Two horses have dropped from the original list, including Homeboykris. The Rick Dutrow trainee was a disappointing 5^th in the Remsen on Nov 28^th. Thiskyhasnolimit, 6^th in the Kentucky Jockey Club, is also gone from the top ten.

A couple of new shooters have been added to the honorable mention list, starting with Rule. The Todd Pletcher trainee was the 3^rd WinStar Farm colt to win a graded event in the past few weeks. The other two (American Lion, Super Saver) are part of my top ten, and the recent Delta Jackpot (G3) winner is knocking on the door after his wire job win on Dec 5^th.  He added $450k in graded earnings for his winning effort, and that will be more than enough to get him into the Derby starting gate. He will winter in Florida, and his next start has yet to be determined.

William’s Kitten is also one to keep an eye on. The late striding colt was on my radar screen following a visually impressive tally in the off the turf Sunday Silence at Louisiana Downs. A pair of below par synthetic efforts followed, and he returned to conventional dirt with a clear place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) on Nov 28^th.

William's Kitten shown in Louisiana Downs winners' circle. He rallied for the place in Kentucky Jockey club Stakes on Nov 28th.

1. Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) – Tasted defeat for the first time in the BC Juvenile, but he raced wide from the outside post and just missed in an excellent effort. Expect the likely 2yo champ to follow a similar path as last year’s Derby runner-up Pioneerof The Nile (also Baffert). CashCall Futurity on Dec 19th is next.

2. Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil) – Rolled through the Florida Stallion series, and he will be given every opportunity to make the Derby under the care of new trainer Nick Zito. Look for him at Gulfstream this winter.

3. Noble’s Promise (Cuvee) – Breeders’ Futurity hero had 3-race win streak snapped with BC Juvenile show finish. Ken McPeek has the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park on Dec 19th pegged as his next engagement.

4. Vale Of York (Invincible Spirit) – Surprise BC Juvenile winner brought good turf form to Santa Anita, and he proved he could handle synthetic ground. Godolphin runner is not bred for dirt, but the new track in Dubai (synthetic) should suit him.

5. Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway) – Found much early trouble in BC Juvenile, so his 9th place effort can be forgiven. Had been training well leading up to the Cup, and he’ll get a chance to rebound in the CashCall Futurity. Broke maiden on conventional dirt in Pilgrim Stakes.

6. American Lion (Tiznow) – Followed up his sharp Keeneland maiden win with a solid score in the Hollywood Prevue (G3) on Nov 21st. Eoin Harty trains the WinStar Farms colt, and he goes next in the CashCall Futurity.

7. Super Saver (Maria’s Mon) – Moved up from my honorable mention list to the 7^th spot in the top ten with a strong wire job victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill. The Todd Pletcher (WinStar Farm) trainee should only improve with distance and experience.

8. Interactif (Broken Vow) - Made a name for himself on the grass and was last seen finishing a rock solid 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Broke maiden in career bow on the main track, and the versatile Pletcher trainee has been sent to Florida to prepare for his 3yo campaign.

9. Buddy’s Saint (Saint Liam) – Followed up his romping Nashua (G2) tally with another easy score in the Remsen (G2). He is based in New York with trainer Bruce Levine. He will winter in Florida with the Wood Memorial as his early spring goal.

10. Dave In Dixie (Dixie Union) - Looked great in Del Mar debut, and he was not disgraced (6th) versus graded foes in the Norfolk 2nd time out. John Sadler wisely kept him out of the Cup, and he is one to watch for down the road.

Honorable Mention: Aikenite (Todd Pletcher), Dublin (Wayne Lukas), Rule (Todd Pletcher), Soaring Empire (Cam Gambalati), William’s Kitten (Michael Maker)

Image: Stacy Edwards

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

In compiling this early list, I looked for proven graded class and strong breeding, but I also wanted to use promising, lightly raced sorts on the way up. Much will change in the coming weeks, but I had to start somewhere. Please click on the name of each horse to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes news, pedigree, results, and video.

1. Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) – Tasted defeat for the first time in the BC Juvenile, but he raced wide from the outside post and just missed in an excellent effort. Expect the likely 2yo champ to follow a similar path as last year’s Derby runner-up Pioneerof The Nile (also Baffert).

Lookin At Lucky is the early favorite for the 2010 Kentucky Derby

2. Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil) – Rolled through the Florida Stallion series, and he will be given every opportunity to make the Derby under the care of new trainer Nick Zito. Look for him at Gulfstream this winter.

3. Noble’s Promise (Cuvee) – Breeders’ Futurity hero had 3-race win streak snapped with BC Juvenile show finish. Ken McPeek has the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park on Dec 19th pegged as his next engagement.

4. Vale Of York (Invincible Spirit) – Surprise BC Juvenile winner brought good turf form to Santa Anita, and he proved he could handle synthetic ground. Godolphin runner is not bred for dirt, but the new track in Dubai (synthetic) should suit him.

5. Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway) – Found much early trouble in BC Juvenile, so his 9th place effort can be forgiven. Had been training well leading up to the Cup, and he’ll get a chance to rebound in the CashCall Futurity. Broke maiden on conventional dirt in Pilgrim Stakes.

6. Homeboykris (Roman Ruler) - Nice stalk and pounce winner of the Champagne for Rick Dutrow. He goes next in the Remsen at the Big A on Nov 28th.

7. American Lion (Tiznow) – Rolled to a sharp maiden win (93 BSF) in a 7f synthetic affair at Keeneland on Oct 18th. Eoin Harty trains the WinStar Farms colt, and he might show up next in the CashCall Futurity.

8. Interactif (Broken Vow) - Made a name for himself on the grass and was last seen finishing a rock solid 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Broke maiden in career bow on the main track, and the versatile Pletcher trainee has been sent to Florida to prepare for his 3yo campaign.

9. Thiskyhasnolimit (Sky Mesa) – Clearly likes Churchill Downs as he graduated there and won the Iroquois when last seen in Louisville. The Steve Asmussen runner goes next in the Kentucky Jockey Club on Nov 28th.

10. Dave In Dixie (Dixie Union) - Looked great in Del Mar debut, and he was not disgraced (6th) versus graded foes in the Norfolk 2nd time out. John Sadler wisely kept him out of the Cup, and he is one to watch for down the road.

Honorable Mention: Aikenite (Todd Pletcher), Dublin (Wayne Lukas), My Time To Star (Dale Romans), Soaring Empire (Cam Gambolati),  Super Saver (Todd Pletcher).

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

No bias surprises on day two. Early-pressing speed strong in sprints. Turf course favored stalkers and closers.

Day two belonged to Shane Sellers and Steve Asmussen. They teamed up for a hat trick and won the Pontalba with Right To Rule.

The other juvenile stakes race on the card was the Old Hickory, and Comedero lead the field on a merry chase after the defection of Western Smoke.

Got three tops home on Saturday. Had a bit of a frustrating day as I finished 2-3 in a pair of my turf best bets.

Fair Grounds Preview – Nov 8th

A 10-race program will be run at the Fair Grounds on Sunday, and a pair of turf sprints and an allowance turf route are on tap. The skies are expected to be mostly cloudy with highs in the 70’s.

Belend is favored to capture the first turf sprint for Tom Amoss, and Turtle Creek Babe is the one to down in the 9th. The often troubled  Say The Word is the fav in the turf route.

My daily full cards from Fair Grounds are available through Today’s Racing Digest, and I will be posting a daily free pick on their site as well. Click here to view my Sunday free selection from Fair Grounds.

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

No bias surprises on opening day. Speed strong in sprints. Turf course favored patient runners.

James Graham, John Jacinto, and ‘Cisco Torres each booted home a pair.

Much Obliged was made the overwhelming fav in the Blushing K D Stakes, and she lived up to advanced billing with a solid off the pace tally under fine grass rider Francisco Torres. The Malcolm Pierce trainee definitely held a class advantage. Never Retreat was a stubborn 2nd, and the ultra-consistent Category Seven held the show.

A solid start on the analysis front. Got a pair of tops home including best bets Cole’s Music ($10.20) and Snow Delicious ($8.40). Note that my day one analysis (view sample) can now be viewed here.

Fair Grounds Preview – Nov 7th

An 11-race program will be run at the Fair Grounds on Saturday, and a pair of juvenile stakes races are on tap. Party cloudy skies with highs in the 70’s, so expect fast and firm conditions.

The fillies go six furlongs in the Pontalba, and synthetic/turf specialist Greeley’s Rocket is favored to handle dirt and get the job done.

The boys get their turn in the Old Hickory. Comedero and Western Smoke (Asmussen) are the speedsters. Note that Asmussen also has stalker Enumerate, and that one ran in a pair of graded races at the Spa.

My daily full cards from Fair Grounds are available through Today’s Racing Digest, and I will be posting a daily free pick on their site as well. Click here to view my Saturday free selection from Fair Grounds.

Handicapping the Breeders’ Cup?

Use the BC Dashboard featuring over 100 replays, morning lines and handicapping analysis for all 14 races!

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Included in the dozen is Quality Road, who traveled 5f in 1:00.52 at Belmont Park in preparation for the $5 million Classic. The flashy 3yo obviously has talent, but ten furlongs is pushing the envelope, and how will be handle the Pro-Ride surface?

Quality Road will contest the Breeders' Cup Classic for Todd Pletcher

Exciting Juvenile Turf prospect Interactif breezed 4f in :49.14 on Oct 26th. He looked good in winning the Bourbon at Keeneland on Oct 11th.

Pletcher sure is loaded with promising youngsters, and according to clockers, Eskendereya had the move of the day. He worked in company with stablemate and fellow Cup entrant Aikenite. They finished up close together, but former reportedly galloped out strongly.

One baby not going to the Cup but making news was Florida Stallion series hero Jackson Bend. The Calder comet was purchased by Robert La Penta and will move to the barn of Nick Zito. Look for him in 3yo stakes ranks at the Gulf next winter.

Derby winner Mine That Bird uncorked a five furlong Pro-Ride bullet as he continues preparations for the Classic. He was last seen finishing 6th in the Goodwood.

Super Derby winner Regal Ransom (Classic) breezed a visually impressive five furlongs for Godolphin, and Lethal Heat went the same distance in the exact time of :58-2/5 for Barry Abrams. As noted in an earlier post, she might contest the Ladies’ Classic on Nov 6th and the Turf Sprint the following day.

On the international front, sharp conditioner Aidan O’Brien entered Rip Van Winkle in the Classic, and he’s the likely fav in that spot. Barn also has Mastercraftsman, who could go in the Dirt Mile (1st preference) or Classic.

Other Cup entrants from the O’Brien barn include Man of Iron (Marathon), Alfred Nobel (Juvenile), Beethoven (Juvenile), Lillie Langtry (Juvenile Filly Turf), and Viscount Nelson (Juvenile Turf).

We have the 2009 Breeders Cup thoroughly covered on Horse Racing Nation. I am pleased to announce that we have launched the BC Dashboard!

Over 90 video replays. Fields and morning lines for all 14 races. Handicapping race outlook. Historical Race Profiles. Find it all at the BC Dashboard.

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Soul Warrior, who scratched out of the Penn Derby on Labor Day because of a temperature, has recovered and is the likely Super Derby favorite. The Steve Asmussen trainee was last seen downing Ky Derby winner Mine That Bird in the West Virginia Derby. John Velazquez has the mount.

Regal Ransom in the '09 Ky Derby

UAE Derby hero Regal Ransom is probably the one to catch. Godolphin colorbearer was last seen attending the pace and finishing 8th of 19 in the Run for the Roses.

Blame is an interesting entrant for Al Stall Jr., who captured this event last year with My Pal Charlie. Late bloomer won the Curlin Stakes at the Spa last time, and runner-up Gone Astray came back to romp in the aforementioned Penn Derby.

Massone is invading from SoCal for Ron McAnally, and he has placed in multiple graded events. He exits a sharp tally in an optional claiming turf affair, and Garrett Gomez has the call.

The top three from the Super Derby Prelude are expected to come back for more, including winner and Soul Warrior’s stablemate Uno Mas. The improving Electric Alphabet is a live longshot for Cecil Borel, and show finisher Red Lead has hit the board in three straight stakes races. Francisco Torres is scheduled to ride the latter.

Sumo is not 100% to go on Saturday, but he would be a major top three player should he opt for this spot. The Graham Motion trainee was last seen winning the Pleasant Colony Stakes at the Spa.

I will be back tomorrow with program numbers and morning line odds.

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

The former was forced to miss the Travers following minor throat surgery, and the latter will probably shoot for the Jockey Club Gold Cup after a sharp win in the Travers (G1).

We have about seven or eight seriously looking at our event, and that list begins with the Super Derby Prelude top three Uno Mas, Electric Alphabet, and Red Lead.

Uno Mas in Super Derby Prelude post parade

Uno Mas, trained by Steve Asmussen, rallied from off the pace to get the job done in an exciting 3-horse photo in the Prelude. He had been a minor player in the stakes ranks before that and could be ready for the next level following his confidence boosting score.

Electric Alphabet is campaigned by Cecil Borel, and he jumped right into stakes action in the Prelude after breaking his maiden at Churchill. Calvin Borel rode him in all starts before leading rider at Louisiana Downs Don Simington took over the riding duties last time. Would be cool to see him reunite with Calvin.

Red Lead has been pointing to the Super Derby for quite some time, and he received a fine prep in the Prelude. He owns early/pressing speed and should move forward on the 19th.

Blame is a late blooming colt for Al Stall Jr., who saddled last year’s Super Derby winner My Pal Charlie. He was last seen winning the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga.

Duke of Mischief dusted Red Lead and Uno Mas in the Iowa Derby, and he was last seen finishing 5th behind Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell.

Massone is expected to invade from Southern California for Ron McAnally. Garrett Gomez has the call, and he exits a sharp optional claiming turf tally at Del Mar. He was 3rd in the Blue Grass (G1) in April.

Regal Ransom would be an interesting speed threat should he opt for the Super Derby. The Godolphin colorbearer won the UAE Derby in Dubai earlier this year, and he was part of the pace before weakening to 8th in the Kentucky Derby.

Sumo was a sharp stalk and pounce winner of the Pleasant Colony Stakes at the Spa on Aug. 26th. He showed his quality earlier this year splitting General Quarters and Musket Man in a graded event at Tampa Bay.

$1,000 Regular Nominations for the Super Derby close on September 5th, and I’ll be back next week to update the possible field.

Image: Stacy Edwards

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Both surfaces seemed to play fair.

Curt Bourque booted home a pair, and Michelle Lovell saddled two turf winners on the card. She has had an awesome meet! Tony Richey and Al Stall Jr. saddled two winners on the card as well.

I was red hot with six tops getting the job done including bet down longshot play of the day Count On Lynn ($5.40) and best bet Rather Exciting ($6.20).

Apprentice jockey Anna Roberts hit the ground when her mount in the 3rd took a tumble after the race. She was taken off in a stretcher but was walking around the grandstand later in the day. She will probably be back in action tomorrow.

Nice 2nd time out maiden win by Tuscan Chianti. Made that one my top when my original choice Outside Hitter scratched early. Steely Dame was clearly 2nd best and won’t be a maiden much longer.

Weldon saved the ground to nab the finale while my top Ucheap was wide throughout in rock solid place finish. Reverse trips and we have a different outcome!

On the track at Louisiana Downs

August 21st Preview

Weather: Isolated Thunderstorms (30% chance). High 92.

Friday’s 9-race card features three grass races and includes a Pick 6 carryover of $5,407.

Emmie D (3rd race) is my best bet on the Friday card. She ran a big race on a wet surface last time and could be set to graduate.

Silver Mitten (5th race) is my longshot play of the day. She switches surfaces for a sharp turf barn and could do some damage in a wide open event.

Note that my August 21st analysis is complete and posted here. Just click on the Friday Selections and the pdf file will open.

Image: Stacy Edwards

Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

Mine That Bird in the Belmont Stakes

It was a setback for the connections of the Derby winner, and his Travers status is day-to-day. The Chip Woolley trainee will not contest the mid-summer Derby unless 100%, and other options include the Pennsylvania Derby (Sept 7th) and Super Derby (Sept 19th). The timing of the latter seems better, and it would give him seven weeks to prepare for the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita.

Rachel Alexandra drilled a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.37 at Saratoga on August 17th, and her stablemate Kensei went the same distance in 1:01.85. Steve Asmussen and Jess Jackson will discuss future options for the colt and filly, and they now have the three-year-old male title in their sights with the late blooming Kensei, who has reeled off back-to-back graded wins in the Dwyer and Jim Dandy. If he could add the Travers (G1) to his growing resume, he would move to the head of the 3yo male class.

If Kensei goes for Travers glory, then Rachel will likely tackle older males in the Woodward (G1).

Warrior’s Reward tuned up for the Travers with a five furlong bullet in 1:00.26. Calvin Borel will ride if Rachel shows up elsewhere.

Others pointing to the Travers include Florida Derby winner Quality Road, fresh off a track record performance in his Amsterdam comeback at 6.5 furlongs. Belmont winner Summer Bird is waiting in the wings, along with Peter Pan winner and Jim Dandy 3rd Charitable Man. The latter could also change course and shoot for the Penn Derby.

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever

He returned to dust his Amsterdam (G3) foes in track record time earlier this month, and his most recent Travers work was a sharp six furlongs in 1:13 at the Spa on August 16th. He will work again next Sunday, and the ten furlong Travers Stakes will be run at Saratoga on August 29th.

Quality Road sharp in victory!

In other Travers news, Rachel Alexandra and stablemate Kensei will work at Saratoga on August 17th, and a decision on where they go next will be determined later in the week.

Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra was last seen beating males again in the Haskell Stakes, but she has never faced a pace foe as talented as Quality Road, and it will be an interesting challenge to say the least should she opt for the midsummer Derby.

Kensei has burst onto the three-year-old scene with victories in the Dwyer and Jim Dandy, and Steve Asmussen will keep his dynamic duo apart. There are plenty of options for both, including the Pennsylvania Derby and Woodward Stakes.

Belmont hero and Haskell runner-up Summer Bird has had mixed results at the Spa, and his next work is crucial in determining his contender status.

Big Drama, runner-up in the West Virginia Derby, will cut back to an extended sprint in his next start. He recently went :47 and change at Monmouth for an expected start in the King’s Bishop on August 29th.

Haskell show finisher Munnings may also show up in the King’s Bishop, and the seven furlong specialist should love the cut back in distance.

On the Super Derby front, Asmussen second stringer Uno Mas finally found stakes glory in the Super Derby Prelude at Louisiana Downs on August 15th. Recent Churchill maiden winner Electric Alphabet was part of the three-horse photo, along with Iowa Derby show finisher Red Lead.

All three are expected to return for the Grade 2 Super Derby on September 19th, along with Iowa Derby winner Duke Of Mischief and recent Curlin stakes hero Blame. Al Stall Jr. trains the latter, and note that he won the ‘08 Super Derby with My Pal Charlie.

I will be back tomorrow with a Super Derby Prelude Day recap complete with photos.

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Post from: Thoroughbred Fever