runners in graded races this year (Commentator, Coal Play, Da’ Tara, Wanderin Boy).

Zito also has late running sophomore Anak Nakal, the 2008 PA Derby hero and Belmont Stakes show finisher. The plodding type can rally for a minor award under Joe Bravo.

Actin Good won a graded event in the slop last year and exits an optional claiming tally versus four foes. Stalking type is a bit light on speed ratings.

PV Lightening exits a sharp score in the slop, but the Maryland bred seemingly needs restricted company to fire his best shot.

Below is a replay of the 2008 Woodward Stakes from Saratoga, courtesy of YouTube.

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever