Two horses have dropped from the original list, including Homeboykris. The Rick Dutrow trainee was a disappointing 5^th in the Remsen on Nov 28^th. Thiskyhasnolimit, 6^th in the Kentucky Jockey Club, is also gone from the top ten.

A couple of new shooters have been added to the honorable mention list, starting with Rule. The Todd Pletcher trainee was the 3^rd WinStar Farm colt to win a graded event in the past few weeks. The other two (American Lion, Super Saver) are part of my top ten, and the recent Delta Jackpot (G3) winner is knocking on the door after his wire job win on Dec 5^th.  He added $450k in graded earnings for his winning effort, and that will be more than enough to get him into the Derby starting gate. He will winter in Florida, and his next start has yet to be determined.

William’s Kitten is also one to keep an eye on. The late striding colt was on my radar screen following a visually impressive tally in the off the turf Sunday Silence at Louisiana Downs. A pair of below par synthetic efforts followed, and he returned to conventional dirt with a clear place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) on Nov 28^th.

William's Kitten shown in Louisiana Downs winners' circle. He rallied for the place in Kentucky Jockey club Stakes on Nov 28th.

1. Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) – Tasted defeat for the first time in the BC Juvenile, but he raced wide from the outside post and just missed in an excellent effort. Expect the likely 2yo champ to follow a similar path as last year’s Derby runner-up Pioneerof The Nile (also Baffert). CashCall Futurity on Dec 19th is next.

2. Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil) – Rolled through the Florida Stallion series, and he will be given every opportunity to make the Derby under the care of new trainer Nick Zito. Look for him at Gulfstream this winter.

3. Noble’s Promise (Cuvee) – Breeders’ Futurity hero had 3-race win streak snapped with BC Juvenile show finish. Ken McPeek has the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park on Dec 19th pegged as his next engagement.

4. Vale Of York (Invincible Spirit) – Surprise BC Juvenile winner brought good turf form to Santa Anita, and he proved he could handle synthetic ground. Godolphin runner is not bred for dirt, but the new track in Dubai (synthetic) should suit him.

5. Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway) – Found much early trouble in BC Juvenile, so his 9th place effort can be forgiven. Had been training well leading up to the Cup, and he’ll get a chance to rebound in the CashCall Futurity. Broke maiden on conventional dirt in Pilgrim Stakes.

6. American Lion (Tiznow) – Followed up his sharp Keeneland maiden win with a solid score in the Hollywood Prevue (G3) on Nov 21st. Eoin Harty trains the WinStar Farms colt, and he goes next in the CashCall Futurity.

7. Super Saver (Maria’s Mon) – Moved up from my honorable mention list to the 7^th spot in the top ten with a strong wire job victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill. The Todd Pletcher (WinStar Farm) trainee should only improve with distance and experience.

8. Interactif (Broken Vow) - Made a name for himself on the grass and was last seen finishing a rock solid 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Broke maiden in career bow on the main track, and the versatile Pletcher trainee has been sent to Florida to prepare for his 3yo campaign.

9. Buddy’s Saint (Saint Liam) – Followed up his romping Nashua (G2) tally with another easy score in the Remsen (G2). He is based in New York with trainer Bruce Levine. He will winter in Florida with the Wood Memorial as his early spring goal.

10. Dave In Dixie (Dixie Union) - Looked great in Del Mar debut, and he was not disgraced (6th) versus graded foes in the Norfolk 2nd time out. John Sadler wisely kept him out of the Cup, and he is one to watch for down the road.

Honorable Mention: Aikenite (Todd Pletcher), Dublin (Wayne Lukas), Rule (Todd Pletcher), Soaring Empire (Cam Gambalati), William’s Kitten (Michael Maker)

Image: Stacy Edwards

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

In compiling this early list, I looked for proven graded class and strong breeding, but I also wanted to use promising, lightly raced sorts on the way up. Much will change in the coming weeks, but I had to start somewhere. Please click on the name of each horse to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes news, pedigree, results, and video.

1. Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) – Tasted defeat for the first time in the BC Juvenile, but he raced wide from the outside post and just missed in an excellent effort. Expect the likely 2yo champ to follow a similar path as last year’s Derby runner-up Pioneerof The Nile (also Baffert).

Lookin At Lucky is the early favorite for the 2010 Kentucky Derby

2. Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil) – Rolled through the Florida Stallion series, and he will be given every opportunity to make the Derby under the care of new trainer Nick Zito. Look for him at Gulfstream this winter.

3. Noble’s Promise (Cuvee) – Breeders’ Futurity hero had 3-race win streak snapped with BC Juvenile show finish. Ken McPeek has the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park on Dec 19th pegged as his next engagement.

4. Vale Of York (Invincible Spirit) – Surprise BC Juvenile winner brought good turf form to Santa Anita, and he proved he could handle synthetic ground. Godolphin runner is not bred for dirt, but the new track in Dubai (synthetic) should suit him.

5. Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway) – Found much early trouble in BC Juvenile, so his 9th place effort can be forgiven. Had been training well leading up to the Cup, and he’ll get a chance to rebound in the CashCall Futurity. Broke maiden on conventional dirt in Pilgrim Stakes.

6. Homeboykris (Roman Ruler) - Nice stalk and pounce winner of the Champagne for Rick Dutrow. He goes next in the Remsen at the Big A on Nov 28th.

7. American Lion (Tiznow) – Rolled to a sharp maiden win (93 BSF) in a 7f synthetic affair at Keeneland on Oct 18th. Eoin Harty trains the WinStar Farms colt, and he might show up next in the CashCall Futurity.

8. Interactif (Broken Vow) - Made a name for himself on the grass and was last seen finishing a rock solid 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Broke maiden in career bow on the main track, and the versatile Pletcher trainee has been sent to Florida to prepare for his 3yo campaign.

9. Thiskyhasnolimit (Sky Mesa) – Clearly likes Churchill Downs as he graduated there and won the Iroquois when last seen in Louisville. The Steve Asmussen runner goes next in the Kentucky Jockey Club on Nov 28th.

10. Dave In Dixie (Dixie Union) - Looked great in Del Mar debut, and he was not disgraced (6th) versus graded foes in the Norfolk 2nd time out. John Sadler wisely kept him out of the Cup, and he is one to watch for down the road.

Honorable Mention: Aikenite (Todd Pletcher), Dublin (Wayne Lukas), My Time To Star (Dale Romans), Soaring Empire (Cam Gambolati),  Super Saver (Todd Pletcher).

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

If only I was able to turn back the clock to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Pioneerof The Nile was my top that day, and I boxed him in exactas with none other than Mine That Bird.

Fast forward 6+ months to the Derby, and I could not come up with any plausible reason to play The Bird. After finishing 12th in the Cup, he was 2nd and 4th in a pair of New Mexico stakes events.

It’s on to the Preakness in two weeks, and I’ll almost certainly toss the Derby winner. Much more to be written on the 2nd jewel in the near future…stay tuned!

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Rachel Alexandra turned in a brilliant work earlier in the week, and she completely dismantled her foes in the 135th Kentucky Oaks (G1). She has won all five of her routes in effortless fashion, and there is not a three-year-old filly in the land that can make her work up a sweat.

I am sure many Derby trainers are breathing a huge sigh of relief! Don’t know where they go next, but she’ll probably get a bit of a breather before embarking on a summer/fall campaign.

All of the works are complete, and the first Saturday in May has arrived. I have analyzed all twenty horses, and you can view my analysis here .

Also, the editors of Horse Racing Nation have all of the Derby Day stakes action posted in the Plays of the Day section, and they have all of the bases covered if you are looking for anything and everything Derby.

I’ll be back tomorrow for a Derby recap.

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Last minute entrant Nowhere To Hide, trained by former Derby winning trainer Nick Zito, had a two furlong move in :25.40. He has finished 4th in all three graded route tries and is overmatched on the first Saturday in May.

In other Derby news, it was reported that Desert Party did not look particularly good in his morning activity on Thursday. All reports were glowing before that, and I am a bit concerned, but the Godolphin runner remains on my contender list.

General Quarters did not look great either. He has been up and down since arriving at Churchill, and I have no idea how he’ll perform on Saturday.

Based on everything I have seen and read, I Want Revenge, Hold Me Back, and Pioneerof The Nile have made the best impression in overall morning activity at Churchill.

Rain is in the forecast for Derby Day, and my best advice is to see how the track is playing before making any final decisions. If it is wet, some may move up and some may hate it, but many will run their normal race. If you like a horse in the Derby, trust that the connections have him ready to fire a big shot regardless of track condition.

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

I started my Derby longshot list on April 11th, and 4 of my 5 originals picks made the field. Not bad considering all of the defections the past few weeks. Patena did not make it, and wouldn’t it figure that I had him in the Derby future pool…oops! Hopefully he will return to top form later this summer after recovering from an ankle chip.

#5 - Flying Private (50-1) is out in post 20 for Wayne Lukas. He recently had a breathing issue from the Arkansas Derby corrected, and he has trained okay for the Derby. The big thing he has going for him is pedigree power. His sire Fusaichi Pegasus won the Derby, as did damsire Unbridled. He remains eligible for an entry level spot, and as I have stated before, I will use him in trifecta/superfecta wagers.

#4 - West Side Bernie (30-1) is stuck in the one-hole, and he has only had one published work since Wood Memorial because of a mild bout with colic. He has not won since ‘08 Ky Cup Juvenile, but he was 2nd to Derby fav I Want Revenge last time and has the ability to sneak into superfecta.

#3 Musket Man (20-1) landed post two, and he will have to hustle a bit in the early stages to avoid getting shuffled back. He has not been impressive since arriving at Churchill, and his pedigree does not scream ten furlongs. He has a nose for the wire and will try hard throughout, but his luck has likely run out.

#2 Chocolate Candy (20-1) is well posted in stall 11, and he has looked much better recently following a slow start in Louisville. Consistent off the pace type has hit the board in all six synthetic stakes tries.

#1 Hold Me Back (15-1) has been the most impressive Churchill morning glory of my longshot group. I loved his Lane’s End comeback score, and he predictably regressed in Blue Grass runner-up performance. He is training well for this and appears primed to bring his A game. He can surprise if he gets some pace help, and he still must prove he can handle conventional dirt.

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

I Want Revenge fired a four furlong bullet (:47.34) on Tuesday, and he deserves to be favored based on Gotham-Wood Memorial wins and morning activity at Churchill. I will most likely have him in my Top 3…but not on top!

Take The Points has been removed from Derby consideration by Todd Pletcher, who already has Dunkirk (Edgar Prado), Join In The Dance (Chris Decarlo), and Advice (Rene Douglas) set to compete. He will wait for the Preakness.

Atomic Rain (Joe Bravo) sneaks into the 20th spot for Kelly Breen, who also has West Side Bernie. The former worked 4f in :47.20 at Monmouth.

Another defection and Nick Zito makes the big dance with Wood Memorial show finisher Just A Coincidence.

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Chocolate Candy was on the verge of being removed from my Derby longshot list due to his uninspiring morning activity since arriving in Louisville, but he rebounded with a fine five furlongs in :59.24. He galloped out well and remains on my contender list.

Another rock solid work for Pioneerof The Nile. He has looked very good the past week and appears to be coming up to the Derby in fine order.

Friesan Fire (:57.86) was fast early and slow late, and the thinking here is that he is going to attempt a Derby wire job. Larry Jones tried the same fast work/wire job attempt with Hard Spun in the Kentucky Derby a few years back, and he ended up 2nd behind Street Sense.

Todd Pletcher sent out a trio of Derby possibles. Advice is a late runner who showed better than expected speed in his morning activity. Join In The Dance has enough graded earnings to make the field, and he looms a pace factor on the the big day. Take The Points needs one more defection to make the dance, and he worked well with blinkers today.

Flying Private got four panels in :47.40 and finished up in decent fashion. I do not consider the Lukas runner a real win threat but will toss him underneath in trifecta and superfecta wagers.

Mine That Bird went five furlongs in 1:02.06 and finished well enough.

Win Willy did not have a great drill and should have finished better considering he is a late runner.

Eoin Harty waited until the last minute to name a rider for Mr. Hot Stuff, and he gets the services of John Velazquez now that Quality Road is out. It pays to be patient in this game.

Probable Derby fav I Want Revenge has his final work tomorrow.

Kentucky Oaks fav Rachel Alexandra (:46.43) uncorked a big final work, and she is going to be very tough to beat on Friday.

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Square Eddie had his final Derby work on Sunday. He went an easy four furlongs in :50.51, and reports on him have been positive all along. I thought his much needed Lexington prep was perfect, but I am not thrilled about his chances at ten furlongs versus top company. He wheels back quickly and tries conventional dirt 2nd start back from an injury.

Flying Private reportedly had a good gallop, and I still plan on using the Lukas runner in my exotic wagers. Another fine gallop for The Nile as well.

Mr. Hot Stuff went 5f in a minute and change at Santa Anita. Colonel John’s baby bro still needs a rider, and Eoin Harty is waiting as long as possible in case of a late defection.

Advice works on Monday, and Quality Road will have a critical move that will likely determine his Derby status.

Mine That Bird, Join in the Dance, Take the Points, Chocolate Candy, Pioneerof The Nile, and Friesan Fire will all work Monday.

Flat Out was a longshot to make the Derby based on graded earnings, and an injury on Sunday sealed his fate. He will be out of action for four months.

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

If you are looking for Derby contender reports, news, and early odds, check out Horse Racing Nation . They have the Kentucky Derby covered from A to Z.

Back to Saturday drills. West Side Bernie got a much needed four furlong work in :48.22, but he did not finish up strongly and might not be coming up to the big race in top form. Note that he did have a mild case of colic after the Wood Memorial.

Musket Man (1:14.81) did not have his best move either, and he does not have the strongest pedigree, so the Cinderella story might be coming to an end.

Another slow move for Papa Clem (1:29.12), and he struggled late. I thought the Arkansas Derby was one of the weaker preps, and he could be in deep water going ten furlongs against top company.

Desert Party (:59.44) was on the muscle and finished up strongly, galloping out six panels in 1:12.60. I liked him last summer and consider the Godolphin runner a viable contender.

Stablemate Regal Ransom (:59.13) showed keen early interest in his five furlong bullet, and he finished well. He looms a Derby pace factor at the very least.

I Want Revenge and Pioneerof The Nile made favorable impressions once again, and General Quarters reportedly looked much better this time around.

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever