Dear Germany

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Mon, Sep 21 - 9:00 am EST | 3 years ago by
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Lines of Departure - Refugee Crisis

Dear Germany:

After the uprising of the 17th June
The Secretary of the Writers Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?

~ Bertholt Brecht, The Solution

So I understand that your rulers and overlords have decided that you have to take in some eight hundred thousand “refugees” from wherever.1 Yes, yes, I know they’ve tried to pretend that these are people fleeing persecution, but you know and I know that most of them are looking for either a better job or a healthy dose of your government’s largesse. Yes, yes, I am sure they show you the picture of the drowned Syrian kid, Alan Kurdi,2 about half hourly to spark your conscience, but you know and I know the kid was killed by his human-smuggling father’s negligence and incompetence,3 as the father went in search of some free dental care at European expense.4 No, no; I am sure you were not consulted, lest you give the wrong answer.

But forget all that. Forget, too, that there is no particularly good reason to believe that this eight hundred thousand will be it. Instead, since I am, so to speak, in the business of warnings; let me warm up my crystal ball and delve a little into your future.5

Ah…I see the fog is dissipating….it’s all becoming clear now…

In the first place, they’re not going to go away of their own volition while young and, given the disparity between your medical system and what they’ve left behind or would have to go to, probably not ever. On the plus side, at least, if they move out of the EU to someplace with a lower cost of living, you won’t have to pay as large a pension.6

In the second place, however your overlords try to play it up, this is not a refugee crisis; this is a Volkswanderung, a migration of peoples, such as Europe hasn’t seen since your collateral ancestors crossed the Rhine one cold New Years Eve. By the way, I misremember; how’d that one work out for the Romans and the Gauls?

Thirdly, these are mostly going to be – perhaps not unlike like those early Germans crossing the Rhine – not families, qua families, but men. One UN report7 claims about two-thirds male. That means different things which are not necessarily mutually exclusive. In some instances, one suspects, families – perhaps very large families, and not necessarily monogamous ones – will be following as soon as their father and husband is settled in nicely. However, though the degree to which it is true is often exaggerated in the west, Islam tends to create at least a mild artificial shortage of marriageable females. Note that young heterosexual men who cannot find women tend to be troublesome.

Fourthly, a lot of these are going to be Christians, ISIS/DAESH being rather more harsh on Christians, who make up about fifteen percent of Syria’s population, than, strictly speaking, the Quran calls for.8 I define “harsh” in this case as things like blowing up monasteries, enslaving women and girls and selling them, beheading of the innocent, shootings, and all around ethnic cleansing.

However, and this is rather important, they’re not all going to be Christians. ISIS almost certainly has people in among the “refugees.” We need not go into a panic and assume that it’s anything like one in fifty.9 For one thing, in those numbers, ISIS needs them where they are, fighting to expand the Caliphate. Secondly, that kind of number is more than would be needed to create any practical amount of terror. Lastly, those kinds of numbers are enough to cause you to crack down in some very severe ways, that would make it all but impossible to employ any terror against you.

So let us, fifthly, be a little calmer and more charitable here. Let us presuppose that none of the women and children are terrorists, though this may be overly optimistic, and that like Marilyn Chambers, Ivory Snow Girl, ninety-nine and forty-four one hundredths of the roughly seventy percent of eight hundred thousand refugees are as pure as the driven snow. Guess what? That means roughly thirty-one hundred likely terrorists in among those eight hundred thousand refugees.

Hmmm, upon pausing to reflect, the utterly incompetent Baader-Meinhof gang drove a much less politically correct Germany batshit crazy for decades. It never had more than fourteen members, and total membership appears to have been – there’s that number again – thirty-one over twenty-seven years. How are you, the much less rigorous and stout and ruthless Germans of today, going to deal with one hundred times more terrorists, who would – they could hardly fail to be – much more competent?

Yeah, go ahead and listen to this for a while.

Interestingly enough, speaking of Baader-Meinhof, I see where one of the founding member, Horst Mahler, has become a neo-Nazi.10 Now isn’t that amusing? Interestingly enough, speaking of Nazis…

Yeah…sixthly, and finally, I cannot imagine any act your lords and masters could have taken more likely to push you back in that direction than to inflict upon you nearly a million – and it will grow – unemployed, inassimilable, terrorist infiltrated, young men, largely deprived of female companionship. Why, the possibilities are endless.

How will it play out? No one can say for certain, but my crystal ball says fanatical rightists will expand their ranks and their degree of fanaticism in response to this – it is, after all, a huge slice of humanity – while fanatical leftists will do the same in response to the rise in fanatical rightism. They will, as they have before, feed on each other. Who will win? I don’t know that, either, but you are still Germans and your instincts will move you to the right.

Who knows, maybe it’ll even last the full thousand years this time.

Sincerely, your friend,



1 And doesn’t Angela look just darling with her party’s future constituent, as she elects a new people to replace you?




5 Speaking of your future, Germany, I’ve talked with my publisher and she’s going to have my dystopian novel, Caliphate, translated into German. For the free English version: And I see you’re downloading it in ever increasing numbers. Good for you. Why? Why because despite sending a fair slice of my gene pool up in smoke, I like you and care about you.

6 If I am reading your retirement system correctly.





Photo by Adam Berry/Getty Images

Tom Kratman is a retired infantry lieutenant colonel, recovering attorney, and science fiction and military fiction writer. His latest novel, The Rods and the Axe, is available from for $9.99 for the Kindle version, or $25 for the hardback. A political refugee and defector from the People’s Republic of Massachusetts, he makes his home in Blacksburg, Virginia. He holds the non-exclusive military and foreign affairs portfolio for EveryJoe. Tom’s books can be ordered through

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