The two main elements in predicting the ‘09 Belmont Stakes outcome are pedigree and pace handicapping.
Pace makes the race, and Charitable Man looms the one to catch. He is 3-3 on conventional dirt and 2-2 at Belmont. He pulled off a wire job in 6.5f career bow and is capable of rating should another rival get aggressive.
Miner’s Escape does not appear as swift as Charitable Man, but the improving sort exits a pair of prominent throughout nine furlong tallies. Remember that Nick Zito trainee Da’ Tara pulled off a wire job upset in this race last …read more

Saturday’s $300k Rebel Stakes is the final local prep for the Arkansas Derby. The 8.5 furlong graded event has drawn a field of 9, and Old Fashioned is the 7-5 morning line choice.

The aforementioned Larry Jones (shown w/Wayne Lukas) trained fav is undefeated in four lifetime starts, and the $800k son of Unbridled’s Song owns fine early/pressing speed. I am not sure how much farther Old Fashioned wants to run, but he is effective at this distance and could easily make it five straight.
Wise Kid owns a strong pedigree (Lemon Drop Kid-Seeking The Gold), and he has won two …read more

Saturday’s $300k Tampa Bay Derby has drawn an interesting field of 11, and note that there have only been two wire jobs in 61 races conducted at 8.5f. Stalk and pounce types perform best, and I will look for value contenders with the right running style.
Musket Man won his 1st three sprint starts and was hardly disgraced in Sam Davis show finish (post 9) at this distance here last time. He projects a ground saving stalking trip at playable odds. He sports a pair of local bullets for this, and note that he defeated Sam Davis winner General Quarters …read more

The $200k San Felipe is the final major local prep for the Santa Anita Derby (April 4th), and the lone stakes winner (Pioneerof The Nile) looms a standout in the field of seven.

Pioneerof The Nile has won his last two graded synthetic routes at this distance (8.5f) since moving to the Bob Baffert barn, and today’s pilot Garrett Gomez is 2-2 with him. The son of Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker does not have to win this as he has more than enough graded earnings to make it into the Derby starting gate, but the class of the field …read more

Thursday (3-5-09) Fair Grounds recap
Both surfaces seemed to play fair.
Brian Hernandez Jr., Lonnie Meche, and Jamie Theriot each booted home a pair. Two more wins for Briggy/Asmussen.
Hallway (Briggy/Asmussen) smartly nabbed the optional claiming turf feature for Louisiana breds. Oro Tributo lunged at the start and missed the place by a 1/2 and a head. Sib to Tortuga Flats deserves another chance.
Friday (3-6-09) Fair Grounds preview
Weather: Partly cloudy. High 77.
Race 5: Spider Power (4-1) has fired in six straight and earned triple digit late pace figs in his last three local turf outings. PVal got to know him …read more

Before I take a look at Super Bowl Sunday’s graded races, let’s review the big events run this week at the Gulf.

Thursday (1-29-09):
Old Hat (G3) runner-up Elusive Heat (Elusive Quality-Xtra Heat) won a 6f allowance race as Alan Garcia pleased and stopped the clock in a rapid 1:08.94. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee is definitely headed back to the stakes ranks, and I would not want to tussle with the fleet miss around one turn.
Friday (1-30-09):
Old Hat (G3) show finisher Frolic’s Dream (Smoke Glacken) rebounded to nab the seven panel Forward Gal (G2) by 2.5 easy lengths. …read more

Saturday’s nine furlong Holy Bull (G3) is the longest Kentucky Derby prep so far, and eleven sophomores have signed up for the challenge.
Danger To Society (Harlan’s Holiday) is 2-2 for Robby Albarado/Ken McPeek, and he exits a smart course/distance tally off a layoff. He owns fine positional speed and lands an advantageous inner post.

Idol Maker (Empire Maker) has been on my radar screen since his upset flat mile debut win at Belmont. He hooked the fleet Old Fashioned in the Remsen (G2) 2nd time out, and he probably needed his local allowance prep for this. Todd Pletcher’s $310k …read more

Eclipse Awards
Curlin repeated as Horse of the Year at the Eclipse Award ceremonies. The recently retired all-time North American money earner stands at Lane’s End Farm with a $75k stud fee. Undefeated miss Zenyatta took home Older Female honors.

Big Brown was unanimously voted 3yo Champion, and Proud Spell took down 3yo filly honors over her late stablemate Eight Belles.
As expected, Midshipman is the Juvenile Champ, and Stardom Bound nabbed Juvenile Filly honors.
The other equine Eclipse Awards went to Conduit (Turf Male), Forever Together (Turf Female), Benny the Bull (Male Sprinter), Indian Blessing (Female Sprinter), and Good Night …read more

Thursday (1-22-09) Fair Grounds recap
Edge to early/pressing types on the main. A wire job in one of the two turf sprints, and the lone turf route was nabbed by a late runner.
James Graham booted home a pair.
Mad Flatter (Flatter) was a sharp winner of the salty optional claiming 8th race, defeating quality rivals Stungbythestorm, Smokeyjonessutton, and King of Speed.
Friday (1-23-09) Fair Grounds preview
Friday’s 10-race card includes a trio of grass races, and there is a small Pick 6 carryover of $2,557.
Weather: Mostly sunny. High 74.
Race 3: Yare (6-1) is an above average sales purchase out …read more

A field of eight is set to contest the flat mile Grade 3 San Rafael (race 7) at Santa Anita on Saturday, and Square Eddie is the one to topple.

Square Eddie made an immediate impact when sent to the US in the fall of 2008, as he rolled to a sharp win over Keeneland’s Polytrack in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity.
The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was next on his dance card, and he ran a big race to land the place behind likely 2yo champ Midshipman.
The son of Smart Strike ran six times last year, so he …read more